Pro-Kuchma bloc claims to have 180 seats in Rada (04/14/02)

Pro-Kuchma bloc claims to have 180 seats in Rada

by Roman Woronowycz
Kyiv Press Bureau

KYIV - Volodymyr Lytvyn announced on April 9 that he had received assurances from 145 national deputies elected in single-mandate districts that they would join the For a United Ukraine Bloc, which would allow it to take the lead in the process of forming a majority in the new Parliament.

Mr. Lytvyn, who is the chairman of the bloc as well as President Leonid Kuchma's chief of staff, said the new members would give his bloc, which had won 35 seats in by-party voting, 180 seats in the Verkhovna Rada - 46 shy of a majority.

"We will lead the effort to successfully form a majority," said Mr. Lytvyn.

For a United Ukraine was one of six political organizations that received at least 4 percent support from Ukraine's electorate in parliamentary elections held on March 31. Although the 12 percent given the bloc put it only third among the six top vote-getters - after the Our Ukraine Bloc, which received 23.6 percent of the vote, and the Communist Party, which took 20 percent - the fact that it is the pro-presidential party and has a disproportionate amount of Ukraine's most powerful individuals, has allowed it to take center stage as the first strategies are employed in the development of the new Verkhovna Rada.

The 145 new members all come from single-mandate districts, where they successfully ran for office either as members of the For a United Ukraine political bloc apart from the party slate or as independents who now have revealed their willingness to work within the bloc.

Mr. Lytvyn, who spoke at a meeting of his political organization, listed three "axiomatic" positions in regard to the formation of a future majority that have come about as a result of his bloc's successful recruitment effort: no majority could be formed without the participation of For a United Ukraine; the political bloc should act as an initiator and coordinator of parliamentary coalition talks; and the majority must be formed on a platform of market-orientation, democratic reforms and European integration.

If in fact true, Mr. Lytvyn's claim that For a United Ukraine had more than quadrupled the number of seats it would hold in the next Parliament would require that some 79 of 93 candidates who successfully ran as non-aligned independents in single-mandate districts had decided to join his party of power. That figure could also include several single-mandate district winners who had changed party or bloc allegiance in recent days.

Our Ukraine, the political bloc that received the most electoral votes in the by-party voting and had been expected to hold the most seats in the Parliament, refrained from commenting on Mr. Lytvyn's assertion. The official stance of Our Ukraine, which is headed by Viktor Yushchenko and has 115 seats at present, is that everything is subject to change until after the Verkhovna Rada begins its work next month.

National Deputy Roman Bezsmertnyi, a leading figure in the bloc, said on April 10 that, while his group was talking with all the political entities that crossed the 4 percent threshold and obtained parliamentary seats, any discussions about coalition building and forming a majority are premature. He said that while certain figures are placing the accent on how to obtain the required number of seats to obtain control over the Parliament, his bloc is looking for ideologically sound partners.

"The first step in any such discussions needs to be agreement on a common program," explained Mr. Bezsmertnyi.

Some members of the Our Ukraine Bloc said on April 10 that a coalition between their group and the For a United Ukraine Bloc is impossible, because of extensive antagonisms between leading personalities in each group and contradictions in their fundamental approach to government. One of Our Ukraine's members, Valerii Asadchev, called Mr. Lytvyn's bloc representatives of "an authoritarian regime."

However, former Verkhovna Rada Chairman Ivan Pliusch, who was re-elected as an independent and remains close to the leaders of both political groups, said on April 5 that he expects Our Ukraine and For a United Ukraine to form a "right-centrist" reported Interfax-Ukraine.

"If they reach mutual understanding, it will be for the benefit of Ukraine and its Parliament," explained Mr. Pliusch.

However, three days later, National Deputy Dmytro Tabachnyk, a member of the For a United Ukraine Bloc and a former chief of staff for President Kuchma, said the talks between the pro-presidential bloc and Mr. Yushchenko's bloc were not going well.

