EDITORIAL: Russia's troublesome choice (06/09/96)

EDITORIAL

Russia's troublesome choice

On June 16, Russian voters will be presented with what most observers in the West see as a choice of the lesser of two evils: incumbent "democrat" Boris Yeltsin and Communist Gennadiy Zyuganov. (Or to put it another way, as Grigory Yavlinsky, the democratic reformer running a distant third in the race for president of Russia, said: "There are two devils. One is a small devil - that is Yeltsin. One is a big devil - that is the Communist Zyuganov.")

The latest polls show Mr. Yeltsin gaining support, while Mr. Zyuganov's popularity is slipping. Four of the five polls cited recently by The Economist gave Mr. Yeltsin the lead over Mr. Zyuganov in the first round, and four polls gave the incumbent a victory in the run-off.

Frightened by what a renewal of communism would mean for Russia, diverse supporters are lining up behind Mr. Yeltsin, ranging from the widow of Chechen nationalist leader Dzhokar Dudayev, to Pamiat, the Russian chauvinist organization. In Ukraine, President Leonid Kuchma has come out publicly for President Yeltsin, because "Mr. Zyuganov's victory would be a big question mark. Mr. Yeltsin being elected would mean irreversibility of the [reform] process."

And yet, it is becoming less and less certain who exactly Mr. Yeltsin is, finding himself between the proverbial rock and a hard place (i.e., between Communist Zyuganov and ultra-chauvinist Vladimir Zhirinovsky). And, he has not been able to forge any sort of coalition with democrats, notably Mr. Yavlinsky. Such a coalition will be the key to a second-round victory for President Yeltsin.

Indeed, in an article in The New York Times, Stephen Sestanovich noted that a united front probably will not materialize until after the first round of voting, but, in order to win, Mr. Yeltsin needs the support of those who will not back the Commu-nists. And thus, the analyst writes, "The campaign may teach Mr. Yeltsin a lesson: His return from the dead - the near certainty that he will now make it into the run-off - has been achieved almost entirely through the support of pro-reform voters."

Times columnist William Safire, meanwhile, writes that he is actually rooting for "a widely split vote." That scenario would lead to the following: "... seeing the nationalist and military browns line up behind the Communist reds, Yeltsin would be forced to sign a public contract with the democrats to build his run-off majority. If he then won and did not double-cross, Russia would take the road of reform."

As regards Comrade Zyuganov, the desperate candidate is now looking for compromise with anyone but Mr. Yeltsin. Lately he has begun sending out signals that he is not as bad as his press, and he has asked his party members to tone down the rhetoric. But, the voters should not be fooled (and neither should the West), for Mr. Zyuganov is actually worse than a plain old Communist. Adrian Karatnycky, president of Freedom House, was on the money when he wrote in The New York Times back in March: "Neither Red, nor Pink, Mr. Zyuganov is White - the latest incarnation in a centuries-long tradition of Russian nationalists who celebrate Orthodox Christianity, Slavic unity and imperial expansion." And wouldn't that do wonders for stability in the region and around the world?

To be sure, President Yeltsin appears to be the less evil choice. But the critical words of warning issued by a former Soviet political prisoner, Andrei Sinyavsky, in an op-ed article in The Times, should be noted. "I find Comrade Yeltsin no less repellent, and I am convinced that in today's Russia he is an even greater evil that the current Communists." He added: "It should not be forgotten that the whole world will keep a wary eye on every step taken by a Zyuganov administration, whereas Mr. Yeltsin is forgiven for everything, from the shelling of Parliament to the Chechnya war."

In the end, the principal message that should be heard around the world is that, no matter who wins the presidential contest in Russia, Russia will continue to be troublesome. Therefore, the world had better keep on its toes.

| Home Page |