The Republic of Belarus 10 years after the Chornobyl nuclear disaster

by David R. Marples

For the Republic of Belarus, the 10th anniversary of the Chornobyl disaster has been somewhat overshadowed by political clashes between supporters of closer integration with Russia and those in favor of continuing independence, headed by the Belarusian Popular Front. For the struggling nation, however, the impact of the nuclear disaster remains very much at the forefront of the people's minds.

Because of the initial northward thrust of the cloud of radiation released by Chornobyl's No. 4 reactor on April 26, 1986, some 80 percent of Belarusian territory was contaminated by radioactive iodine. Only the northernmost Viciebsk region avoided fallout. Subsequently, the main danger has emanated from strontium-90, plutonium-239 and cesium-137. The former two radioisotopes are concentrated mainly in the southeastern Homiel Oblast, in or adjacent to the evacuated 30-kilometer zone. Cesium, however, is much more far flung. It is found in the Homiel and Mahileu regions, in the central and eastern parts of the Brest region, and in isolated patches in the western part of Miensk Oblast, west of the capital city itself.

If examined in terms of high-level fallout of more than 15 curies of cesium in the soil per square kilometer, then about 60 percent of the total contamination from Chornobyl in the former USSR landed in Belarus. By 1991, when basic decontamination work was completed around the reactor itself, only in Belarus could one find a significant number of settlements in which cesium levels in the soil surpassed 40 curies.

Between 1.9 and 2.2 million Belarusians lived in the areas of the republic (about 20 percent of the total area) affected by significant levels (over 1 curie per square kilometer) of cesium in the soil. Some 440,000 children are included in these totals, including an estimated 31,000 in areas of 15-40 curies of cesium. Evacuations, however, have been spasmodic. About 130,000 people have been moved from their homes in the post-accident period (the figure includes an estimated 25,000 moved in the immediate aftermath of the disaster), but the list of those designated for resettlement is more than twice this figure.

Today, most Belarusians do not wish to be moved. Evacuees living in new settlements have faced acute problems: inadequate housing; lack of heating and sewage facilities in newly constructed apartment blocks; lack of employment in their new hometowns; and sometimes isolation in their new communities.

A particularly forlorn group is the resettlers in the Malinovke-4 region on the outskirts of Miensk. Some 32,000 Chornobyl resettlers live in this city and have formed a small community noted for its high rate of alcoholism and lung cancer rates that are four times the national average.

In 1991, the Belarusian Parliament introduced new laws on living in irradiated zones, lowering the amount of radiation to which humans could be subject from 0.5 rems per year (in addition to the natural background) to 0.1 rems. More recently, the toleration levels have been measured in dose loads rather than the amount of accumulation in the ground. Moreover, compensation has been reduced by inflation and by the need for victims to "re-register" themselves. The 12 percent Chornobyl tax imposed on the profits of all state enterprises has been quietly dropped. The amount of money being expended on Chornobyl in the national budget has also fallen dramatically from more than 20 percent to between 6 and 8 percent.

The critical medical problem today in the republic is thyroid gland cancer among children. It is notable first that thyroid diseases generally have risen significantly since Chornobyl, particularly thyroiditis and goiter of various levels. As in Ukraine, the soil in southern Belarus is iodine-deficient. Thus children were especially susceptible to the radioactive iodine in the atmosphere. Thyroid gland cancer was a rare disease generally in Belarus and cases among children averaged 1-2 per year for the entire republic. Since 1990 the figures have risen alarmingly and follow a particular pattern.

In the first place, virtually all the new cases comprise children who were born or conceived prior to the Chornobyl accident. The annual average has risen consistently since 1990, and it has not peaked. Whereas a recent New York Times article cited 300 cases of thyroid gland cancer among children in all contaminated regions, that figure is belied by statistics from Belarus alone, where the total was 424 at the end of 1995 and is currently approaching 500. Some 60 percent of the cases consist of children living (or conceived) in the Homiel region in late April 1986. A further 25 percent were to be found in the Brest Oblast, close to the city of Pinsk. More recently figures have risen sharply in the city of Miensk itself, perhaps as a result of significant resettlement there. The link between high radiation and thyroid gland cancer seems clear.

Some scientists have made light of this cancer, referring to it as "relatively harmless." The reality is that all sources in Miensk concur that it is a highly aggressive variant that can metastasize rapidly, and must be caught as quickly as possible. That this is not always the case is evident from the three deaths that have occurred thus far. The Belarusians prefer to treat the disease locally, on the grounds that the children who have it must be monitored for the rest of their lives. In addition, republican surgeons prefer to remove only the cancerous part of the thyroid gland; Western specialists usually take out the entire gland. Unfortunately repeat surgery has been required in more than 25 percent of all cases.