President Kuchma has not expressed any particular predilection for a specific composition of a parliamentary majority - although he has said he would not support a coalition that included opposition forces. Speaking at the same political event at which Mr. Lytvyn made his declaration, Mr. Kuchma said, however, that he would actively support the formation of a permanent majority in Parliament that was centered on the For a United Ukraine Bloc. He reiterated that he would allow such a majority to form a new government.

Volodymyr Polokhalo, a leading political analyst for the political science journal Political Thought and a critic of the president, said there is little doubt that President Kuchma's desire will be fulfilled and that the real issue was not whether but when a pro-presidential majority would be formed.

"There is a second set of elections going on at the moment in which independents are being selected to join his faction in the Parliament," explained Mr. Polokhalo. "It is about the formation of a mega-faction."

Mr. Polokhalo said that since the elections President Kuchma has met with groups of non-aligned, newly chosen candidates from single-mandate districts to convince them of the benefits of becoming members of the For a United Ukraine faction. Those who have resisted have been invited for one-on-one discussions with the president, according to the analyst.

Mr. Polokhalo said he believes that many national deputies would be forced to "discard their promises and their programs," and join the mega-bloc, which Mr. Kuchma will have succeeded in forming by the end of the month.

The political scientist noted that the result of the president's efforts would be "the disturbing development" of a mega-bloc that would have power way beyond that which the electorate voted it."

"It is a slap in the face of the electorate, which voted very differently from the way in which authority is developing in the Verkhovna Rada," said Mr. Polokhalo.

The Political Thought editor said he does not believe that Our Ukraine would join the new coalition, but that the Social Democratic Party (United) and the Communist Party would very probably link up with Mr. Lytvyn's bloc to give it the additional seats needed to attain 226 votes.

Another political analyst, Mykhailo Pohrebynskyi of the Center of Political and Conflict Studies, told The Weekly on April 10 that it was not fair to describe the efforts of Mr. Kuchma as improper, as he was simply flexing his political muscle to develop a majority able to implement his programs, and that was simply sound politics.

"How it is being done, perhaps is a another matter," added Mr. Pohrebynskyi. Nonetheless, Mr. Pohrebynskyi also expressed conviction that the party of the hammer and sickle might join with the pro-presidential forces to form a majority, although it would be a loosely structured and most likely, a situational one.

He said that an agreement between the Communists and the For a United Ukraine Bloc already may be in place, with the Communists promising to support certain presidential initiatives in return for a seat on the Verkhovna Rada dais - perhaps the chair of the second vice-chairman.

The Communist Party, which was considered an opposition party in the last Parliament but was not averse to becoming part of situational majorities with pro-presidential forces even then, said already on April 4 that it would not consider blocking with any of the other five political forces, including For a United Ukraine. Its leader, Petro Symonenko, said the Communists would continue to oppose the president and call for his impeachment.

From an ideological point of view, Mr. Pohrebynskyi said the only coalition possible would be one between Our Ukraine and For a United Ukraine, but right now that is not a reality.

"If the issue was one of positions and programs, and not of personal ambitions of the leaders I would say that there were possibilities - but ambitions and later preparations for presidential elections would get in the way," explained Mr. Pohrebynskyi.

While the SDPU and its leader, Viktor Medvedchuk, which did not get the support it had expected in the elections, have remained restrained amid the various rumors being floated and attempts made at coalition-building, the leaders of the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and the Socialist Party have made overtures to Our Ukraine to form a democratically based, oppositionist majority.

The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc issued a statement on April 10 in response to Mr. Lytvyn's assertions in which it criticized the remarks as "a provocation against Ukraine's citizenry, human rights and freedoms," because the bloc "used administrative resources, repression and punitive measures to fight the opposition, forged election returns and manipulated public opinion."

The statement also accused the For a United Ukraine Bloc of "resorting to blackmail, threats and bribery" to recruit lawmakers for a majority coalition.

Oleksander Moroz's Socialist Party said that it was ready to discuss its inclusion in a majority coalition with the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc to be headed by Viktor Yushchenko and Our Ukraine, but that it had not yet been approached on the matter.

Ukraine's parliamentary elections: the popular vote for parties/blocs

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