EDITORIAL: Ukraine's elections (03/19/06)

EDITORIAL

Ukraine's elections

In just a week from the date of this issue, Ukraine's citizens go to the polls to elect a new Verkhovna Rada in an election that many see as a vote of confidence, or lack thereof, in the administration of President Viktor Yushchenko. Another way to view the election is as Volodymyr Kulyk of the Institute of Political and Ethnic Studies, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, put it: "it is these elections ... that will determine whether or not the promises of the maidan are kept."

It is important to note that the 2006 parliamentary elections are the first to be based on a purely proportional system, whereby voters vote not for candidates but party lists. That is why, careful readers of this paper will note, the party lists are top-heavy with big names, even stars. For example, pop music icon Sofia Rotaru is second on the Lytvyn's People's Bloc list, talk show host Olha Herasymiuk is fourth on the Our Ukraine list, and former boxing champion Vitalii Klitschko is No. 1 on the Pora-Party of Reforms and Order list (even though he is also running for mayor of Kyiv). The number of candidates on a party's list who get elected depends on the proportion of the votes cast for the party. Furthermore, none of these candidates on the list necessarily has to accept election. If, say, the No. 2 candidate on the list declines, everyone else moves up a slot. In fact, with this system, it is completely conceivable that many of those who ultimately wind up as national deputies will be people unknown to the voters.

Significantly, the new Rada - consistent with the constitutional reforms that went into effect on January 1 - will have more much power. Most notably, it is the Rada majority that will now approve a Cabinet of Ministers. Thus, which party or bloc - or coalition of parties or blocs - has the majority in the new Verkhovna Rada is key.

Among the hopefuls for prime minister are former Prime Ministers Viktor Yanukovych of the Party of the Regions and Yulia Tymoshenko of the eponymous bloc. (Both leaders says their blocs could work with President Yushchenko provided, of course, that they are tapped to be prime minister... ) Also rumored to be interested is the richest man in Ukraine, businessman/oligarch Rynat Akhmetov, also of the Party of the Regions, who is reportedly upset with Mr. Yanukovych. And that's just the tip of the iceberg, as there are plenty of Cabinet posts to be filled.

President Yushchenko, meanwhile, has said it is inexpedient to bargain for government positions before the elections. Furthermore, he said, "to start a coalition from bargaining for posts means discrediting the principle of coalition building" - which should be based on agreement on key ideas.

And, after the elections, the new game begins: the coalition-building that thus far has not succeeded during the period leading up to the election. It remains to be seen whether this post-election coalition building will be any more principled than the pre-election talks about coalitions that have been such an abject failure. No wonder so many of Ukraine's voters are confused, or apathetic, or both; no wonder that as recently as early March a fifth of the electorate was undecided.

Even if the Party of the Regions turns out to be the largest winner in the election, as all the polls are forecasting, it still will need to have partners to form a majority. (Foreign Affairs Minister Borys Tarasyuk told The Washington Times last week that Mr. Yanukovych and his allies will control at most a third of the seats in the new Parliament, while pro-Western factions will control much of the rest.) On the other hand, if Orange sentiments prevail and the Yushchenko and Tymoshenko followers join forces, the two combined should be stronger than the Yanukovych machine. But, there are other scenarios that are being discussed. Thus, it is not at all clear who will be calling the shots in the new Verkhovna Rada and, in turn, in the new government.

Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the 2006 elections will bring about a realization of the hopes of the Orange Revolution.

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