EDITORIAL: Post-Yuschenko Ukraine (05/06/01)

EDITORIAL

Post-Yuschenko Ukraine

It is not the end of the world, as one member of the Social Democratic Party (United) put it rather caustically during May Day celebrations in Kyiv when asked to comment about the dismissal of the Yuschenko government on April 26, which his party wholeheartedly organized.

Truly it isn't from a political point of view. Although a nominee for prime minister has yet to be announced, the U.S. and the European Union already have released statements underlining that they are ready to cooperate with whatever government is formed in Ukraine in the next weeks. Meanwhile, President Leonid Kuchma has expressed his intention to continue with the reforms and policies the government of Viktor Yuschenko began during its 16-month existence and to "deepen them."

The problem here is the reasons given for sending the Yuschenko government packing and what the business oligarchs have in mind for Ukraine's future. In statements issued to explain what was, in essence, a non-violent putsch against the prime minister, leaders who supported the motion of no confidence tried to convince Ukrainians that Mr. Yuschenko had failed to bring about tangible growth of the Ukrainian economy. They maintained that he was pursuing a path directed by the West and was not keeping Ukraine's interests in mind and, therefore, he had to go.

What they saw no reason to mention in the press (which they control in Kyiv) is that they also had decided they needed one of their own to take Mr. Yuschenko's seat to give them access to administrative and financial resources in the run-up to parliamentary elections scheduled for next March.

Mr. Kuchma was not as keen as some have said on the dismissal of Mr. Yuschenko. He may not have liked Mr. Yuschenko and was envious of the prime minister's saint-like reputation among the populace, but he understood the political capital his prime minister carried not only in the eyes of the West, but also before his electorate. Also, Mr. Yuschenko had supported the president during the darkest days of the tape scandal. But Mr. Kuchma also owed a large political debt to the oligarchs, who not only supported him through those same days, but also helped get him re-elected in 1999. So, the political decision he made was not difficult to predict.

The highly respected weekly newspaper, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia reported that the oligarchs have already rooted themselves deeply in the halls of power and what they want now is to grab authority. With absolute power in hand, the oligarchs could go in one of two very opposite directions: either develop the democratic and egalitarian society, or go in the opposite direction, which is a much simpler and more tempting path should they achieve an unbridled grip on power.

Many of the oligarchs are inclined to go the way of the second option, or so believes at least one high-ranking official in the caretaker government of Mr. Yuschenko. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said he is certain that the oligarchs - after taking the prime ministership in their hands and then achieving a resounding victory in the March 2002 elections to Parliament, which will set them up nicely for the presidential elections the next year - will then see no need for the facade of a free press or even of democracy, because they will have no need for the West.

Today their business interests lie almost completely with Russia and Moscow, either directly or in partnership with Russian businessmen. Also, many of them are persona non grata in some countries of the West, have no right to visit there and therefore no need to maintain relations with that part of the world or to comply with bothersome demands for democracy and the rule of law.

There is also fear among the national democratic forces that the oligarchs would go so far as to move towards reunion with Russia to consolidate their close business relations and rid sister companies of tiresome and profit-draining taxes and surcharges. An official in the Yuschenko Cabinet went so far as to state that he would not be surprised to see Ukraine drawn into a confederation of some sort with the Russian Federation and Belarus within two to three years. And that gives real cause for concern.

It is not the end of the world. Of course not. But there are serious reasons to ask what Ukraine's future might be in the grand plans of its business elite. And most certainly a very real threat exists that this is the end of what were the first positive strides toward a European Ukraine by a Ukrainian government in nearly 10 years of independence. Regardless of what Mr. Kuchma said.

Perhaps that movement will continue, but now merely more tentatively. That would be bearable. We only hope the government doesn't change course and head towards Moscow.

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