Prof. Dillwyn Williams, a specialist from the University of Cambridge Addenbrooke's Hospital, commented on CBC Radio on April 13 that in his view, all children living in contaminated regions today (Belarus, Ukraine and Russia) are at high risk of contracting thyroid gland cancer. Others have surmised a future total of around 10,000 cases, which would signify even in the most optimistic of cases, about 1,000 deaths among children alone.

Belarusian scientists reported their decade-long findings at a March 25-28 conference in Miensk sponsored by the Belarusian Charitable Fund for the Children of Chornobyl and held at the Belarusian Academy of Sciences. It was reported that the morbidity rate for the republic as a whole has risen alarmingly; and that, in several spheres, levels of disease have increased since Chornobyl and in contaminated regions in particular. These include early childhood diabetes; digestive and respiratory problems; and more nebulous ailments such as general fatigue and what one scientist has referred to as "learned helplessness."

The latter is also associated with what has often been termed "Chornobyl AIDS" and has tended to detract from the over-all health consequences as some scientists are able to attribute the disease to fear of radiation or to general stress and tension. Because of this fact, and because the rate of leukemia has begun to rise significantly only of late - and then among clean-up workers - the WHO and other groups have tended to belittle the impact of Chornobyl. The argument has run as follows: if we are unable to attribute a disease directly to Chornobyl radiation, then the conclusion must be that it is not caused by Chornobyl radiation. This, however, is a nonsequitur, implying at best ignorance and at worst outright deception.

Considerable attention has been devoted to the fact that an expected rise in the incidence of leukemia in the republic has not occurred thus far. The director of the Institute of Hematology, Dr. Evgeniy Ivanov, publicized these findings widely in 1992-1993. His conclusions, nonetheless, are not shared by all, and not even by some of his co-workers. One pointed out that figures from the pre-Chornobyl period are unreliable.

Though Dr. Ivanov blames a rise in leukemia in the city of Miensk on industrial pollution, others complain that no account has been taken of the large population of resettlers there. Moreover, leukemia rates have risen constantly, particularly in Homiel region. They are at present within the European average, though in the 75th percentile. A rise in incidence in the future has not been ruled out by international specialists.

In the bimonthly Minsk Economic News, a March article focused on what was described as the future extinction of the Belarusian nation. As a result of a health crisis - fuelled in part by the consequences of Chornobyl but exacerbated by unhealthy lifestyles, inadequate medical care and lack of finances - the population has begun to experience a steady decline. The rate of infant mortality is twice the U.S. average; reproduction is at a low point and is again linked to fears from Chornobyl. The population today stands at 10.1 million and the article projected that the country would not survive far into the 22nd century. Though barely scientific, the article encapsulated the profound pessimism and helplessness that has permeated this small republic.

One must add to the problems that Belarus is facing a deep energy crisis that has led the authorities to find several sites for a possible nuclear power station on Belarusian territory. Though this would ostensibly be based on Western technology, it has still instilled fears in some circles and is bitterly opposed by environmental groups. The authorities argue, somewhat logically, that with three graphite RBMK stations on its borders (Chornobyl itself, Smolensk in Russia and Ignalina in Lithuania), the Belarusians could hardly be in any more peril from a domestic nuclear plant. The Lithuanian station has long been regarded as a sword of Damocles on the northwestern border.

It should be noted also that the problems of Chornobyl are only beginning. Experiments on the impact of cesium on humans, especially children, are at the half-way stage. New clinics have opened in the contaminated zones, especially in Homiel. In fact, the republican health organs have often taken a back seat to international groups which perceive Belarus as an atomic fallout research region par excellence.

In the meantime, the leadership has offered only token interest in Chornobyl-related problems. The Lukashenka administration has a strong political agenda aimed at reintegration, if not the revival, of a Russian-led Union.

The government has actively discouraged non-governmental aid and assistance to Chornobyl victims. Trucks of supplies are often delayed for days at the Polish border; all humanitarian groups were obliged to re-register themselves when President Alyaksandr Lukashenka came into office.

A draft law is in progress that will render it virtually impossible for families to send children abroad for the summer period under the auspices of various organizations devoted to the interests of Chornobyl children. The draft even requests that the "host family" provide evidence that children would be looked after in "ecologically clean" zones. The ostensible reason for such measures is that the president objects to "foreign intrusions" into the republic and perceives such aid as politically subversive, unless it is under government control.

Unlike Ukraine, Belarus does not have a large North American diaspora to coordinate aid. Its government is, frankly, repressive and dictatorial, and Chornobyl is at best a secondary concern today.

The fear expressed in Miensk last month was that once the 10th anniversary is past, then the world's worst nuclear disaster and its victims would officially be over. The reality is a nation in a health and environmental crisis, struggling for existence, and with growing costs of treatment and monitoring of victims.

Dr. David R. Marples is professor of history at the University of Alberta in Edmonton.

Copyright © The Ukrainian Weekly, April 28, 1996, No. 17, Vol. LXIV

| Home Page |