ANALYSIS: SDPU leader Medvedchuk, Kuchma ally, awaits his fate (06/26/05)

ANALYSIS

SDPU leader Medvedchuk, Kuchma ally, awaits his fate

by Taras Kuzio
Eurasia Daily Monitor

In an interview long promised but only given on June 16 to Ukrayinska Pravda, Social Democratic Party United (SDPU) leader Viktor Medvedchuk was asked if he was ready to flee abroad, like many of his pro-Leonid Kuchma allies. He replied, "No, under no circumstances. I made my choice - I remain party leader." And if he were threatened with arrest? "I am ready for everything," he said.

It is difficult to understand Mr. Medvedchuk's calm optimism, except on three grounds. First, as an experienced lawyer and head of the Union of Ukrainian Lawyers, he expects to mount a good defense. Second, he may have been extra careful, unlike his allies, to not leave behind incriminating evidence of his participation in corruption or election fraud. Third, he may be confident that no high-ranking SDPU members will incriminate him by agreeing a plea-bargain deal to reduce their own sentence.

The Yushchenko administration is actively seeking such plea bargains from former Zakarpattia Oblast Chairman Ivan Rizak, an SDPU leader who was arrested last month (see Eurasia Daily Monitor May 18). Mr. Rizak has been promised leniency from charges of extortion, links to organized crime, election fraud and corruption in return for providing evidence against Mr. Medvedchuk. This issue is being personally "decided and controlled not so much by [President Viktor] Yushchenko as by [National Security and Defense Council Secretary] Petro Poroshenko" (Ukrayinska Pravda, June 14).

Although Mr. Medvedchuk has decided to stay in Ukraine and defend himself, two SDPU deputy leaders fled abroad for "health treatment." Mr. Poroshenko is also personally involved with a second high-ranking SDPU official, Ihor Pluzhnykov, president of Inter television channel. Mr. Pluzhnykov is recuperating in the Czech Republic after facing intense pressure to sell the Inter channel to businessmen loyal to President Yushchenko (see EDM, June 10).

A second deputy SDPU leader, Volodymyr Satsiuk, has fled abroad to an unknown destination. Mr. Satsiuk was deputy chairman of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), and his name became well known after Mr. Yushchenko became extremely ill after eating dinner at Mr. Satsiuk's house on September 5, 2004. Mr. Poroshenko also controls the investigation into Mr. Yushchenko's poisoning (rep.in.ua, June 15).

Mr. Satsiuk claims that his house was broken into on May 27. The thieves ignored valuables and stole only files, diaries, computer discs and a cell phone. One week later, Procurator General Sviatoslav Piskun announced that Mr. Satsiuk was being sought for three "heavy crimes" (Ukrayinska Pravda, June 7). Mr. Piskun insisted that Mr. Satsiuk was not being sought over the Yushchenko poisoning but on charges relating to, among other things, his illegal sale of SBU property. Nevertheless, SBU Chairman Oleksander Turchynov added, "I will not hide the fact that we have questions for him about Mr. Yushchenko's poisoning" (Ukrayinska Pravda, June 15).

Mr. Turchynov described the charges as "abuse of his position that led to serious losses for the state" (Ukrayinska Pravda, June 15). An additional charge included forging documents to become a colonel, and then using this rank to be made deputy chairman of the SBU.

Former SBU Chairman Ihor Smeshko, also present during the fateful September 5 dinner, has come forward to defend Mr. Satsiuk. Mr. Smeshko claimed that the SBU had investigated the poisoning but found no evidence of SBU involvement. Mr. Smeshko believes that Mr. Piskun is trying to pin the poisoning on Mr. Satsiuk and himself (Segodnya, June 14). The SBU have had difficulty proving their lack of involvement. The September 5 dinner was the only occasion when Mr. Yushchenko's bodyguards did not test his food.

Interviewed by Russian-language Komsomolskaya Pravda v Ukraine (June 14) Mr. Satsiuk adamantly denied any involvement in the Yushchenko poisoning: "I have never undertaken any crimes." Further still, "I do not regard myself as guilty and do not see any reason to flee." The Procurator General's Office still issued an international warrant to Interpol for his arrest.

Ultimately, the best way to marginalize Mr. Medvedchuk and the SDPU will come if they do not cross the 3 percent threshold in the 2006 parliamentary election. This would seriously erode the credibility of the hard-line, anti-Yushchenko opposition by removing one of its three component parties. (The Party of Regions and the Communists are certain to cross the 3 percent threshold.)

Mr. Medvedchuk is himself a major cause of the SDPU's demise. In a poll that asked if leaders were trusted, three hard-line opposition party leaders received negative ratings. Mr. Medvedchuk obtained the highest with 32 percent. Mr. Medvedchuk has suggested that his replacement as SDPU leader could be Nestor Shufrych, who "represents the essence of the party's face" (Ukrayinska Pravda, June 16). "He is a leader," Mr. Medvedchuk added.

This comment shows how far former Kuchma loyalists such as Mr. Medvedchuk are out of touch with public opinion and reality. In a March poll, the Razumkov Center asked respondents whom they would never vote for: 53.1 percent replied "Shufrych," only slightly less than the highly unpopular Communist leader, Petro Symonenko, who polled 55.3 percent against (uceps.com.ua). Mr. Shufrych also is under investigation for alleged corruption and bribery of voters in his election to parliament in 2002. At this rate, Mr. Medvedchuk will be the last senior SDPU leader left standing.

Dr. Taras Kuzio is visiting professor at the Elliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University. The article above, which originally appeared in The Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor, is reprinted here with permission from the foundation (www.jamestown.org).

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