ANALYSIS: Should Lukashenka be considered the legitimate president of Belarus? (09/16/01)

ANALYSIS

Should Lukashenka be considered the legitimate president of Belarus?

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

The Central Election Commission of Belarus announced on September 10 that President Alyaksandr Lukashenka overwhelmingly won his re-election the previous day, garnering no less than 75 percent of the vote. His rival, unified opposition candidate Uladzimir Hancharyk, obtained a mere 15 percent.

In a statement issued the same day, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said Belarus's electoral process had "fundamental flaws." Europe's election watchdog noted that the authorities did everything possible to block the opposition, including ruling by decree, failing to ensure the independence of the election administration, failing to properly control early voting and creating a campaign environment that was seriously detrimental to the opposition. The statement also said the authorities launched a campaign of intimidation against opposition activists, domestic observers and independent media, as well as a smear campaign against international observers.

The U.S. State Department was far harsher in its assessment of the balloting in Belarus stressing that "Lukashenka has merely used a facade of elections to engineer a meaningless victory for himself." The U.S. State Department said the election cannot be internationally recognized. Washington pledged to consult with the OSCE on what steps to take to restore democracy in Belarus.

How many people really voted for Mr. Lukashenka will most likely remain a mystery. The authorities and election officials prevented independent monitors from tabulating precinct-by-precinct votes and offering an independent picture of the vote. At the same time, the use on a mass scale of a controversial early voting procedure has spawned widespread suspicions that the authorities may have resorted to mass falsifications during those five days of practically unmonitored early voting.

Gerard Stoudman, head of the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, told RFE/RL on September 10 that he has no evidence of manipulations of the election figures in Belarus. Mr. Stoudman, who led the OSCE's monitoring effort in the Belarusian ballot, added that in such a heavily Sovietized country as Belarus it is easy for the authorities to ensure a favorable election outcome without resorting to outright falsification of the figures.

The OSCE's final assessment of the Belarusian presidential election is still to come, but it is already evident that the organization as a whole, as well as each state participating in it, will soon face a difficult question: what to do about Lukashenka? Is he a legitimate president or not? Should European states resume political contacts with his regime or isolate it even further?

"A policy of isolation has never worked. It is clear that if this country [Belarus] feels like a fortress under siege, like Iraq, Yugoslavia under Milosevic, Cuba, etc., there will be no changes for the next 15 years," Mr. Stoudman told Reuters. It is likely that in time more and more European politicians will express their support for Mr. Stoudman's argument.

Does that argument in favor of not isolating President Lukashenka mean that the effort, led primarily by the United States to support the anti-Lukashenka opposition and establish some mechanisms and structures of civil society in Belarus, has suffered a failure? Not necessarily so.

"The most important result of this election is the development of democratically and politically competent institutions in civil society," according to OSCE Advisory and Monitoring Group Chairman Hans Georg Wieck. Of course, it is primarily up to the Belarusian opposition to show that it can prove equal to further challenges and maintain the unity that was so painstakingly achieved shortly before the presidential election. But it is also obvious that Belarus' nascent democratic groups need further moral and financial support from the West in order to overcome their frustration in the wake of Mr. Lukashenka's election triumph.

The Christian Science Monitor revealed last week that Washington spent $24 million in 2000 to support NGOs and opposition groups in Belarus, and is going to spend no less this year. Although such sums may seem pretty fat in a country where National Bank reserves do not exceed $200 million, they are in no way commensurate with the money that is spent to counter any democratization processes in Belarus and to keep the Lukashenka regime afloat.

According to opposition estimates, supporting Belarus' antiquated economy - which also means keeping the Lukashenka regime relatively popular among wider strata of the Belarusian population - costs Russia no less than $1 billion annually. Russia supports President Lukashenka by offering his regime cheap oil and gas, regular debt relief and access to taxes on products heading for Russia. Russia is also the principal market for Belarusian producers.

Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated the Belarusian leader immediately after the preliminary election results were released by Miensk. Nonetheless, Mr. Lukashenka's re-election presents a troublesome dilemma for the Kremlin, too. There has recently been an increasing number of voices from Russian politicians and political experts asserting that Moscow's support for Lukashenka costs Russia too much and is detrimental to Russian interests in the long run. Russia is apparently gradually becoming aware that it may be possible to maintain Belarus in the Russian sphere of influence without having the "last dictator in Europe" installed in Miensk.

In his independence-day greeting to President Lukashenka in July, President Putin spoke about Belarus' commitment to freedom and democracy as a necessary precondition for unification with Russia. While unification with Russia may not necessarily be the Belarusian opposition's primary goal, Moscow's tougher course toward Belarus's autocratic leader would obviously be welcomed by all anti-Lukashenka groups.

The presidential ballot in Belarus clearly testified that Moscow's political and economic leverage in that country remains a major factor that must be taken into account by all political players. Mr. Hancharyk and other opposition politicians have made an attempt at currying Moscow's favor in the presidential campaign. This time they failed, but September 9 in no way means the end of politics in Belarus.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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