Former ambassador to Ukraine predicts leftist gains in elections (03/01/98)

Former ambassador to Ukraine predicts leftist gains in elections

by Yaro Bihun
Special to The Ukrainian Weekly

WASHINGTON - William Green Miller, who returned here in January after four years as the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, says that leftist parties are expected to gain some seats in the March 29 elections to the Verkhovna Rada, but not the two-thirds votes needed to dominate the legislature.

Ambassador Miller shared his views on the upcoming elections during a February 11 discussion organized by the American-Ukrainian Advisory Committee of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

He said the election campaign to the Verkhovna Rada is heavily influenced by the example of the Duma elections in Russia, which saw a shift to the left because of widespread dissatisfaction with the results of change and reforms.

These same problems and discontent are evident in Ukraine, he said, where the transition from the old Soviet system has been difficult and the benefits of the change are not yet evident enough for the populace as a whole. He pointed out that the standard of living in Ukraine is at one-quarter of what it was at the time of independence, wage arrears extend five to six months, and the government and international financial institutions appear unable to solve these problems.

These conditions and the new electoral law will affect election results, he said.

"How the parties will shake out even in this past month is not at all certain," he said. The Communists, Socialists and Agrarians "will do reasonably well" due to their organizational strength, Mr. Miller said. Most analysts expect them to pick up more seats, but not enough to get a controlling two-thirds of the Rada, he added.

Ambassador Miller pointed to "one important variant" in the pre-election analyses: the alliance between the leftists and former Prime Minister Pavlo Lazarenko's well-financed Hromada Party.

"If the coalition between [Socialist leader Oleksander] Moroz and Lazarenko and the Communist leaders hold, they could be in a dominant, overwhelming position constitutionally, and they could make life very difficult for the presidency - for [Leonid] Kuchma personally, and for the power of the president as an institution - through the two-thirds amendment process," he said. And this possibility has aroused the concern "of all those who are concerned about Ukraine's democratic future."

Ambassador Miller said he sees the elections affected also by the introduction of Russian-style election campaign tactics and techniques and the use of money and television, as well as other media.

He pointed out that the power of money has become an issue in the campaign. "The ability of large amounts of money to turn out enough signatures, for example, in the case of the Hromada Party, is a case in point," Mr. Miller said. "This was a heavily financed campaign and successfully so."

Ambassador Miller said the deciding issues of the election campaign are stability and Ukraine's relationship with Russia.

The Ukrainian electorate, he explained, is sophisticated and realizes that, no matter who is elected, hardship will continue for the next few years and that "it is a good thing to forebear rather than to rebel."

With respect to Russia, he said, while the validity of Ukrainian independence has not been shaken, there is a growing belief that "it is necessary to have extensive economic relations with Russia to an even greater degree than is now the case."

"But I do not see - except in some remote corners of Crimea, perhaps in some border areas - any significant desire for a reunion with Russia," he added.

Complicating the elections, especially for the centrist parties, is the plethora of some 40 parties that tend to vitiate one another in the campaign, he said. The expected party grouping resulting from the new election law will come about only after the election, he said. In the meantime, there is a lot of individual dialogue, deal making, grass-roots campaigning, and "an enormous amount of recrimination, threats of exposure of corruption" - in short, "a messy campaign," he said.

Nonetheless, the ambassador added, "it's a very healthy, democratic campaign." It's not only a struggle between personalities, he said, it's about ideas, about the future of the country. "It's a serious democratic engagement,"

The election will be all the more difficult because there are an average of 12 to 14 candidates running for each Rada seat, he said. And this fact, like the new election law, favors established, well-organized parties, such as the Communists.

Ambassador Miller said he sees the role of the West as "extremely important" in these elections.

American support for Ukraine has been appreciated "from left to right," he said. The United States is seen by all to be a "steadfast friend" who helped Ukraine through some very difficult times, when it could have suffered economic collapse "and been forced to give up some of its sovereignty in order to get through some of the present difficulties."

The U.S. position in the elections is well understood, he said. "We support no particular candidate, but we support those who are for the rapid reform of Ukraine and its further progress as a democratic state."

Ambassador Miller said he sees Ukraine as being half way through its transition period. The coming election will be the last in which the old order will have a dominant say, and it will pave the way for the next group of post-Soviet political leaders. And during this transitional period, he stressed, Western assistance, especially American assistance, "will remain crucial" over the next several years.

"Ukraine is a case where the assistance that's been given has been decisive, and it has been successful. And it's been modest," he added. "So it seems to me that the United States has the capacity to continue the levels of support it's given in the past, and, in fact, should look to increase those levels in order to ensure a successful outcome to this transition."

Ukraine must solve many problems in the transition, Mr. Miller said, citing privatization as an example. Thus far it has resulted in what he called "first-stage oligarchies," the growth of mafia money, the transformation of state power into financial power, and the absence of equity in the distribution of state assets. "And this is an area where I think we have to pay far more careful attention," he said.

Another very serious problem area is the collapse of social services - health care, education, law and order, and cultural life - where, he suggested, outside groups should target their activities.

"We need to do everything possible to assure that the economy develops in an equitable and prosperous way. And I think we have the capacity to do that," he said.

Mr. Miller characterized the openness in the U.S.-Ukraine relationship as "remarkable." The two sides can address any issue "in a direct, immediate fashion," he said. "And we have found - and I think it's to the credit of our relationship - that the Ukrainians react in a fully democratic, independent way."

"So I think we have a real strategic partner, a partnership with a people of great strength, of great character and who have been tested by fire," he said. "We really need to continue every effort to support Ukraine."

Mr. Miller praised the hosting CSIS American-Ukrainian Advisory Committee for the very important role it played in "bringing to bear the best of our thinking about the new world following the end of the Cold War" and in fostering "the bipartisan approach to Ukraine that has been so helpful."

He called on the CSIS not to declare victory and end the committee's work. "The assistance that you've given over the past several years is precisely what's going to be needed - not in equal measure, but, I think, even more, as Ukraine goes through the final stages to its final destination as an independent state."

He also praised the work in Ukraine of such organizations as the International Foundation for Election Systems, the Eurasia Foundation and the Soros Foundation as well as the work of Ukrainian diaspora foundations, which have had a "profound and important impact" on Ukraine's development.