Lviv's 'Orange voters' now evenly divided (02/05/06)

Lviv's 'Orange voters' now evenly divided

by Zenon Zawada
Kyiv Press Bureau

LVIV - "Orange voters" are about evenly divided in their support for the Our Ukraine Bloc and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc in the 2006 parliamentary election campaign, based on the daily churn of polls that put either bloc in second place behind the Party of the Regions.

Nowhere is this divide more apparent than in the Lviv Oblast, whose students, activists and everyday patriots formed the backbone of the Orange Revolution.

Deciding between the two blocs is a choice they wish they didn't have to make.

"We had hoped there would be one team," said Lviv resident Myrosia Vashenska, 20, who plans to vote for the Tymoshenko Bloc.

"It hurts Ukraine when (Viktor) Yushchenko and Yulia (Tymoshenko) aren't together. But maybe Yulia will improve things," Ms. Vashenska said.

More than 2.2 million Lviv residents voted in the third round of the 2004 presidential elections, according to the Lviv Oblast organization of Ms. Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna Party.

Political experts predict that the Our Ukraine and Tymoshenko blocs will split most of these votes, while nationalist groups such as the Kostenko-Pliusch Bloc and Oleh Tiahnybok's Svoboda Party will earn between 1 and 5 percent each.

The moderate Reforms and Order - Pora bloc also may earn that level of support.

Recent polls show the Tymoshenko Bloc leading in the oblast, but Our Ukraine leading in the city of Lviv, said Ihor Balynskyi, the editor-in-chief of Zakhidna Informatsiyna Corp., an information-analytical news agency based in Lviv.

The fierce competition between the two blocs has gotten nasty.

In recent weeks, some Lviv residents received anti-Semitic postcards in their mailboxes which mockingly depicted the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc leadership as Jews.

The Batkivshchyna Party's Lviv Oblast organization also accused Lviv Oblast Council Chair Petro Oliinyk, who chairs the Our Ukraine People's Union oblast organization in Lviv, of using his government resources to campaign against the Tymoshenko bloc.

"They created a horrible noise offending Yulia Volodymyrivna when Oliinyk publicly called upon Batkivshchyna members to quit the party on television," said Vasyl Stefak, the director of the analytical service of the Batkivshchyna Party's Lviv Oblast organization. "This was done using administrative resources."

Mr. Stefak stated as a further violation the fact that Mr. Oliinyk conducted two or three press conferences a week attacking Ms. Tymoshenko, which were repeated on Lviv television several times a day.

Close advisor Mykola Tomenko convinced Ms. Tymoshenko to go to Lviv, after visiting the city himself and realizing that she needed to defend her record against lies and smears, Mr. Oliinyk noted. In addition to holding two press conferences, Ms. Tymoshenko spent an hour and a half on live Lviv Oblast television explaining her political positions and promoting herself.

It remains to be seen whether Ms. Tymoshenko succeeded in convincing her Lviv supporters that she did the right thing in criticizing the natural gas deal between Ukraine and Russia.

"She quickly reacts to problems that arise," Mr. Balynskyi said. "That gives her the potentially better chance of defeating the Our Ukraine bloc."

Traces of disappointment with the Our Ukraine bloc are also apparent among Lviv voters.

The same day that Ms. Tymoshenko visited Lviv, the party council chairman of the Our Ukraine People's Union (OUPU), Roman Bezsmertnyi, arrived from Kyiv with other party leaders and held a simultaneous meeting. Between 3,000 and 4,000 supporters showed up for the rally, a lackluster turnout, Mr. Balynskyi said.

Then, on Unity Day, January 22, the OUPU Lviv organization planned a march from Lviv Polytechnic University to the Taras Shevchenko statue on Freedom Boulevard. The march was intended to show support for the Our Ukraine Bloc.

After the party posted hundreds of fliers throughout the city, frigid temperatures that plunged to below 0 degrees Fahrenheit convinced even the most enthusiastic Yushchenko supporters to stay home.

