ANALYSIS: Yushchenko and Kuchma to get together again? (04/14/02)

ANALYSIS

Yushchenko and Kuchma to get together again?

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

According to preliminary unofficial reports from the Central Election Commission on April 2, with nearly 99 percent of the vote counted, Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine won the March 31 parliamentary election, garnering some 23.5 percent of the vote of the nationwide constituency in a poll in which 225 parliamentary mandates were contested under a proportional party-list system, UNIAN reported.

The Communist Party was supported by 20.1 percent of voters, For a United Ukraine by 12.1 percent, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc by 7.1 percent, the Socialist Party by 7 percent, and the Social Democratic Party by 6.2 percent. Other parties did not overcome the 4 percent voting hurdle to obtain mandates from the party list.

It was not clear on April 2 how many seats Our Ukraine and other blocs will obtain in the new Verkhovna Rada, since vote counting in one-seat constituencies was still in progress. Estimates give Our Ukraine 110 to 120 seats, while For a United Ukraine may get 100 to 110 seats.

Such an array of parliamentary forces presents an extremely difficult puzzle to anybody trying to figure out the composition of Ukraine's future parliamentary majority and government. This is because neither Our Ukraine nor For a United Ukraine will be able to become the sole center of a reliable parliamentary majority without making serious and far-reaching political concessions.

At first glance, it appears that the Communist Party, which has lost heavily in comparison to its taking of more than 110 mandates in the 1998 election, may become a kingmaker in forging such a majority. However, a formal parliamentary alliance of the Communists with For a United Ukraine, let alone with Our Ukraine, seems an improbable development because of both domestic and foreign policy considerations. At best, the Communists could aspire to providing "situational" support to the pro-presidential parliamentary grouping - such situations have occurred in the preceding legislature and earned Petro Symonenko's party the "bogus opposition" label.

What may surprise many foreign observers of Ukrainian politics - who perceive former Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko and President Leonid Kuchma as irreconcilable political opponents and clearly see the dividing line between pro-presidential and opposition forces - is a very likely alliance of Our Ukraine with For a United Ukraine to provide legislative support for a new Cabinet of Ministers.

Taking into account Ukraine's election arithmetic and putting moral considerations aside, such a move seems only too natural. If the combined gain of Our Ukraine and For a United Ukraine turns out to be somewhat short of the parliamentary majority of 226 votes, both caucuses will doubtless find necessary votes through recruitment from those deputies who will get parliamentary seats on independent tickets. Thus, there should be no problems in ensuring a safe legislative majority for the Cabinet.

Such a development would be politically beneficial for both President Kuchma and Mr. Yushchenko. It would certainly put the issue of Mr. Kuchma's impeachment - championed primarily by the Tymoshenko Bloc, the Socialist Party and the Communists - on the back burner. Mr. Yushchenko's renewed siding with the president could also improve Mr. Kuchma's rating in the West and, possibly, allow the president to become a full-fledged player in international politics, where for more than a year he has been eyed suspiciously because of the murder of journalist Heorhii Gongadze and the "tape scandal."

As for Mr. Yushchenko, forging a coalition with the pro-Kuchma bloc would mean access to advantages offered by "administrative resources" in the upcoming presidential election in 2004, should he decide to run. And no less important, such a two-bloc coalition would prevent Social Democratic Party (United) leader Viktor Medvedchuk - whom many see as Mr. Yushchenko's most serious rival in the anticipated presidential contest - from obtaining access to those "resources."

Mr. Yushchenko repeatedly stressed in the election campaign that he does not view Our Ukraine as an opposition force. He also rejected numerous advances of fiercely anti-presidential Ms. Tymoshenko toward marrying Our Ukraine with her bloc in the campaign. While criticizing the authorities in general, he avoided mentioning Mr. Kuchma or even presidential administration head Volodymyr Lytvyn, the leader of For a United Ukraine. But Mr. Yushchenko did criticize Mr. Medvedchuk and even canceled a planned television debate with him, saying he did not want to boost popularity ratings for "marginal parties and politicians." In other words, there are no insurmountable obstacles to striking a coalition deal between Our Ukraine and For a United Ukraine, provided that Mr. Medvedchuk is eliminated from the process.

It remains to be seen whether President Kuchma will be able to overcome his dislike of Mr. Yushchenko and accept the Yushchenko bloc in the government. For some of Mr. Kuchma's people such a development is quite acceptable. Serhii Tyhypko, the leader of the influential pro-presidential Party of Regions, told UNIAN that a pro-government majority in the new Verkhovna Rada should be created by For a United Ukraine, Our Ukraine and the Social Democratic Party. According to Mr. Tyhypko, the majority should consist of center-right forces that could guarantee Ukraine's transition to a market economy. Mr. Tyhypko added that he personally is not ready to join a coalition with the Communist Party.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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