ANALYSIS: Poll shows Ukrainians distrust leaders (03/25/01)

ANALYSIS

Poll shows Ukrainians distrust leaders

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

PRAGUE - Ukraine's Oleksander Razumkov Center of Economic and Political Studies conducted a poll among 2,037 respondents in all Ukrainian regions in late February and early March, asking them a number of questions about their political preferences. Generally, the poll confirmed what had been known before, namely, that Ukrainians remain deeply confused about what should be done to improve the situation in the country, as well as extremely distrustful of their leadership and political elite.

However, the poll also showed that the current anti-presidential opposition - grouped in the Ukraine Without Kuchma movement and the Forum for National Salvation - cannot count on decisive social support either.

The proposal of the anti-presidential opposition that Ukraine should become a parliamentary republic with a largely ceremonial president, or no president at all, was supported by 16.9 percent of respondents; 46.1 percent were against it; while 37 percent were unable to decide on the issue.

The idea of a parliamentary-presidential republic was viewed more favorably: 30.2 percent supported it; 27.4 percent were against it; and 42.4 percent did not provide a definite answer.

Answering the question about who should be afraid of the Ukraine Without Kuchma movement and the Forum for National Salvation, 46.7 percent of respondents mentioned President Leonid Kuchma and the state officials who were secretly taped by presidential bodyguard Mykola Melnychenko; 13.6 percent said the groups threaten oligarchic clans; 15.6 percent mentioned society in general; 11.8 percent said the threat was directed against Ukrainian citizens; and 6.9 percent mentioned state bodies.

According to 13.8 percent of respondents, the anti-presidential opposition is no threat to anybody, while 12.3 percent were unable to answer the question.

The center found that the activity of Prime Minister Viktor Yuschenko is supported by 26.7 percent of Ukrainians (27.2 percent said they do not support him); President Kuchma by 11.4 percent (negative rating: 43.8 percent); the government by 9.7 percent (negative rating: 38.8 percent); and the Parliament by 4.5 percent (negative rating: 49.4 percent).

Commenting on why the positive rating of Mr. Yuschenko is higher than that of the government by nearly three to one, Center of Economic and Political Studies head Anatolii Hrytsenko said, "this testifies to the fact that people do not perceive the government as a team of like-minded persons."

According to the poll, if parliamentary elections were held right now, only the Communist Party would be able to overcome the 4 percent voting threshold necessary to win parliamentary seats.

The Communist Party could count on support from 14 percent of Ukrainians, while other parties would obtain far less support: the Democratic Party, 3.7 percent; the Social Democratic Party (United), 3 percent; the National Democratic Party, 2.9 percent; the Democratic Union, 2.5 percent; the Popular Rukh (Udovenko), 2.1 percent; and the Fatherland Party, 1.5 percent.

Of those polled, 36 percent said they would support no party, while 22.7 percent were unable to define their party preferences.

The poll also found that 29 percent of Ukrainians believe Kyiv's foreign policy has recently taken a pro-Russia slant to the detriment of Ukraine's relations with the West. Of that number, 50.2 percent assessed this fact positively, 29.7 percent negatively, and 16.3 percent neutrally.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

| Home Page |