NEWS ANALYSIS: Belarus holds alternative election (05/30/99)

NEWS ANALYSIS

Belarus holds alternative election

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Newsline

Originally, it seemed like a good idea to hold an alternative presidential poll in Belarus. From a legal point of view, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka's term expires on July 20. The new Constitution, introduced by the November 1996 referendum, extended his term for another two years and authorized him to disband the democratically elected Parliament. That referendum was conducted and enforced with such flagrant violations of the law and democratic norms that no European organization has recognized its outcome.

All European countries, except Russia, recognized the 50 deputies of the Supreme Soviet who have remained loyal to the abolished 1994 basic law as Belarus's legitimate Parliament. Indeed, it was the Supreme Soviet that decided to hold presidential elections on May 16 and to empower the Central Election Commission, another body that was democratically and legitimately elected before the 1996 referendum, to organize them. The commission is headed by Viktar Hanchar.

Highlighting the extraordinary character of these elections, neither of the two candidates was physically present during either the election campaign or the voting. Zyanon Paznyak, who was granted political asylum in the U.S. in 1996, did not make an appearance in Belarus. The other hopeful, Mikhail Chyhir, was jailed by the authorities six weeks before election day on charges of issuing a dubious bank loan in 1994.

As widely expected, the authorities declared the elections illegal and warned the opposition not to "conspire" to depose the legal government. But they seemed to be at a loss about how to respond as the opposition election initiative gained momentum. By mid-April, some 14,000 people had volunteered to take part in regional election commissions, most of them from Mr. Paznyak's Belarusian Popular Front (BNF).

European organizations, including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, had reservations about the opposition election initiative. Even before NATO's intervention in Yugoslavia, which shifted European attention away from Belarus to the Balkans, it became clear that the OSCE would not send its observers to the elections, nor would the ballot provide an internationally recognized new president for Belarus. But the elections nevertheless offered the opportunity of a "vote of no confidence" in President Lukashenka and of dispelling the widespread belief that his regime has strong popular support.

Owing to the impossibility of setting up stationary polling stations, Mr. Hanchar's commission decided to send pollsters with ballot boxes to voters' homes over the 10 days preceding election day. While the law does not provide for such a method of voting for the electorate as a whole, it was nonetheless deemed expedient and effective, given the unique character of the elections.

However, heavy criticism of the voting stemmed not from the authorities but from Mr. Paznyak, who argued that the voting procedures were illegal and that the turnout figures had been falsified. Mr. Paznyak also accused Messrs. Hanchar and Chyhir of seeking to implement a Moscow-sponsored plan to replace the "true opposition" - that is, the BNF - with one subservient to the Kremlin. According to Mr. Paznyak, Mr. Hanchar intended to falsify election results in favor of Mr. Chyhir in order to install him as a new opposition leader and eliminate the BNF from Belarus's political scene. Mr. Paznyak withdrew his candidacy from the elections on May 14. While the BNF decided to continue the election initiative, some activists began calling on their regional colleagues to withdraw from the ballot.

Mr. Hanchar's commission pronounced a somewhat contradictory verdict on May 19. The elections were deemed valid with regard to turnout: just over 4 million voters, or 53 percent of the total electorate. But Mr. Hanchar cited pressure from the authorities, the absence of conditions for free election campaigning, and Mr. Paznyak's "violation of the election law" as reasons for declaring the election as a whole invalid. The commission announced it will organize another presidential poll within three months.

In the end, the shadow election initiative, which was intended to weaken the autocratic regime in Belarus has significantly damaged the opposition. Many oppositionists have already branded the elections "scandalous."

First, it is highly probable that the BNF - the most influential opposition group in Belarus - will split and become mired in mutual recriminations.

Second, it seems that the efforts of many thousands of regional election activists - who risked arrest, the loss of their jobs and other official retributions - have been squandered. It is unlikely that in the near future, the opposition will be able to re-mobilize such a large number of "field operators."

Third, Mr. Hanchar's political career seems to have ground to a halt. One Belarusian independent newspaper speculated that the "scandalous" outcome of the election was deliberately planned by Mr. Hanchar and Supreme Soviet Chairman Syamyon Sharetski. It claimed that after July 20 Mr. Sharetski intends to become head of state (in accordance with the provision of the 1994 Constitution dealing with a situation in which the country does not have a legitimately elected president) and offer the post of prime minister to Mr. Hanchar.

A major flaw in this scenario, however, is how Messrs. Hanchar and Sharetski will persuade President Lukashenka to make room for them. Moreover, without the support of the BNF, Mr. Hanchar may find there is even less room for him in the Belarusian political arena than there was before the election.

Finally, the vote has weakened, rather than strengthened, the opposition's position that the authorities should enter a dialogue with the opposition. President Lukashenka has been given a powerful and scathing argument to fend off such a dialogue - namely, that oppositionists should agree among themselves first before seeking to talk to him.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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