At Lviv Polytechnic University, only about 25 supporters showed up, with only a handful wearing orange scarves.

"People are here," said Ihor Kovalisko, leader of the OUPU city staff. "But there wasn't that extreme necessity to risk victims [to exposure of the freezing weather].

The Our Ukraine coalition in Lviv was thrown into disarray when the OUPU oblast organization declared on January 20 that it was supporting a different candidate for mayor than the bloc's other members.

The OUPU is backing media mogul Andrii Sadovyi, while Rukh and the Christian-Democratic Union support former Mayor Vasyl Kuibida for re-election.

The day of the OUPU's endorsement, the Lviv Oblast organization of the Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs declared that it was quitting the Our Ukraine bloc and supporting a third candidate, Oleksander Sendeha, a former oblast council chair.

"There's quite a serious conflict within the Our Ukraine circle," Mr. Balynskyi said. "I don't know how it will turn out. But, more likely than not, Our Ukraine won't be able to endorse a single candidate for mayor."

Political experts are divided over which bloc will win the Lviv Oblast.

The final result will likely be a margin of 2 to 3 percent in the Lviv oblast, Mr. Balynskyi said, giving the Tymoshenko Bloc the slight edge.

Unlike Our Ukraine, the Tymoshenko Bloc has the advantage of being in the opposition.

Halychyna residents also dislike President Yushchenko's close circle of supporters, particularly millionaire businessmen such as Petro Poroshenko, Mykola Martynenko, David Zhvania and Yevhen Chervonenko, he said.

"After the scandals, a large number of voters are convinced that these people are ruining Yushchenko's image," Mr. Balynskyi said. "Now they are crossing over to the Tymoshenko Bloc."

Instead, Lviv voters enjoy seeing nationalists such as Levko Lukianenko and Andrii Shkil achieve prominent positions in the Tymoshenko Bloc.

And, for those Lviv residents wanting more radical change in Ukrainian society, the Tymoshenko Bloc is the clear choice over Our Ukraine, which voters will associate with Mr. Yushchenko's policy of seeking compromise, Mr. Balynskyi said.

Lviv City Council Deputy Anatolii Romaniuk, who also chairs the Center for Political Research in Lviv, gives the Our Ukraine bloc the edge in Lviv Oblast.

The Tymoshenko Bloc's vote to dismiss the Yekhanurov government likely turned off many Lviv voters, said Mr. Romaniuk, who currently is independent of any party.

"She voted as a woman," he said. "She opposed the government emotionally. But, for many people, this raised the question of whether a person who allows herself to be guided by emotions is the best political choice."

However, it's exactly Ms. Tymoshenko's passionate approach to politics that appealed to Volodymyr Yakhvak, 18.

"Only a 'baba' [slang for woman] will bring order to Ukraine!" he said. "During the Revolution, most people only came out on the maidan because Yulia was up there with Yushchenko. Without Yulia, he wouldn't have won the presidency."

Two Ivan Franko University classmates exemplified the conflict among Lviv voters. Lidia Hapliak, 21, supports the Tymoshenko Bloc, while Emilia Krayevska, 20, supports Our Ukraine.

Ms. Hapliak is supporting Ms. Tymoshenko because she believes her to be an intelligent politician.

Ms. Krayevska is a member of the OUPU youth organization and is very fearful that the Party of the Regions will come to dominate the Verkhovna Rada.

"We stood on the maidan for what? For the Party of the Regions to take Parliament and make Russian an official language?" Ms. Krayevska asked. "I am categorically against that!"

That comment triggered a debate between the two.

"But why did Yushchenko have to get rid of Yulia as prime minister?" Ms. Hapliak asked. "Everyone went on the maidan because of Yulia!"

"But she stole!" Ms. Krayevska retorted.

Ultimately, the two reached a conclusion. "It's bad that they split because they were a good team," Ms. Krayevska said. "We support the team."

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