FACES AND PLACES: Don't panic! All is well (09/18/05)

FACES AND PLACES

by Myron B. Kuropas

Don't panic! All is well

Pointing to corruption at the top, Oleksander Zinchenko, President Viktor Yushchenko's right-hand man, resigned. There was a ripple effect and within hours the top echelon of the Orange coalition was gone.

"So ends the Orange Revolution," gleefully opined The New York Times. President Yushchenko "finally moved to end a political crisis that was disrupting his government and undermining business confidence," intoned the Financial Times. "An act of strength or a sign of weakness?" asked the Wall Street Journal.

So what really happened? Although expectations for change were high during February, March and April, the Ukrainian people were realistic, willing to give their new president time to sort things out.

By the middle of summer, however, anxiety began to creep in. The government appeared to be adrift. The people yearned for change, any change, some dramatic event - a symbolic gesture even - to demonstrate that a new era had truly begun. Instead of taking advantage of the enormous good will he enjoyed, however, Mr. Yushchenko hesitated and the country suffered. According to the Wall Street Journal, "growth in the first half of the year collapsed to 3.7 percent," compared to "13.5 percent in the same period last year." Prices rose. Inflation reached 15 percent.

Spending much time justifiably courting foreign governments, President Yushchenko seemed out of touch domestically. Back-biting within his inner circle, especially between his rich and ambitious prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, and his equally rich and ambitious National Security and Defense Council secretary, Petro Poroshenko.

Support for the government dwindled. The Wall Street Journal reported that an August poll of Ukrainians found that 43 percent "believed the country was on the wrong path, a jump from 23 percent in April. The August poll found just 32 percent felt the country was doing well, down sharply from 54 percent last spring."

It didn't help that the mother of murdered journalist Heorhii Gongadze complained bitterly about the lack of progress by the Procurator General's Office investigating her son's seemingly never-ending case. It was alleged that the same people accused of corruption by Mr. Zinchenko were also guilty of frustrating the Gongadze investigation.

Nor did Viktor Yushchenko help his cause with his reaction to the revelation that his son was openly acting like a royal prince - not quite as bad as Leonid Kuchma's son-in-law who became one of the richest men in Ukraine, perhaps, but inappropriate at best. "Caesar's wife must be above suspicion," as the saying goes. The same holds for Caesar's son.

Why did Mr. Zinchenko, Mr. Yushchenko's campaign chairman, take such a dramatic move? It is inconceivable that he didn't first try to convince Mr. Yushchenko, a gentle man, that all was not well within the coalition. Was the president willing to listen? Did he close his eyes?

Declaring that he was tired of being "a nanny" for his fractious coalition, Mr. Yushchenko finally did what he had to do to preserve an image of leadership and a semblance of order.

He must do more. Quickly. His creation of a committee to investigate the allegations of government corruption made by Mr. Zinchenko and Vice Prime Minister Mykola Tomenko against Petro Poroshenko and his associates is a good first step. This was not easy given that Mr. Poroshenko is godfather to one of the president's children. There are committees and there are committees, however. Some get to the bottom of an issue quickly, most tend to drag their feet.

It is also a healthy portent that Ukraine's president is having press conferences explaining his actions and projecting a transparent administration.

Mr. Yushchenko must encourage the country's top prosecutor to resolve the Gongadze case that has polluted Ukraine's moral climate for far too long. There must be closure so that the country can heal and move on.

Mr. Yushchenko should also pay attention to some of the analyses and commentaries published by Ukrayinska Pravda on September 8. Dmytro Vydrin, director of the Institute for European Integration and Development, suggested that: "In selecting a team, what ought to happen is that one distinguishes between excellent candidates and substandard performers. If the team will be assembled once again on the basis of personal loyalties and on the principle of political approval, this would mean that substandard people would once again be admitted. On the other hand, if the team will be built on the principles of high professionalism, and social and moral responsibility, then the jobs will go to excellent candidates."

Another cogent analysis was made by Vadim Krasov, director of the Institute for Global Strategy, who believes that in acting as he did, President Yushchenko demonstrated the qualities of a political leader as well as a statesman. "It was not possible to tolerate the continuation of a situation in which two parties were splintering the country," said Mr. Krasov. These two forces embodied "different grouped business interests." The Tymoshenko faction "exhibited a revolutionary, Jacobin, Robespeirresque line, while the other [the Poroshenko faction] was more conservative, at some moments even oligarchical and counterrevolutionary." The two "were fighting within the government for access to the powers that be."

As painful as the entire affair appeared to me at first blush - another Ukrainian screw-up, I thought - after some investigation it seems that the Orange Revolution is still evolving. Think of it. A presidential aide resigns because he believes there is too much corruption. Ukraine's president acts decisively, albeit reluctantly. The press takes its shots. The players involved go on television to explain their side of what happened. Analysts offer their sage opinions. The press reports again. And no one is beheaded! Sorry, New York Times. The Orange Revolution is still alive, still well, still a work in progress.

Will there be more of the same in the future? Sure. That's what happens with a parliamentary government patterned after those of France and Italy. We can expect more eruptions, more uncertainty, more power struggles, more re-writing of the Constitution in the future. Don't panic. All is well. Ukraine, God bless her, will survive and prosper!

Myron Kuropas's e-mail address is: kuropas@comcast.net.

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