EDITORIAL (02/01/04)

EDITORIAL

"The Year of Russia"

The way the presidents of Ukraine and Russia commemorated the conclusion of the "Year of Russia in Ukraine," the controversial series of events designed to foster awareness of Russian culture and traditions - which had followed on the heels of a similar "Year of Ukraine in Russia" in 2002 - raises questions regarding the depth of brotherly love required by "neighborly" countries. Organizers decided that the year should close in conjunction with the 350th anniversary of the Pereiaslav Treaty, one of the definitive events in the calamitous history shared by the two countries. The accord, by which Hetman Bohdan Khmelnytsky obtained military support from Muscovy for his war with Poland, is the foundation upon which Russia legitimized its right to Ukraine for the next 338 years.

It is unclear why a, Year of Russia in Ukraine, was needed at all after nearly three and a half centuries of Russian hegemony over the nation, including intense periods of Russification by tsars and Communist apparatchiks alike. After all these years Ukrainians well know the Russian culture, history, language - whether they desire to or not. Those who have not been consumed by Russia's startlingly effective absorption of its neighbors understand well that country's dangerous penchant for empire-building.

Still, it was rather unsettling that in the capital of Ukraine during a government-organized event - only a dozen years after Ukraine shook off the heavy hand of big brother - one could see the Russian flag against the backdrop of the large stage at the Ukraina Palace of Culture superimposed upon the Ukrainian flag, allowing only a bit of the blue and yellow to be seen at the edges. It was a striking if unplanned symbol for what some in Ukrainian national democratic circles believe Russia has in store for Ukraine. Similarly disturbing was the sound of the Ukrainian president speaking in Russian during a state event in the nation's capital. Not that Leonid Kuchma can be said to speak Russian rarely - that would be more true of his use of Ukrainian. It's just that it was troubling to see it happen during an event organized by the state leadership.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin must have taken note of what he observed because he seemed to play on it during his remarks when he offered how "proud" Russia was of Ukraine's recent achievements, as any big brother would want to do.

The issue of Russia's overbearing influence on Ukraine and the reluctance, or refusal, of Ukraine's current leaders to acknowledge that Russia still harbors imperialistic ambitions are not novel issues. What makes them worth contemplating again, along with the details of the Putin visit to Ukraine, are the recent reports in the Western press describing the expected re-emergence of a strong, imperially ambitious Russia.

An intelligence briefing from January 9 by Stratfor Group, a Washington based think tank, noted that after President Putin is re-elected in March he will turn his attention to reasserting Moscow's influence over its "near abroad."

Similarly, syndicated columnist Jim Hoagland wrote on January 16 in The Chicago Tribune that in the former Warsaw Pact countries of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia, "distrust of Russia in general, and Putin in particular, runs deep." Mr. Hoagland said, "They believe that, through design or incompetence, Russia is destabilizing its 'near abroad.' " He added: "Failing governments or chaotic conditions in Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova or Georgia could trigger Russian intervention or even occupation and reabsorption."

That same day The Wall Street Journal Online printed a story by Ilan Berman and Artem Agoulnik of the American Foreign Policy Council in which the two analysts described a geopolitical struggle developing between Russia and the U.S. over influence in the former Soviet republics, particularly Kazakstan, Georgia and Armenia.

We agree that there exists a dangerous, renewed Russian desire to reclaim empire. We are concerned that at the moment it may pose a more immediate threat to Ukraine than elsewhere. We share the belief that the U.S. must remain a balance to Russian ambitions in the region that encompasses the former Soviet space. We also are convinced that the presidential elections in Ukraine, which are scheduled for November, may be the deciding moment in this young country's future.

In the end, however, nothing the U.S. - or Poland or the European Union for that matter - might do to help Ukraine will work if the Ukrainian nation does not assert its democracy and sovereignty to make sure that this year's "Year of Russia in Ukraine" does not become next year's the "Year of Russia Into Ukraine."

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