ANALYSIS: Will Kuchma outwit the opposition via his version of constitutional reform? (07/06/03)

ANALYSIS

Will Kuchma outwit the opposition via his version of constitutional reform?

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

President Leonid Kuchma submitted a modified version of his constitutional-reform bill to the Verkhovna Rada on June 20, as he pledged in a televised address to the nation the previous day. Mr. Kuchma told the nation that, guided by the public discussion of the reform draft and his will to find a compromise with Ukrainian political forces, he had decided to scrap some of his earlier proposals. Opposition activists claim, however, that in pursuing this constitutional reform, President Kuchma is still seeking to prolong his term in power beyond 2004.

Mr. Kuchma withdrew his earlier suggestions to introduce a bicameral legislature, reduce the number of national deputies, and apply the results of national referendums directly without seeking approval from any other branch of government. "It is these three contentious points that have spurred the most heated discussion between the president and his opponents," he said on television. "But we have no right to continue to engage in a tug of war to mark time, which is why I have removed these barriers."

As earlier, Mr. Kuchma suggests that the prime minister be appointed by the Parliament after his candidacy has been proposed by a "permanently functioning parliamentary majority" and submitted to the Parliament by the president. He also proposed that the Verkhovna Rada appoint all ministers except for the ministers of foreign affairs, defense and interior affairs, who are to be appointed by the president. Under Mr. Kuchma's constitutional reform bill, the president also has the right to appoint the heads of the Security Service, the State Customs Committee, the State Tax Administration, and the State Border Committee.

The new bill stipulates that the president has the right to disband Parliament if it fails to create a permanent majority within one month; if a new Cabinet composition has not been approved 60 days after the resignation of the preceding government; and if Parliament fails to approve Ukraine's budget for the next year by December 1.

The new bill also retains President Kuchma's previous proposal that the president, national deputies and local deputies be elected for five-year terms in elections held during the same calendar year.

"Ukraine needs a stable electoral cycle, because one cannot regard as normal the practice where society only passes from one electoral campaign to another, while politicians literally never leave the electoral barricades," Mr. Kuchma said. "I believe that elections should be held once in five years. This is quite enough. ... I have repeatedly stressed and I want to stress it again: the next presidential election should be held in 2004."

However, Mr. Kuchma did not tell television viewers how he envisages switching to this new electoral cycle. But Ukrainian print media highlighted a provision in the bill stating that the Verkhovna Rada must approve a date for the first such elections within two months of the constitutional reforms' passage. According to some Ukrainian observers, the provision is a clear indication that President Kuchma is seeking to outwit the opposition and prolong his term in power beyond 2004.

While constitutional amendments require 300 votes for passage, the approval of a bill setting the date for the next presidential elections (as well as parliamentary and local ones) would require just 226 votes - well within the reach of the pro-Kuchma parliamentary majority. And this date, the president's opponents argue, might be set for 2005, 2006 or even 2007.

The Socialist Party has launched a drive to collect signatures among lawmakers on a petition requesting the Constitutional Court to rule whether Mr. Kuchma may run for a third presidential term.

On the other hand, Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine called on lawmakers to introduce a moratorium on making constitutional amendments until 2006, when a regular parliamentary election is to take place. It seems that Our Ukraine has finally decided that it is not going to take part in reforming the constitutional system as long as President Kuchma is in power. Without Our Ukraine's participation in the process, it is rather unlikely that the pro-Kuchma forces in the Parliament will be able to muster 300 votes necessary for the passage of the Kuchma-submitted bill, especially as the Socialist Party and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc are sponsoring a different constitutional-reform bill.

The weekly Zerkalo Nedeli in its June 21-27 issue commented sarcastically on Mr. Kuchma's recent constitutional re-form proposal by saying that the number of scenarios allowing him to remain in power longer than two terms is constantly increasing. The weekly cited four such scenarios.

Scenario 1: The Constitutional Court rules that President Kuchma may run for a third term since he was elected in 1994 and 1999 under different Constitutions (Ukraine promulgated its current Constitution in 1996, when Mr. Kuchma was serving his first term). Thus, under the 1996 Constitution, Mr. Kuchma is formally serving his first term.
Scenario 2: The Verkhovna Rada passes the constitutional reform bill proposed by Mr. Kuchma and the pro-presidential majority subsequently schedules the next presidential election well beyond 2004.
Scenario 3: The Verkhovna Rada passes the constitutional reform bill proposed by Kuchma, a new president is elected in 2004 for a transition period until 2006 or 2007, when the country is to enter the five-year electoral cycle. Mr. Kuchma does not participate in the 2004 election but chooses to run again in 2006 or 2007. The Ukrainian Constitution prohibits one person from serving more than two consecutive presidential terms, but it does not restrict the number of presidential terms for the same person.
Scenario 4: A new president and a new Parliament are elected in 2004. The Verkhovna Rada fails to form a permanent parliamentary majority or a Cabinet, or to approve a budget within constitutional terms, and the president disbands it. This automatically means that a new election cycle is to be launched in the country, and Kuchma gets the the possibility to run once again.

"It is simply amazing how it is possible for one to go hunting so many at the same time," Zerkalo Nedeli wrote. "Will the 450 potential hunters [lawmakers] ever become tired of being game?" the weekly marveled. A good question, indeed.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

| Home Page |