Prospects for political dialogue remain vague (10/27/02)

Prospects for political dialogue remain vague

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

Last week, Warsaw hosted a two-day international conference called "Ukraine in Europe," which was organized under the patronage of Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski and the European Union's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana. The forum, devoted to relations between the European Union and Ukraine, gathered representatives of the Ukrainian authorities, including presidential administration chief Viktor Medvedchuk; National Defense and Security Council Secretary Yevhen Marchuk, and the opposition, including Oleksander Moroz and Viktor Yushchenko; as well as participants from Romania, Slovakia and Hungary.

Originally, Poland planned to organize a sort of "roundtable" discussion between the authorities and Ukrainian opposition on the current political standoff in Ukraine but it quickly backed off the idea after President Leonid Kuchma charged Warsaw with interfering in Ukraine's domestic affairs. As a result, the conference took place at a "square table" and was devoted exclusively to mulling Ukraine's place in Europe in the context of the upcoming NATO and EU expansion.

Mr. Solana took advantage of the forum to voice some of the harshest criticism of Kyiv for what he said is "playing with the rules" of democracy. "We would like one day to embrace your country [Ukraine], but we have to know what country you are. ... But at this time, I have to tell you this is impossible," Mr. Solana said at a joint news conference with Presidents Kwasniewski and Kuchma in Warsaw on October 16.

As for the "two main Ukrainians" at the Warsaw forum, Messrs. Medvedchuk and Yushchenko, they made statements signaling that they may look for some form of dialogue after returning to Kyiv.

"A success of this conference is in inaugurating dialogue between the [Ukrainian] authorities and the opposition," Mr. Medvedchuk told journalists in Warsaw.

Mr. Yushchenko the leader of Our Ukraine, also said the conference has proved that "dialogue is the only way out of Ukraine's crisis - the gravest in the past 11 years."

Later, in Kyiv, Mr. Yushchenko said Our Ukraine could sit at a negotiating table with Mr. Medvedchuk's Social Democratic Party-united (SDPU), adding that "Medvedchuk is a Ukrainian reality."

And President Kuchma, who did not participate in the Warsaw forum but arrived in Warsaw after its conclusion to meet with President Kwasniewski and Mr. Solana, noted that he supports dialogue between the government and opposition groups but at the same time ruled out yielding to what he called "ultimatums" - an apparent reference to opposition demands for his resignation.

Thus far, however, Messrs. Yushchenko and Medvedchuk have not met for any political talks. And it is not surprising that they are not eager to talk with each other. Apart from harboring a reportedly deep mutual dislike of one other, the two men pursue conflicting political goals. Mr. Medvedchuk is involved in constructing a viable parliamentary majority centered on nine pro-presidential caucuses run by oligarchic clans (including his SDPU), whereas Mr. Yushchenko wants to split Labor Ukraine and Ukraine's Regions from the pro-presidential parliamentary alliance and build a parliamentary coalition centered on Our Ukraine.

"These [three] democratic forces are able to propose the idea of a democratic coalition as an open [proposal] around which other forces could group," Mr. Yushchenko commented earlier this month. He did not mention what other forces he had in mind, but they are more likely to include the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc or Oleksander Moroz's Socialist Party rather than Medvedchuk's SDPU.

Both Mr. Medvedchuk and Mr. Yushchenko have thus far seemed to be rather unsuccessful in their endeavors. Formally, a razor-thin pro-Kuchma majority composed of 226 deputies was announced earlier this month, but it has proved to be quite ineffectual in passing legislation in the Verkhovna Rada. Our Ukraine jointly with the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, the Socialists and the Communists, was able to effectively disrupt parliamentary work by boycotting votes.

According to Ukrainian media reports, however, the State Tax Administration in the Lviv Oblast (headed by Serhii Medvedchuk, Viktor Medvedchuk's brother), has instigated a number of criminal investigations into companies owned or managed by national deputies of the Our Ukraine bloc, in an apparent attempt at pressuring some of them into joining the parliamentary majority constructed by the presidential administration chief. That this pressure is a real danger to Our Ukraine's coherence was graphically demonstrated by a protest rally organized by Our Ukraine in Lviv on October 21, at which some 4,000 people demanded Serhii Medvedchuk's dismissal from the post of chief tax inspector in the region.

On the other hand, there have been no clear signals from Labor Ukraine or Ukraine's Regions that they want to quit the pro-presidential majority and side with Mr. Yushchenko to form a new coalition.

In essence, what Mr. Yushchenko wants is to persuade two oligarchic groups from eastern Ukraine to abandon their "clannish solidarity" with Mr. Medvedchuk and to leave their political alliance with the SDPU. If Mr. Yushchenko were to succeed in doing this, he would get a solid political foothold in eastern Ukraine and would immensely improve his chances in the 2004 presidential elections. And this is exactly why any sensible dialogue between Messrs. Yushchenko and Medvedchuk seems to be completely impossible.

For Mr. Medvedchuk, who reportedly also has presidential ambitions, the emergence of a parliamentary majority centered on Our Ukraine spells the end of his political clout in the country. Therefore, it is more likely that Mr. Medvedchuk will obstruct any attempts at political dialogue in Ukraine as long as possible, simultaneously trying to split Our Ukraine and compromise Mr. Yushchenko as a political troublemaker.

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