ANALYSIS: The Chernomyrdin nomination (05/27/01)

ANALYSIS

The Chernomyrdin nomination

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

Russian President Vladimir Putin made a surprising move last week by appointing Viktor Chernomyrdin as Russia's ambassador to Kyiv in place of Ivan Aboimov.

Mr. Chernomyrdin belongs to the heavyweights of the Russian political scene: he was a prime minister in 1992-1998 under Russian President Boris Yeltsin and before that post he headed Russia's gas monopoly, Gazprom.

"The time has come for us to take a serious approach to the development of the relationship with one of our essential partners, Ukraine, and it is essential to create the indispensable preconditions for that, including staff changes. ... It would hardly be possible to find a person who knows so well the weak and the strong sides of the Russian economy and all of this about Ukraine as well," President Putin commented on his decision regarding Mr. Chernomyrdin.

Simultaneously, Mr. Putin made Mr. Chernomyrdin the Russian president's "special representative for the development of Russian-Ukrainian trade and economic ties."

Mr. Chernomyrdin said the proposal to become Russia's envoy in Ukraine was "unexpected" by him, but added that he is "not afraid" to move from Moscow to Kyiv. "It is not the first time I am to leave Moscow. The main thing [for me] is my job, not the place of residence. I love Russia and respect Ukraine," Interfax quoted him as saying. Many Russian and Ukrainian media noted that Mr. Chernomyrdin's wife is a native Ukrainian.

Many commentators in Russia and Ukraine see Mr. Chernomyrdin's appointment as an openly political move by President Putin, who is allegedly seeking to increase Russia's political influence in Ukraine and to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian disputes over Russian gas transit across Ukraine and the payment for Russian gas supplies (according to different estimates, Ukraine owes Russia between $1.4 billion and $2 billion).

"Of course, this appointment has to do with the [future] ownership of the gas transport system of Ukraine, and with the fight between Gazprom and Shell for control of this system. [Chernomyrdin] is the former head of Gazprom and has always defended the interests of this corporation. His appointment means that Gazprom is very serious in its intention to defend its positions," Kirill Frolov of Russia's CIS Institute told RFE/RL.

Ukrainian political analyst Anatolii Hrytsenko told RFE/RL that Mr. Chernomyrdin's behind-the-scenes experience qualifies him for finding a pragmatic solution to the gas dispute. "He's a man who knows all the legal and shadowy schemes that allowed Russian and Ukrainian businessmen to build their capital in the early 1990s. He's a man who knows the economic interests of all the [players] involved on the Ukrainian side. He's a man who will have direct contact with the administration and president in the Kremlin - and not only through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. I think he will add pragmatism and a practical approach to solving economic problems," he said.

But some Ukrainian politicians and observers see Mr. Chernomyrdin's appointment as a threat to Ukraine's economic and even political independence.

"This is an attempt to establish an even stronger diktat of the Russian economy over the Ukrainian one," Rukh leader Yurii Kostenko said.

And Kyiv-based political scientists noted that "Mr. Chernomyrdin's appointment [means] that Ukraine has lost some part of its sovereignty. All weak countries are loosing their sovereignty in the context of globalization, but we are doing it rapidly and in an Eurasian direction. ... Now the Russian Embassy [in Ukraine] will become a center of power, one of the centers of government in Ukraine that will influence Ukrainian political decisions."

RFE/RL correspondents Sophie Lambroschini and Askold Krushelnycky contributed to this report.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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