Panel of specialists at Columbia analyzes Yushchenko's first 100 days (05/08/05)

Panel of specialists at Columbia analyzes Yushchenko's first 100 days

by Andrew Nynka

NEW YORK - A panel of Ukrainian specialists convened in late April called Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko's first three months in office mostly successful. But they cautioned people against being overly optimistic about the future of the reform-minded president's tenure.

One of the speakers, Stephen Nix, the director of the Eurasia division at the International Republican Institute, said the Mr. Yushchenko's early April trip to the United States was one of the highlights to date of his presidency.

"In terms of 100 days, Mr. Yushchenko had a very, very successful visit here," Mr. Nix said. "To me the most significant part about it was to role out Ukraine's new foreign policy directed toward membership in the Euro-Atlantic alliance."

Mr. Nix commented on the Ukrainian president's meeting on April 4 with U.S. President George W. Bush - the first for a Ukrainian president in over three years - as well as his meetings with other high-level members of the U.S. government.

According to discussions Mr. Nix had with State Secretary Oleksander Zinchenko and National Security and Defense Council Secretary Petro Poroshenko, "Mr. Yushchenko had excellent meetings with the president, vice-president and secretary of state, all leading to the conclusion that this administration will do everything it can to assist Ukraine in achieving this objective of Euro-Atlantic integration," Mr. Nix said during the panel discussion held at Columbia University on April 21.

Mr. Yushchenko's comments on Euro-Atlantic integration over the past 100 days show how serious the Ukrainian president is about moving the country toward Europe, said Mr. Nix, who also holds a law degree from Georgetown University. "It's a clear break from the past. It's a clear signal to the United States that Ukraine believes that it's a part of Europe, it's the center of Europe, it belongs to Europe," Mr. Nix added.

But, cautioned Dr. Bohdan Vitvitsky, an assistant U.S. attorney in the district of New Jersey, judging the Ukrainian president is not like judging the first 100 days in office of American presidents, such as George H.W. Bush or Bill Clinton. "They had a single mandate, where Mr. Yushchenko has a double mandate," Dr. Vitvitsky said.

The single mandate includes the responsibility of general governance, Dr. Vitvitsky said, while Mr. Yushchenko's responsibilities include the mandate of general governance plus a revolutionary mandate.

"General governance means a mandate to be a country's good chief executive and leader," Dr. Vitvitsky said. "A revolutionary mandate means to advance and implement the goals of the Orange Revolution," the goals of which were, "to put it most generally and to quote various speakers and participants of the maidan [Ukraine's Independence Square], it is to convert Ukraine into a model country."

This revolutionary mandate means President Yushchenko must "change the dynamics of political rule so that government serves the needs of the people; make Ukraine a country where the rule of law prevails as a matter of course; and purge Ukraine of the practice of Ukrainian government lying and deceiving the people," said Dr. Vitvitsky, who holds a doctorate in philosophy from Columbia University.

This double mandate has left Mr. Yushchenko with little time to plan and prepare to take over the reins of power, Dr. Vitvitsky added.

Eugene Fishel, a senior analyst at the U.S. State Department, also said it was difficult to examine how Mr. Yushchenko had done in his first 100 days in office. "It's still to early to evaluate President Yushchenko and his rule so far," said Mr. Fishel, who holds a master's degree in international relations from Boston University. Prior to working with the State Department, Mr. Fishel worked at the National Security Council and the National Intelligence Council.

And while it may be difficult to evaluate Mr. Yushchenko's performance to date, Mr. Fishel did outline a number of obstacles that the Ukrainian president will face in the future. "One challenge for Mr. Yushchenko is whether Our Ukraine will stay together. There are indications that not all members of Our Ukraine will stick together," Mr. Fishel noted.

The State Department official added that Mr. Yushchenko faces a mindset in Ukraine that promotes business as usual. The Ukrainian president will have to bring the economy out of the shadows and he will have to be effective in "convincing the Kuchma people that those days are over," Mr. Fishel said, referring to former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma's loyalists who still hold positions in the Ukrainian government.

In addition to this complication, Mr. Yushchenko faces three other problems, Dr. Vitvitsky said. A preceding administration that did not operate normally, a shortage of qualified personnel, and the presence of a powerful northern neighbor - Russia - that continues to try to exert its influence in Ukraine, have all complicated President Yushchenko's first 100 days.

"With all of this in mind as context, what can we say about Dr. Yushchenko's first 100 days?" Mr. Vitvitsky asked.

"The selection of Yulia Tymoshenko, Boris Tarasyuk and Viktor Pynzenyk and some others have been outstanding," Dr. Vitvitsky said. "Foreign meetings and appearances have been deft and highly successful."

Dr. Vitvitsky also said that Mr. Yushchenko and his administration have been open and forthright with the press in Ukraine. "The administration has to be committed to a policy of candor and honesty," Dr. Vitvitsky said. The Yushchenko administration "seems to be doing this to a very considerable extent," adding that this was being done by participating in numerous interviews with the press.

"In the short time they have been in office, there have been interviews with Mr. Yushchenko, Mrs. Tymoshenko and their ministers, in which government policy is discussed substantively, in a detailed manner and seemingly forthrightly," Dr. Vitvitsky said.

"In public appearances and interviews, the Yushchenko administration has demonstrated thus far that it understands it is accountable to the Ukrainian people, and it fully accepts the notion that it should be held accountable to them," Dr. Vitvitsky said. "Again, by accountable I mean: to explain to the people what is being done and planned, and why given policies and practices are being contemplated or adopted is a key element for building the kind of democratic dynamic and culture that is needed," Dr. Vitvitsky said.

Mr. Nix, the IRI analyst, said he also wanted to "dispel the notion that the West somehow caused, planned and fomented the Orange Revolution."

"I'm here to tell you today that's simply not true," Mr. Nix said. "IRI does a lot of things. What we don't have the capacity to do is turn out 300,000 or a million people in the streets of Kyiv. Nobody has that capacity except the Ukrainian people themselves."

History has shown that in Eastern Europe reformers have roughly a year to make progress, Mr. Nix said, citing reform movements in both Poland and Slovakia as examples. "People generally were willing to give those new governments roughly 10 to 14 months to complete its reform agenda and show results. Otherwise, the people would change their political views and they will begin to support other political forces. Viktor Yushchenko understands that well," Mr. Nix said.

"The First 100 Days of Yushchenko's Presidency: An Analysis" was hosted by Columbia University's Ukrainian Studies Program, which is affiliated with the school's Harriman Institute. The panel discussion was moderated by Prof. Mark von Hagen of Columbia University.

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