ANALYSIS: Analysts turn a critical eye toward Yushchenko's early record (06/05/05)

ANALYSIS

Analysts turn a critical eye toward Yushchenko's early record

by Taras Kuzio
Eurasia Daily Monitor

Ukraine watchers are abuzz about a May 25 article in Lvivska Hazeta, in which the paper's Moscow correspondent called upon Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko to dismiss Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

According to an eyewitness account published in Dzerkalo Tyzhnia/Zerkalo Nedeli on May 21, Mr. Yushchenko did call for Ms. Tymoshenko's resignation in front of Russian oil executives that same week. His request came after she had questioned his authority on three occasions during the meeting held to negotiate a way out of Ukraine's fuel crisis (see Eurasia Daily Monitor, May 18). President Yushchenko later denied that he had called upon his prime minister to resign.

Whatever the particulars of this incident, Mr. Yushchenko seems to no longer be the media darling he was during the Orange Revolution.

On May 18 The Washington Post ran a commentary by Anders Aslund, head of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, titled "Betraying a Revolution." Dr. Aslund outlined his criticism further at a seminar held in Carnegie's Moscow Center. "Betraying a Revolution" comes six months after Dr. Aslund's highly optimistic articles in the Moscow Times (December 1, 2004) and Weekly Standard (December 27, 2004) that had applauded the Orange Revolution.

Other Western and Ukrainian commentators have provided mixed reviews on President Yushchenko's first 100 days in office. One author described this mood swing as an "Orange Depression" leading to "post-revolutionary apathy" (Ukrayinska Pravda, May 18). Nevertheless, Dr. Aslund's article was by far the most scathing attack to date on the record of the Yushchenko presidency and Ms. Tymoshenko government.

Dr. Aslund is co-author of a Blue-Ribbon Commission report drawn up by the United Nations Development Program and the Carnegie Endowment that proposes an extensive array of "new wave" reforms under Mr. Yushchenko (carnegieendowment.org/publications). The commission's proposals were outlined in the Financial Times (January 12) under the title, "Reform in Ukraine Must be Swift and Sweeping." With constitutional reforms reducing presidential power set to go into effect in September, Mr. Yushchenko had a six-month window of opportunity to introduce a radical reform agenda.

A Stratfor (May 20) commentary agreed with the main economic arguments outlined by Dr. Aslund, bluntly noting, "The government has undertaken no economic reforms." Mr. Stratfor points to divisions in the Ukrainian leadership between supporters of free market policies and state regulation. Dzerkalo Tyzhnia/Dzerkalo Nedeli (May 14) places President Yushchenko in the free-market category, while noting that Prime Minister Tymoshenko "is in favor of the government's dominating role in the country's economy."

The lack of economic reforms is compounded, Stratfor and Dr. Aslund believe, by high inflation, declining economic growth, fears of re-privatization, and extravagant social spending. A higher tax burden is also forcing some small and medium-size businesses to again operate in the shadow economy. Mr. Yushchenko has promised to deal with this issue and demanded that governors reduce regulatory measures for registering new businesses.

Ukraine's economic growth of 12 percent last year was the highest in Europe and was unlikely to continue at such a record pace. As polls showed during the election year, most Ukrainians did not personally feel any improvement in their living standards as a consequence of this high growth and did not therefore give credit to the government headed by Viktor Yanukovych.

The criticism of high social spending is misplaced on political-institutional grounds. The Yushchenko team inherited very high pensions and state salaries, which the Yanukovych government had deliberately increased as an election bribe. By increasing state salaries still further, the government seeks to complement a widespread anti-corruption drive by making it no longer necessary for state officials to steal to survive.

President Yushchenko's team also must take into consideration the upcoming 2006 parliamentary elections. They must secure a pro-Yushchenko parliamentary majority if the reforms are to work in the near term. This, in turn, will have a great influence on the success of Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration during a second Yushchenko term, which would begin in 2009.

The authorities in eastern and southern Ukraine in particular may need higher social spending between now and the elections to secure popular support. Different polls show the Yushchenko-Tymoshenko team supported by around half the population, with only 16-24 percent opposed (Drerkalo Tyzhnia/Zerkalo Nedeli, May 14; Ukrayinska Pravda, May 26). On its own, Mr. Yushchenko's People's Union-Our Ukraine party can only muster a maximum of 30-35 percent of the vote. This figure is forcing him to ally with Ms. Tymoshenko and People's Party leader Volodymyr Lytvyn in the 2006 election campaign to secure a parliamentary majority.

The Orange Revolution dramatically improved Ukraine's international image. A growing number of foreign investors are interested in Ukraine but have stopped short of moving from intent to actual investment (Financial Times, May 13). They remain unclear about whether the threat of reprivatization is across the board or officially restricted to a limited number of companies. President Yushchenko and Vice Prime Minister Anatolii Kinakh have spoken of 29 re-privatizations, a figure that Prime Minister Tymoshenko was publicly contesting until Mr. Yushchenko's threat to remove her.

Other areas of concern reflect impatience with certain reforms not yet having been undertaken. These include land reform, which is unlikely with a Socialist agricultural minister, and a neo-Soviet commercial code, which Justice Minister Roman Zvarych has called to be changed. These reforms are more likely to be adopted by next year's Parliament - that is, if it has a pro-Yushchenko majority.

President Yushchenko has launched a challenging agenda, and his second 100 days in office may determine its chances of success.

Dr. Taras Kuzio is visiting professor at the Elliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University. The article above, which originally appeared in The Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor, is reprinted here with permission from the foundation (www.jamestown.org).

| Home Page |