ANALYSIS: Will Yuschenko survive the winter? (10/01/00)

ANALYSIS

Will Yuschenko survive the winter?

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

There is no good news in Kyiv nowadays for Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko. Winter is looming in Ukraine, and Ukrainian commentators are expecting an acute shortage of energy and fuel. Vice Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has said there will be no problems heating Ukraine's apartment buildings this winter, but the government has ordered emergency purchases of coal in Poland and Russia, ignoring costlier domestic supplies from Ukrainian coal mines, which have not paid wages for months.

The government has recently paid all pension arrears, a $100 million installment of Ukraine's enormous debt to the International Monetary Fund and $56 million in interests on its Eurobonds - a remarkable achievement, in view of the fact that it has not been given any foreign credits over the last year. However, commentators point out that these payments were made not from budget revenues but from credits from the National Bank, meaning that the government's domestic debt has increased, even if the foreign one has been somewhat reduced.

Thus, it is only a question of time before both President Leonid Kuchma and the Parliament begin looking for those responsible for another Ukrainian winter of discontent. Mr. Kuchma's usual practice to dispel social dissatisfaction was to blame the country's problems on either the Parliament or the government, or both at once. This time such a ruse may prove inapplicable. The Verkhovna Rada has a pro-presidential majority and, in both practice and theory, does what the executive wants it to do.

As for Prime Minister Yuschenko's possible ouster as a scapegoat, such a move may complicate Kyiv's relations with the IMF, which has repeatedly indicated that it is in favor of Mr. Yuschenko leading the Ukrainian government. It is rather unlikely that President Kuchma would risk an open conflict with the institution that, apart from urging market reforms in Ukraine, has sustained the country's financial stability and liquidity throughout his presidency.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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