ANALYSIS

Will Kuchma propose "parliamentary republic"?

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report

Earlier this month, political scientist Volodymyr Polokhalo, editor-in-chief of the Kyiv-based magazine Politychna Dumka, held a news conference at which he expressed his opinion about the reform of Ukraine's political system proposed this year by President Leonid Kuchma, the Ukrainska Pravda website reported on August 7.

According to Mr. Polokhalo, the political-reform proposal is a "shadow political technique" intended primarily to secure President Kuchma's immunity from prosecution after the end of his presidential tenure and to retain the socioeconomic and political status quo of oligarchic clans in Ukraine.

Mr. Polokhalo said he believes that Mr. Kuchma may considerably modify his original reform plan - switching from a "presidential-parliamentary" to "parliamentary-presidential" system - by shifting the power balance to the Parliament and reducing the prerogatives of the president to those of a figurehead.

Mr. Polokhalo predicted that Mr. Kuchma may voice such a proposal as soon as August 24, Ukraine's independence anniversary. Mr. Polokhalo added that such a proposal could be accepted by both the Communist Party of Petro Symonenko and the Socialist Party of Oleksander Moroz, since both politicians eagerly opt for more powers to the Parliament.

Thus, the modified parliamentary-reform proposal would readily obtain the required 300 votes (Communists plus Socialists plus pro-presidential majority) in the Verkhovna Rada for its approval.

"And [Our Ukraine leader Viktor] Yushchenko might become the president without a problem. Since the importance of this post would be diminished, the post would become a decorative one; it would lose its political sense," Mr. Polokhalo summed up.

According to this line of argument, the president could be elected by the Verkhovna Rada, while the Verkhovna Rada, in turn, if elected according to the current election law (which mixes a proportional system with a first-past-the-post system), could be easily controlled by oligarchs, as it is now.

"I feel that the president may agree to making the Parliament the basic center of power," Polokhalo told Ukrainska Pravda on August 15. "Because [Rada Chairman Volodymyr] Lytvyn is loyal [to Kuchma], the Parliament is being controlled by [presidential administration chief Viktor] Medved-chuk."

Lawmaker Serhii Holovatyi from the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service on August 14 that President Kuchma now "has no other way" than proposing a Parliament-centered model of government in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Oleksandr Moroz commented to RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service that if President Kuchma makes such a proposal, the opposition will propose "conducting parliamentary and local elections under a fully proportional system." "Then we can speak about electing the president among those proposed by newly elected lawmakers," Mr. Moroz added.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus, Ukraine and Poland specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

Copyright © The Ukrainian Weekly, August 31, 2003, No. 35, Vol. LXXI

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