NEWS ANALYSIS: Division opens in Ukrainian leadership (09/11/05)

NEWS ANALYSIS: Division opens in Ukrainian leadership

by Taras Kuzio
Eurasia Daily Monitor

September 7

It was no secret that the alliance that brought Viktor Yushchenko to power in Ukraine had its disagreements. The alliance, forged in the second round of the 2004 presidential elections, consisted of an eclectic group that ranged from socialists through liberal businessmen, moderate conservatives, and populists.

The main axis has always run between National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Secretary Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. The two camps mainly disagreed on the direction of reform, pitting Mr. Poroshenko's market economic views against Ms. Tymoshenko's state-capitalist orientation (see Eurasia Daily Monitor, July 13). This division has now been eclipsed by one that is potentially more damaging to President Yushchenko, particularly as he prepares to visit the United States to attend the annual opening session of the United Nations General Assembly.

On September 5, Oleksander Zinchenko held a devastating press conference after tendering his resignation as head of the Presidential Secretariat (The Times, September 5 and 6).

Mr. Zinchenko had been an important member of the Yushchenko team. Until 2003 he was a senior figure in the pro-Leonid Kuchma Social Democratic Party - United (SDPU) headed by Viktor Medvedchuk. Mr. Zinchenko was also first vice-chairman of the Verkhovna Rada. Then he defected to Mr. Yushchenko's Our Ukraine after the SDPU was implicated in violent election fraud in the Mukachiv mayoral elections (see EDM, May 6). In a clever strategic move, Mr. Yushchenko appointed Mr. Zinchenko as the head of his presidential campaign.

Mr. Zinchenko used his press conference to accuse key members of the Yushchenko alliance, including Mr. Poroshenko, of corruption (5tv.com.ua/video/143/0/793; Ukrayinska Pravda, September 5). Two factors explain Mr. Zinchenko's broadside.

First, the Presidential Secretariat has been criticized for being "totally ineffective" in terms of controlling the implementation of presidential and government decrees (Ukrayinska Pravda, September 9). When Mr. Zinchenko began to cooperate with Pora leader Vladyslav Kaskiv to improve the effectiveness of the presidential secretariat, Mr. Poroshenko claimed that Mr. Zinchenko intended to head the Pora political party for the 2006 parliamentary elections (Ukrayinska Pravda, September 2; pora.org.ua).

Justice Minister Roman Zvarych had blocked Pora's attempts to create a political party, but the courts ruled that the ministry should register the Pora party and backdate the registration to before March 2005 so that it could contest the 2006 election.

Mr. Zvarych is a close ally of Mr. Poroshenko, who actively defended Mr. Zvarych during the scandal surrounding the minister's fraudulent academic credentials (see EDM, May 4). Mr. Zinchenko loudly criticized Mr. Poroshenko's behind-the-scenes maneuvering and accused Mr. Poroshenko of turning the NSDC into an "all-strong and powerful new NKVD" (Ukrayinska Pravda, September 5).

Prior to his resignation Mr. Zinchenko had called upon President Yushchenko to "halt Poroshenko." During his press conference Mr. Zinchenko demanded Mr. Poroshenko's resignation and accused him of turning the NSDC into a conduit to promote cadres loyal to himself. Mr. Zinchenko also alleged that Mr. Poroshenko sought to control the judiciary and Procurator's Office. In fact, Ukrainian media have dubbed Deputy Prosecutor Viktor Shokin as "Poro-Shokin."

Second, sources close to Mr. Zinchenko have told the Jamestown Foundation that a key factor propelling Mr. Zinchenko into action was the fear that Mr. Poroshenko and his allies would attempt to remove Prime Minister Tymoshenko. Mr. Poroshenko is known to covet the prime minister's job and was visibly unhappy at being denied this position in the new government. Mr. Zinchenko apparently feared that removing Ms. Tymoshenko would badly split the Yushchenko camp and decided to act (Ukrayinska Pravda, September 5).

Besides Mr. Poroshenko, Mr. Zinchenko also targeted Yushchenko adviser Oleksander Tretiakov and the head of the Our Ukraine parliamentary faction, Mykola Martynenko. All three he claimed, were "cynically undertaking their plans to utilize themselves being in power for their own aims" (Ukrayinska Pravda, September 5). Mr. Zinchenko accused all three of corrupt dealings and claimed that they had ignored Mr. Yushchenko's election promise to separate business from politics. As evidence, Mr. Zinchenko cited Mr. Tretiakov's revival of corrupt Kuchma-era practices in the energy and telecommunications sectors. Mr. Tretiakov is also disliked for limiting access to President Yushchenko.

Mr. Martynenko is a wealthy businessman from western Ukraine (EDM, June 22). When Mr. Kuchma was president, Mr. Martynenko controlled the Interport-Kovel Free Economic Zone (FEZ) in the Volyn Oblast. Before Mr. Yushchenko shut them down, the zones could import lucrative goods such as cigarettes, alcohol, coffee and meat duty-free.

Mr. Martynenko has a cozy deal with Minister for Emergency Situations Davyd Zhvania for supplying nuclear fuel, a sector as corrupt as any in the energy field. Mr. Martynenko also heads the parliamentary Committee on Fuel Energy, Nuclear Policy and Nuclear Security.

Messrs. Martynenko and Zhvania backed Our Ukraine in the 2002 parliamentary election and became national deputies. They both belonged to the Razom business group, which unites politically unaffiliated businessmen and is the most influential group within the Our Ukraine bloc. Ms. Tymoshenko, like Mr. Zinchenko, has described Messrs. Martynenko and Zhvania as oligarchs and believes them to be corrupt.

The 2005 annual list of the 100 wealthiest people in Central and Eastern Europe, compiled by the Polish journal Wprost, includes seven Ukrainian businessmen. Besides six oligarchs, the list also includes Mr. Poroshenko, who ranks 95th with an estimated fortune of $350 million.

Continued association with questionable businessmen such as Mr. Poroshenko could ultimately spell the end of the Mr. Yushchenko coalition. A Razumkov Center poll found that the number of Ukrainians who believed that business was being truly separated from politics had declined from 51 percent in April to 34 percent in August (Dzerkalo Tyzhnia/Zerkalo Nedeli, August 27).

If this trend is permitted to continue due to President Yushchenko's inaction, then the Ukrainian public could come to see him as little different from those in power during the Kuchma era.

Dr. Taras Kuzio is visiting professor at the Elliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University. The article above, which originally appeared in The Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Daily Monitor, is reprinted here with permission from the foundation (www.jamestown.org).

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