ANALYSIS: Kuchma's pre-emptive strike is aimed against opposition (09/08/02)

ANALYSIS

Kuchma's pre-emptive strike is aimed against opposition

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

In a televised address to the nation to mark the 11th anniversary of Ukraine's independence on August 24, President Leonid Kuchma said the country needs to move to a different political system - a parliamentary-presidential republic.

"Ukraine has been formed as a presidential-parliamentary republic, with all the advantages and shortcomings of this system," he said. "Most likely, there was no other way. Under the circumstances of the lack of democratic tradition and of weak political parties, the president had to take upon himself the responsibility for adopting important decisions, including and first and foremost - on economic issues. ... But [now] I am convinced that for its further development, Ukraine needs to transfer to a different political system - a parliamentary-presidential republic."

President Kuchma said he has already ordered that a working group be set up to prepare a draft of political reform, and he appealed to all political forces, including the opposition, to take part in this task. According to Mr. Kuchma, Ukraine may achieve this systemic shift by amending its Constitution and giving the right to form a government to a parliamentary majority. Mr. Kuchma called on the Verkhovna Rada to create such a majority in order to form a coalition Cabinet "in the near future" without waiting for relevant constitutional changes.

Mr. Kuchma also said the country's shift to a parliamentary-presidential republic would require changes to election legislation. "In other words, we need a proportional election system, but of a European type," he said. The president also noted that Ukraine urgently needs a reform of its territorial administration. "Shifting to a parliamentary-presidential model and strengthening the role of local self-governments, he said, will be indicative of Ukraine's "European choice."

What has pushed the Ukrainian president to make such a political about-face and offer more powers to the Parliament? It should be remembered that in April 2000 Mr. Kuchma organized a constitutional referendum intended to curb parliamentary powers rather than to expand them. And, quite recently, Mr. Kuchma has referred to the Verkhovna Rada as a "center of destabilization in the country."

"If it is a serious proposal ... then the Communist parliamentary caucus together with pro-presidential factions could muster 300 votes during the fall parliamentary session to make [relevant] changes in the Constitution," Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko commented after hearing of the president's proposal for political reform.

"But I am far from believing that the president's statement was motivated by his desire to improve the political system of the state, to expand democracy and accountability [of the authorities] for their policies to the Ukrainian people. I think that this step was made in connection with the countrywide protest actions [planned by the opposition in Septem-ber]. The president and his entourage are trying to weaken the opposition's demand that Ukraine move from a presidential-parliamentary to a parliamentary-presidential republic," Mr. Symonenko added.

Yurii Lutsenko, a coordinator of the Ukraine Without Kuchma movement, said that by making his proposals, President Kuchma "has snatched away the initiative from the opposition, which has announced mass protest actions under slogans demanding a change in Ukraine's political system."

Mr. Lutsenko said he believes that Mr. Kuchma's reform ideas could become flesh in the form of "a constitutional accord on transferring a part of the presidential powers to the parliament" in the form of "a direct presidential decree." He also said he believes that the protest actions planned for this fall will not be called off.

"It is another matter that they may take place under different slogans. It is dependent on the authorities whether the protest actions will be held under radical slogans or under slogans supporting a change of the political system," Mr. Lutsenko added.

While most Ukrainian commentators agree that President Kuchma's announcement of political reform is intended to defuse the potential of the opposition protest to some extent, some of them suggest that the presidential proposal primarily targets Viktor Yushchenko and his Our Ukraine bloc, which has, until recently, wavered as to whether to join the Communists, the Socialists, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and the Ukraine Without Kuchma movement in the upcoming protests.

With his offer, those commentators assert, Mr. Kuchma is proposing to Mr. Yushchenko that he enter into a parliamentary coalition with the pro-presidential group and form a coalition Cabinet - the goal pursued by Our Ukraine after it suffered a setback in the election of the parliamentary leadership earlier this year.

Mr. Yushchenko's reaction was rather distrustful. While noting that President Kuchma's proposal to form a coalition government coincides with Our Ukraine's postulates, he said, "we read the notion of coalition in a different way" than the president. "I think Ukraine does not need a government formed by political forces that will be artificially herded into a parliamentary coalition."

Mr. Yushchenko reportedly said that both a presidential-parliamentary and parliamentary-presidential republic could be efficient politically, but added that the current situation in Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada discredits the idea of parliamentary democracy. As of now, Mr. Yushchenko added, the Parliament is a "puppet in the hands of some forces," therefore, in his opinion, it is inexpedient to move toward a parliamentary-republic system. There are also voices in Ukraine suggesting that President Kuchma does not see a worthy successor to whom he could entrust the entire store of presidential powers after his retirement in 2004, therefore, he has proposed to curb these powers in a bid to win the title of major reformist.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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