EDITORIAL: Bloc's power outweighs public support (04/14/02)

EDITORIAL

Bloc's power outweighs public support

Although the results are in, everybody here is still trying to figure out who actually won the March 31 elections to Ukraine's Parliament. True, Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine bloc took nearly a quarter of the by-party vote, but President Leonid Kuchma is working diligently to prop up the weak results of his pro-presidential For a United Ukraine Bloc by recruiting non-aligned national deputies, to allow the bloc to dictate the development of a majority in the Verkhovna Rada.

If it weren't for the mixed election system, which President Kuchma forced down the Parliament's throat by vetoing four other election laws, today Our Ukraine, as the election front-runner, would be the only one attempting to form the majority. Because the system that finally was approved allowed for half the seats to the Parliament to be chosen in a vote for party and half by single-mandate district voting, it has given For a United Ukraine a second life in its grab for power. This has resulted in a concerted effort to pressure candidates elected as independents in single-mandate constituencies to join the pro-presidential bloc. As a result, For a United Ukraine will have far greater authority in the next Parliament than the support given by the electorate.

The bloc, headed by Mr. Kuchma's chief of staff, Volodymyr Lytvyn, could do no better than third in popular polling and received merely 12 percent of the vote. It may now get as much as 40 percent of parliamentary seats, and it will have the president to thank for that success. There are few here who will disagree that Mr. Kuchma is using his "political abilities" to twist arms and make offers that cannot be refused.

In the last few days he has met with all 93 independent lawmakers elected in single-mandate districts, either individually or in groups, to explain to them the "benefits" of membership in the political bloc of power. If remarks by Mr. Lytvyn on April 10 are to believed, then about 79 of 93 non-aligned candidates have jumped on the FUU bandwagon, which most anyone would agree is an unusually high number of supposedly independent-minded politicians. Why are they so quick to join an established political force so soon after the election?

Little debate exists on whether the president's action is politically ethical because society here no longer attempts to consider such issues. The more interesting question is whether Our Ukraine, with Viktor Yuschenko at the helm, should join in the majority coalition or whether his center-right bloc should enter into a cooperative partnership with the self-proclaimed oppositionist forces of the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and the Socialist Party.

Yet, the political reality is that the combined numbers of both Ms. Tymoshenko's forces and the Socialists would fail to give this coalition sufficient votes for a majority. The two oppositionist groups are not against allowing the Communists to jump aboard as well, but that is a non-starter for Our Ukraine. One of the pillars of the ideological platform on which at least three of the parties in the bloc stand is uncompromising opposition to the Communists. Nor is the Social Democratic Party (United) a realistic fourth choice as Mr. Yushchenko and Viktor Medvedchuk, the SDPU leader, are antagonistic toward one another over successful attempts by each of them to remove the other one from positions of power.

Which brings us back to an Our Ukraine/For a United Ukraine coalition. But here everybody acknowledges that, even if ideologies don't get in the way, ambitions will. Both Mr. Yushchenko and National Deputy Serhii Tyhypko, a political heavyweigh with FUU, would want to head the government that President Kuchma would allow the majority to form. While not political foes, neither are the two men political pals. Thus neither is likely to budge or agree to take the lesser post of Parliament chairman.

Even if some sort of agreement could be reached on that single issue (and that is not the only item separating the two blocs), such a coalition would disintegrate within a year as the presidential elections near and the two groups line up behind different candidates. For Our Ukraine there is a more fundamental issue, as well. Several of the political parties in the bloc are strictly opposed to close cooperation with President Kuchma and the oligarchic clans that make up For a United Ukraine. They would in all likelihood leave Our Ukraine if a coalition were formed with FUU.

In the end, the situation in the Parliament in the wake of the elections - while better than what has been the case historically because the alternatives are clearer - will again not allow for a lasting parliamentary majority. At best, Ukraine can expect only situational coalitions from its deputies. There will be some legislative progress, however, especially in the economic arena because four of the six political groups agree on open markets, free trade and reduced taxes, but only for the next year. Then presidential elections take over and everything comes to a grinding political halt once again.

While voters voiced their opinion on March 31, it appears that, ultimately, the winner in these parliamentary elections will not be known until November 2004, when Mr. Kuchma's successor is finally chosen. Far more likely than not, that person will be one of the six individuals who today lead the blocs/parties that voters elected.

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