EDITORIAL: Where is Putin headed? (01/30/00)

EDITORIAL

Where is Putin headed?

Just who is Vladimir Putin and where will he lead the Russian Federation? Whether he has the ability to guide the floundering but once mighty state has been the subject of intense scrutiny in the world press since the former KGB operative replaced Boris Yeltsin as president on the eve of the new year.

That he is wily is indisputable: to rise from a regional leader in St. Petersburg to the top of the Kremlin in under two years takes cunning and some smarts.

But what is not known in the aftermath of his sudden and unexpected ascension to Russia's top post is whether his plans are to lead the vast country into an autocratic mode or to work to bring about a truly open democracy. And, most importantly for Ukraine, does he have visions of the return of empire?

What is troubling is that many Russians indeed do long for their own Pinochet to bring some order to everyday life in the country, which today is overrun by organized crime syndicates and common street thugs, and beset by economic problems that are deeper than those of Ukraine.

With his straight-laced, taskmaster's demeanor and his KGB credentials, Mr. Putin fits the bill. Throw in the determined manner in which he has led the onslaught in Chechnya, a conflict that Russians feel must be won lest the country lose its self-image and international respect and it becomes easy to understand why Mr. Putin retains so much popularity in political surveys.

However, as Russians become ever more nationalistic and increasingly long for the empire they once held (be it Soviet or tsarist), the threat grows that the federation may attempt to assert itself outside its present borders, and that would mean trouble for Ukraine. Lenin years ago explained the importance of Ukraine to a strong Moscow, when he stated that without one there cannot be the other.

That Mr. Putin, who has expressed his intention to continue with the democratization of his country and to quicken the pace of economic reforms, decided to support Communist Gennadii Selezniov for the post of chairman of the State Duma only shows that his democratic inclinations and declarations are questionable.

As Michael Wines said in a January 13 article in The New York Times, "an obvious answer - and one that democrats do not want to believe - is that Mr. Putin is less bothered with ideology than with achieving his ultimate end: consolidating power."

Mr. Wines properly noted that the backroom deal that allowed Mr. Selezniov to hold onto his position only prompts the question: of what else is Mr. Putin capable? Russia has a long history of unscrupulous and deceitful autocratic leaders, and they were all bad news for Ukraine.

Given that, we must note that Ukrainian authorities have raised no red flags, nor shown any concern over the actions of the new Russian president.

In an interview with the highly respected Kyiv newspaper Zerkalo Niedieli on January 15, Ukraine's President Leonid Kuchma said that he believed the new Russian president wants "for Ukraine to be a real strategic partner in their understanding of this word."

Mr. Kuchma did not explain the phrase "in their understanding of this word," but he did not warn of any threat of a return of Russian imperialism either.

However, he did assert that Russia must quit the role of big brother and build its relationship with Ukraine on an equal basis. "If Russia pursues its own ends in relations with Ukraine and other countries of the former Soviet Union, there will be no friendship and love," he explained.

Last week, after returning from his first meeting with President Putin, Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko said that "today both sides - on the government and on the presidential level - are showing their desire to make rational our relations, to make them effective and fair and beneficial to both sides."

Those are comforting words for now, as Mr. Putin slowly reveals who he is and for what he stands.

While continuing to build its strategic relations with Moscow, Kyiv must remain wary of Kremlin efforts to encroach on Ukrainian sovereignty and independence in direct relations and vis-à-vis the Commonwealth of Independent States, which Mr. Putin now heads.

Ukraine must remain on guard that the dormant Russian bear in all its imperial ferocity may still awake from his slumber, for it will be one hungry animal and Ukraine may still be its favorite food.

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