Presidential race in Ukraine grows tighter as election approaches (09/19/04)

Presidential race in Ukraine grows tighter as election approaches

by Myron V. Hirniak
Special to The Ukrainian Weekly

KYIV - With less than two months before Ukrainians head to the ballot box to elect their next president, recently released poll results show that the race between the two front-runners is growing tighter.

According to recent surveys conducted by several local Ukrainian organizations, 30 percent of voters are ready to cast their ballets for Viktor Yushchenko in the first round of the elections, while 27 percent would vote for Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine's current prime minister and President Leonid Kuchma's designated successor. (The polls' margin of error was +/-2 percent.)

Should a second round of voting take place, 38 percent of the electorate would vote for Mr. Yushchenko, 33 percent for Prime Minister Yanukovych and 13 percent for neither candidate, with another 16 percent opting to keep mum about their choice. Despite figures demonstrating a Yushchenko victory, a whopping 48 percent of those surveyed are certain that Mr. Yanukovych will become the next president.

The poll results come at a time when Ukraine is receiving a large number of international election monitors, including several from the European Union, Russia and other CIS member-countries. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is deploying 52 long-term observers and an additional 800 for Election Day proper. Other international organizations may bring in approximately 1,000 more observers for Election Day.

Surveys have focused also on the public perception of whether candidates have an equal opportunity to campaign, in particular the question of whether there is equal access to the media. According to a poll conducted by the Kyiv International Sociology Institute and the Democratic Initiatives Fund from August 25 to September 3, Mr. Yushchenko of the Our Ukraine bloc would win the presidential election if given equal access to the various mass media outlets. But if current unequal conditions prevail, this same poll suggests that the election will go to Prime Minister Yanukovych.

The Supreme Court of Ukraine, the final arbiter of election-related disputes, has weighed in on the equal access issue. On September 14 it ruled in favor of the Yushchenko campaign, which had recently filed six complaints with the court against the Central Election Commission (CEC) regarding the lack of access by the candidate to many of Ukraine's largest television networks.

"This victory over the actions of separate Central Election Commission members makes impossible their further refusal to consider complaints about TV channels and, finally, obliges it [the CEC] to consider this painful question at the next regular CEC meeting," said Mykola Katernychuk, a member of the Verkhovna Rada and a Yushchenko proxy.

In an apparent response to the Supreme Court ruling and international pressure, President Kuchma appealed to private media with a request that they give equal airtime to all presidential candidates for political advertising. According to the UNIAN news service, the deputy chief of the presidential administration, Vasyl Baziv, on September 10 stated: "Our common task is to provide a democratic, transparent and free election. An unmatched number of presidential candidates have registered (26). Voters have difficulties with receiving enough information about every candidate to make a conscious and reasonable choice. In connection with this, I address to you a demand to treat with understanding the necessity of following the principles of equal opportunities and democracy, and to give airtime for political advertising to each presidential candidate."

Despite its narrow lead in the polls, the Yushchenko campaign claims that its most active phase has yet to begin. Its strategy is based in part on an analysis of the 2002 parliamentary elections, acting on the assumption that most voters make their final decision during the last 60 days of the campaign.

With a style that is up-front and personal rather than strongly reliant on electronic media to get the message out, Mr. Yushchenko is crisscrossing Ukraine and plans to continue doing so up to the last minute, striving to convince voters that he is their best choice and hope for a better Ukraine.

As previously reported, there have been confirmed attempts by individuals sympathetic to Mr. Yanukovych to derail Mr. Yushchenko's campaign travels and busy meeting schedule. As a further attempt to unnerve an already anxious election monitoring group, UNIAN and other wire services recently reported that the Ukrainian government is sending out instructions to regional officials to put foreign election observers under surveillance.

Holding in hand a document obtained from the Poltava Regional State Administration, National Deputy Valerii Asadchev, a Yushchenko representative, quoted parts of the document as requiring information on "the number of observers, their names and the country or organization they represent, which places they have visited and whom they have met, and what queries have been made."

Public opinion polls also provided an interesting look into the psyche of the typical Ukrainian voter. When asked in a poll conducted by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation and Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on September 13 about their views on important individual leadership qualities, 43 percent of Ukrainians responded by stating that their president should be honest, respectable and uncompromised. A further 28 percent felt that their president should be responsible and true to his word. About 24 percent spoke of having a strong and positive political agenda, while 22 percent felt that their president should bring order to Ukraine as quickly as possible using whatever methods necessary.

Other qualities and traits cited ranged from having previous leadership experience and intellectual dexterity to possessing the necessary patience and stamina to deal with Ukrainian politics. The poll reported that 35 percent of those questioned were skeptical of anyone within the presidential candidate pool being honest, respectable and uncompromising.

According to the laws regulating Ukrainian presidential elections, a candidate is declared the winner if he/she receives 50 percent plus one vote in the first round. If neither candidate reaches this threshold, a second round is held and the candidate who receives the majority of votes is declared the winner.

An interesting nuance exists when a second-round candidate drops out of the race. Should this happen, the entire election is invalidated and new elections are mandated within three months.

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