Russian political scientists predict unrest after balloting in Ukraine (10/17/04)

Russian political scientists predict unrest after balloting in Ukraine

by Maryna Makhnonos
Special to The Ukrainian Weekly

MOSCOW - Russian political scientists on September 28 forecast unrest in Ukraine after the presidential elections, predicting that certain groups could protest the results of the vote.

Their comments came during one of several public relations actions in Russia in support of Ukraine's Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych - this one an electronic SMS survey of Ukrainian presidential candidates among Russian cellphone users organized by several Russian telecommunication providers.

Sergei Markov, head of the Moscow-based National Civil Council for International Affairs, predicted that tensions and political violence would rise dramatically in Ukraine after the alleged poisoning of Viktor Yushchenko and in the aftermath of the egg incident involving Mr. Yanukovych.

"This increase in political violence will lead to the polarization of Ukrainian society and will divide it into supporters of Mr. Yanukovych and Mr. Yushchenko," said Sergei Markov. "We warn that mass unrest is possible in Ukraine during first and second rounds of the presidential election."

Mr. Markov added that protests could occur despite what the vote count would show because the opposition had promised demonstrations if their leader failed to win. Mr. Markov added that other groups would demonstrate should Mr. Yushchenko win, to protest his lack of consideration for status for the Russian language in Ukraine and in fear of the widespread support for Mr. Yushchenko among Greek-Catholic clergy in western Ukraine. Mr. Markov said that this clergy, who he alleged was hostile to the [Russian] Orthodox Church, could demand possession of Orthodox parishes in western Ukraine as compensation for their support for Mr. Yushchenko.

Mr. Markov's comments were in line with a heavily distorted election scenario that the Yanukovych campaign and most of the current ruling elite in Kyiv were trying to present to scare Ukrainian voters away from a Yushchenko presidency. The tactic was part of a new and much more aggressive campaign strategy developed by the prime minister's campaign team, which has hired Gleb Pavlovsky to direct it. Mr. Pavlovsky is considered Russia's foremost campaign strategist and is the person who directed the successful public relations campaign in the re-election effort of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

However, not all political observers shared the radical view of the Ukrainian campaign as posited by Mr. Markov. Some respected political experts expressed a more moderate outcome even while agreeing with Mr. Markov on the possibility of rising tensions in Ukraine.

"We, Russians, are not neutral toward elections in Ukraine and do not hide it," explained Viktor Kuvaldin, member of the executive board of the Gorbachev Fund. "However, I consider that Ukraine has neither pro-Western nor pro-Russian candidates; it has two pro-Ukrainian candidates. And it will be difficult for Russia to build relations with each. So, I don't think that we will simply enjoy peace should Mr. Yanukovych win."

Mr. Kuvaldin added that it was hard to predict election results as the chances for both candidates were equal, but he predicted that the level of political tensions would peak on October 30, the eve of the nationwide poll.

Meanwhile, Russian campaigning in support of Mr. Yanukovych continued. Two local cellphone providers, Agregator and INFON, organized an informal survey of support for the Ukrainian candidates. Phone users received SMS text messages that invited them to express their support for a Ukrainian presidential candidate by sending a short text message from their cellphones during the week of September 20-26. A total of 20,471 Russian citizens took part in this public poll and 53.27 percent of them supported Mr. Yanukovych. The other 46.25 percent voted for Mr. Yushchenko.

The organizers of the non-scientific poll did not attempt to mask their support for the Ukrainian prime minister in the upcoming presidential vote in Ukraine.

"We are very interested in the victory of a candidate who will do the best for Russian-Ukrainian relations," said Alexander Stepanov, leader of the Community of Friendship and Cooperation of Russian and Ukrainian people. Mr. Stepanov's roots are in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk, which Mr. Yanukovych headed as oblast chairman before he became prime minister.

Speaking at presentation of the cellphone poll in the Rosbalt Information Agency, Mr. Stepanov said such an informal vote among Russians could attract interest in the elections among them and could even influence the choice made by their Ukrainian relatives in favor of the right candidate.

Mr. Stepanov said he supported Mr. Yanukovych actively in public speeches in Moscow as a representative of the Ukrainian diaspora. "We will do everything to help Ukrainian citizens see their main goal that is, to be with Russian citizens," Mr. Stepanov said.

Yet, Oleksander Rudenko-Desniak, leader of the Association of Ukrainians in Russia, told The Ukrainian Weekly that the Ukrainian ethnic community in Russia does not officially support any of the 24 candidates in the presidential vote in Ukraine. He added that his association unites some 80 communities of the Ukrainian diaspora in Russia, but that Mr. Stepanov's organization was not one of them.

"We have no position toward candidates because we respect every opinion. Our community is focused on national-cultural issues. As for this electronic vote, its results are incorrect and misleading because phone users do not have complete information about all candidates. The Russian media doesn't say anything except that Mr. Yushchenko is the enemy of the people," Mr. Rudenko-Desniak explained.

According to a recent sociological study by the Moscow-based Fund for Public Opinion, some 27 percent of Russian citizens have relatives in Ukraine.

Nonetheless, most of the randomly selected interviewees had no clear understanding of the current situation in Ukraine, as half have never been to Ukraine. Another 3 percent have not visited for more than 10 years, and only 3 percent of them have been to Ukraine in the past year. Some 24 percent of the interviewees expressed interest in the Ukrainian election and 72 percent said they did not.

Some Russian political experts even have acknowledged that they have lost a proper perception of the Ukrainian people, which can only make it more difficult to offer the proper advice concerning the Ukrainian presidential campaign.

"I am not a good expert on Ukrainian issues," said Mr. Kuvaldin. "But the first thing that I understood when I started to study this country during this campaign is that we barely know modern Ukraine and have an even worse understanding of it. It is a misleading knowledge, perhaps comparable to a misunderstanding based on language differences where words could be similar but have different meanings nonetheless."

Speaking at a roundtable of the Unity for Russia Fund, Mr. Kuvaldin added that it was obvious that Ukraine has a greater chance to build democracy than Russia does because of its strong diversity, which forced every Ukrainian politician to consider the interests of its opponents if they expected to win nationwide support.

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