Analysts say parliamentary elections were a 'victory for the Orange Revolution' (04/09/06)

Analysts say parliamentary elections were a 'victory for the Orange Revolution'

by Matthew Dubas

NEW YORK - The Orange Circle, a coalition to further economic advancement and democracy in Ukraine, held a post-election briefing titled "Ukraine's 2006 Parliamentary Elections: Implications for Business and the International Community" at the Ukrainian Institute of America on Wednesday, March 29.

Adrian Karatnycky, the president of the Orange Circle, called the parliamentary elections a "victory for the Orange Revolution," citing the clear majority of votes received by Orange Revolution-affiliated parties.

Mr. Karatnycky's observations and remarks centered on the Orange unity in the recent elections. Two possible coalition scenarios were described, one between Our Ukraine and the Party of the Regions, and the other, a more likely one, uniting Our Ukraine and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc. The latter scenario was described as having a liberal economic policy, providing a business-friendly environment and likely to sway extremists to a more centrist stance.

Mr. Karatnycky also provided a brief synopsis of the election results and introductions of the guest speakers: Alexander Motyl, professor of political science at Rutgers University, and Elehie Natalie Skoczylas, vice-president and director of research at QEV Analytics.

Ms. Skoczylas was first to speak, presenting the importance of the public opinion polls in regards to this election. She commented on the importance of exit polls and their rising popularity, citing four polls funded by various embassies and national associations, in these elections. Ms. Skoczylas said that 30 percent of the population make their decision in the three weeks prior to the election and noted that, during this time, public opinion polls are not allowed to be conducted in Ukraine. Ms. Skoczylas also commented on the effectiveness of Ms. Tymoshenko's campaign, with her use of town meetings to boost public opinion, her antipathy toward Viktor Yanukovych and her emphasis on loyalty to the Orange Revolution.

From this, she drew a parallel between the collapse of Rukh in the 1990s and the splintering of the Orange bloc between Ms. Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko. Ms. Skoczylas offered her observations on some of the likely outcomes of this election, including the formation of new alliances, a rise in national parties, better organized non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and the appearance of fledgling groups that will pull votes away from the majority.

Next to speak was Dr. Motyl, who had just arrived from Ukraine shortly before he was to give his remarks. He commented that the election was "boring," but in a good way. He went on to say that, in democracies, elections are taken as a normal part of life and there is no interruption to the daily flow. Such was the case in Ukraine, according to Dr. Motyl, who said, "These are the signs that Ukraine is well on the way to a consolidated democracy."

He went on to talk about the implications of these events, suggesting that, according to the election results, the Communist Party is a "dead duck." Furthermore, he said the Communists are known for immature shenanigans and he cannot see them being taken seriously in the near future. The fact that Natalia Vitrenko and her opposition party did not win a single seat in Parliament further showed that extremists are on the wane.

To give some perspective, he noted that during the presidential election of 1999 won by Leonid Kuchma, Petro Symonenko, head of the Communist Party, won over 30 percent of the vote. Dr. Motyl attributed this drop in popularity to the fact that many Communists felt marginalized, which, in turn, will weaken the Party of the Regions.

In time, the political environment will be transformed with a radical diminution of the number of political parties, Dr. Motyl continued, with many being absorbed into larger centrist parties. The consensus between parties will be over political rather than programmatic differences. At this time, there is an overlapping of ideology that will foster a stable centrist view.

Dr. Motyl also commented on President Yushchenko's administration today in contrast to Ms. Tymoshenko's efforts. He said that Mr. Yushchenko's performance thus far is "okay," as evidenced by Ukraine's market economy status and likely membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO). However, he criticized Mr. Yushchenko for failing to inspire the public to support him. Ms. Tymoshenko, on the other hand, inspires people to believe in the system, is a dynamic and charismatic leader with her anti-establishment position, and is the "outsider" who is the choice of people.

Commenting on Viktor Yanukovych as a shady political figure, Dr. Motyl described him as a "thug and a clod," a former convict who has recently become skeptical about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and a leader who will likely bring instability.

Regarding economic growth in Ukraine, Dr. Motyl stated that it would build political stability with centrist political thought and will set Ukraine on a path similar to Poland's. From all of this evidence and his observations, Dr. Motyl said the chances have increased for Ukraine to be accepted and integrated into the European Union, it has become more of a certainty that Ukraine will become a member of the WTO, and Ukraine's membership in NATO is more likely.

The briefing was then summarized by Mr. Karatnycky and the floor was opened up to questions from the audience.

For more information on The Orange Circle, readers can log on to www.orangecircle.org, phone (212) 388-0177, e-mail oc@orangecircle.org, or write to The Orange Circle, P.O. Box 20400, New York, NY 10009.

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