IN THE PRESS: "Ukraine's rogue president" (10/20/02)

IN THE PRESS

"Ukraine's rogue president"

PARSIPPANY, N.J. - Just one week before President George W. Bush's speech spelled out the threat posed to the entire world by Iraq and the need for regime change in that country, the Bush administration confirmed that President Leonid Kuchma of Ukraine had approved the sale of an anti-aircraft radar system to Iraq.

That was the topic addressed by Adrian Karatnycky, president of Freedom House, writing in the October 9 issue of the Wall Street Journal.

"... while the idea that any nation would willingly aid the murderous intentions of Saddam Hussein has long seem far-fetched, the possibility hit close to home in recent days," wrote Mr. Karatnycky. "President Kuchma's decision, in clear violation of United Nations sanctions, may be the first sign of complications with loose technology in the states of the former Soviet Union."

Mr. Karatnycky's commentary was published under the headline "Ukraine's Rogue President."

The revelation that Mr. Kuchma approved the sale of a Kolchuha system to Iraq "could fundamentally alter the U.S.'s relationship with Ukraine, and particularly with its president," noted the analyst. He reports that although President Kuchma has denied his involvement, the FBI has determined that a tape of him and his cronies discussing the sale is authentic.

Furthermore, as noted in the op-ed article, "Ukraine has emerged as a leading supply source for illicit traffic in global arms", and there are indications that arms were sent from Ukraine to such destinations as Angola, the former Yugoslavia, Taliban-controlled Afghanistan and Macedonia, among others.

Mr. Karatnycky went on to note that Mr. Kuchma's credibility has been destroyed and that "the authenticated Kuchma tape suggests that while Ukraine is not a rogue state, it has a rogue president." Meanwhile, the United States is pressing for an investigation into the alleged deal with Iraq.

He also mentions that there have been rumors for some time now of allowing President Kuchma to leave office with an amnesty for his misdeeds.

"With the next presidential election coming in two years, the best hope for Ukraine - and for the U.S. - is in pressuring Mr. Kuchma to step aside quietly in favor of early elections," wrote Mr. Karatnycky.

Mr. Karatnycky concludes that there are two possible outcomes to Iraqgate. "If Mr. Kuchma resigns, Ukraine's Iraqgate will have borne positive fruit. If he does not, the U.S. will confront two problems: Ukraine's president will demonstrate to other leaders that you can conspire with Iraq and get away with it. And Mr. Kuchma's inevitable isolation will drive Ukraine, a strategically important country of 50 million that sits on NATO's eastern frontier, into Russia's cynical embrace."

"Both outcomes," he underscored, "would cause headaches for Europe and the U.S. But the worst would be if Ukraine's movement toward Europe, democracy and the rule of law is hijacked by Mr. Kuchma's insistence on remaining in office."

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