ANALYSIS: Ukraine straddles the new divide (01/03/99)

ANALYSIS

Ukraine straddles the new divide

by Christopher Walker
RFE/RL Newsline

Despite internal weaknesses and a range of external challenges, Ukraine has registered a number of impressive foreign-policy achievements since gaining independence in 1991.

In order to do so, it has had to juggle demands, as a result of an unstable and unpredictable Russian Federation to the east, unsteady neighbors to the north and south (Belarus, Romania and Moldova), and the expanding NATO and European Union blocs to the west. Whether Ukraine will be able to maintain this level of performance in its foreign policy over the longer term remains to be seen.

While the external demands posed by its neighbors are substantial, Ukraine is equally threatened - in terms of its democratic development and stability - by its inability to settle its own domestic affairs.

In an effort to normalize regional relations, Ukraine has concluded several important agreements with neighboring countries. Those pacts include a Joint Statement on Mutual Reconciliation with Poland, a Treaty on Good Neighborly Relations and Cooperation with Romania, and, following a nearly four-year delay, a Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership with Russia.

At the same time, Ukraine has slowly cultivated closer relations with the West.

The NATO-Ukraine Charter on a Distinctive Partnership signed at the Madrid Summit in July 1997, established a new framework for NATO-Ukraine relations. Recognizing Ukraine's unique position in the region, the charter establishes a "distinctive partnership" between NATO and Ukraine. The expansion of the alliance has been a difficult question for Ukraine, as Russia has made clear its opposition to further NATO expansion. While Russia continues to view NATO as a threat, Kyiv's position has shifted over the last several years. In July 1998, Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Borys Tarasyuk said Ukraine sees NATO enlargement as a "process of expanding the area of stability and democracy."

It is not yet clear whether the majority of Ukrainians believe the potential benefits of greater cooperation with NATO - or possible future admission to the alliance - outweigh the costs. Russia's own instability and deviation from the path of democratization may provide Ukrainian leaders with further arguments for exploring still deeper relations with Western security alliances.

Thus, Ukraine is faced with the challenge of developing relations with the West without overly antagonizing Russia. Such antagonism would entail several risks, especially since Ukraine is still heavily reliant on Russian trade and energy resources.

Early last year, Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma blamed Moscow for the poor state of Russian-Ukrainian relations, claiming that Russia's "biased, prejudiced attitude toward Ukraine has intensified." He added that Russia views Ukraine as a constituent part of the federation or at least as existing within the Russian sphere of influence.

With Ukraine moving more perceptibly toward closer relations with the West, it is not unreasonable to expect Russia's insecurities to intensify. Much of Russia's political elite has not accepted Ukraine's post-Soviet status as an independent, sovereign state. Of all the former republics, the loss of Ukraine, has arguably been the most difficult for Russians to swallow.

The issue of ethnic Russians in Ukraine is of potential concern. Post-Soviet Russia is a nation-state that has 25 million ethnic Russians outside its borders - 11 million of whom live in Ukraine. The treatment of ethnic Russians in the former republics has been a controversial issue for Russian nationalists. Ukraine's leadership has wisely refrained from pushing too hard on issues that could prompt a reaction from ethnic Russians in Ukraine or be used as a pretext by Russian nationalists looking to stir the ethnic pot. In Crimea, where ethnic Russians are in the majority, the threat of unrest is greatest.

In general, Ukrainian-Russian discussions of such thorny issues as the payment of outstanding debts, the negotiation of energy agreements and questions of European security, have been quite tough and often heated but have never slid out of control. However, Russia's internal situation is fluid and volatile, as is Ukraine's. And neighboring Belarus, which has distinguished itself by demonstrating belligerence in international relations, might complicate Ukraine's relationship with Russia, not to mention the entire regional security order.

Unlike Belarus, whose main foreign-policy objective has been to pursue a rather flimsy union arrangement with Russia, Ukraine has seized opportunities to settle territorial claims and to otherwise ameliorate differences with its neighbors. Its pre-1991 role as the westernmost tenant of the former Soviet Union has been transformed into that of eastern-most flank of the still evolving new Europe. As a result, Ukraine is faced with a wide range of responsibilities. Considering the relative immaturity and fragility of the Ukrainian state, Kyiv has so far handled this challenge with considerable dexterity.

Christopher Walker is manager of programs at the European Journalism Network.

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