ANALYSIS: Yushchenko makes the first move in the presidential election campaign (07/04/04)

ANALYSIS

Yushchenko makes the first move in the presidential election campaign

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Belarus and Ukraine Report

Our Ukraine head Viktor Yushchenko has chosen Verkhovna Rada vice-chairman Oleksander Zinchenko as manager of his 2004 presidential campaign, Ukrainian media reported on June 14. According to Mr. Yushchenko, Mr. Zinchenko's main task will be to coordinate the campaign staffs of the parties constituting the Our Ukraine bloc, as well as the forces that will form an election-campaign coalition with Our Ukraine.

"The election-campaign manager will organize the work of analytical services, special projects, and react appropriately to those events taking place during the presidential race," Mr. Yushchenko told Hromadske Radio on June 15. "In other words, [he will be in charge of] a rapid-reaction force."

Mr. Zinchenko's path to the opposition Our Ukraine bloc was a curious one. In 1996 Mr. Zinchenko joined the Social Democratic Party-United (SDPU) led by current presidential-administration chief Viktor Medvedchuk, one of the most bitter political opponents of Mr. Yushchenko. In 1998 Mr. Zinchenko became first deputy chairman of the SDPU. He was elected a Verkhovna Rada deputy in 1998 and re-elected in 2002 (both times from the SDPU list). In May 2002 he was elected a Rada vice-chairman, under the "quota" of parliamentary posts ascribed by the pro-government parliamentary majority to the SDPU.

Mr. Zinchenko was regarded as one of the most vigorous contributors to voting Mr. Yushchenko out of his post of prime minister by the Verkhovna Rada in April 2001. Mr. Zinchenko's position in the SDPU became visibly upset in 2002 when he failed to reform the television channel Inter, which is controlled by the party. Mr. Zinchenko resigned as Inter president in mid-2002 because of a standoff with Mr. Medvedchuk, who reportedly objected to his plans to transform Inter into a channel that could be less dependent on the political affiliations of its sponsors.

In mid-2003 Mr. Zinchenko formally asked the SDPU leadership to be released from the post of vice-chairman of the party as well as from the duties of a member of the SDPU leading bodies - the Political Council and the Political Bureau. Mr. Zinchenko reportedly justified his request by saying that he does not share the position of the party leadership on "many social and political issues" and differs with them as to "the understanding of ethical norms of life." His request was immediately satisfied.

In September 2003 Mr. Zinchenko was expelled from the SDPU, reportedly for failing to back a constitutional reform bill prepared by Mr. Medvedchuk in cooperation with the Communist Party and the Socialist Party. He has not joined any other party and so far remained in the post of vice-chairman of the Verkhovna Rada.

In April Mr. Zinchenko headed an ad hoc parliamentary commission that went to Mukachiv in the Zakarpattia Oblast to investigate Our Ukraine's allegations that the local authorities manipulated and falsified the mayoral election in the town on April 18 in favor of a candidate supported by the SDPU. Mr. Zinchenko subsequently reported to the Verkhovna Rada that "in Mukachiv, the principles of Joseph Vissarionovich [Stalin] are in action" and demanded the dismissals of regional officials over the controversial election.

The selection of Mr. Zinchenko as the manager of Mr. Yushchenko's election campaign was unanimously approved by the leaders of all political parties in the Our Ukraine bloc. Yulia Tymoshenko, the most probable coalition partner of Mr. Yushchenko in the 2004 presidential campaign, has also reportedly expressed her approval. And some Ukrainian political commentators and analysts have praised Mr. Yushchenko for making this choice as well.

First, there have been media reports alleging that some prominent Our Ukraine activists and party leaders have become utterly dissatisfied with the performance of Roman Bezsmertnyi, head of the Our Ukraine staff, and demanded that Mr. Yushchenko fire him. Mr. Yushchenko, who apparently did not want to upset the delicate political balance within the bloc, introduced Mr. Zinchenko, an additional player, who is to take over a lot of Mr. Bezsmertnyi's responsibilities in the election campaign and thus lessen the reportedly deep frustration of Our Ukraine activists over their chief of staff.

Second, many see the recruitment of Mr. Zinchenko by Mr. Yushchenko as a clear and intentional sign that the Our Ukraine leader does not harbor any grievance against those politicians who have been hostile and adverse to him in the past. In this way, some observers argue, Mr. Yushchenko is inviting further defections from the "party of power" to his side, which is a prudent move, especially as Mr. Yushchenko does not yet have a political foothold in eastern Ukraine. Mr. Zinchenko is one of those politicians who are perceived in the east of Ukraine without hostility because he is remembered there as the organizer of the Russian-language Inter television channel, jointly with Russia's ORT, at the time when ORT retransmission was forbidden in Ukraine.

It is expected that Yushchenko's second major move, after the appointment of an election-campaign manager, will be to sign a coalition accord with the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc. "We will clearly define what personnel responsibility is being sought by each of the teams forming the coalition," Ms. Tymoshenko said on June 11, when asked whether the coalition accord will determine the distribution of government posts after an anticipated Yushchenko victory in the October 31 presidential election.

However, Mr. Yushchenko told Hromadske Radio on June 15 that the accord will not include any clauses pertaining to specific names or government posts, but only determine a general principle for allocating "quotas" of government posts among coalition members. According to Mr. Yushchenko, those quotas should be based on the showing of coalition members in the 2002 parliamentary election. (In particular, Our Ukraine received 23.5 percent of the vote in the nationwide constituency in which parliamentary mandates were contested under a proportional, party-list system, while the Tymoshenko Bloc got 7.3 percent of the vote.)

Mr. Yushchenko said the coalition accord with the Tymoshenko Bloc will be open for any other parties to join. In particular, Mr. Yushchenko stressed, the name of Socialist Party leader Oleksander Moroz will be placed under the text of the accord with a blank space for Mr. Moroz's signature.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus and Ukraine specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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