Party of Regions reported to be close to forming majority coalition in Rada

by Zenon Zawada
Kyiv Press Bureau

KYIV - The Party of the Regions may be close to forming a parliamentary coalition with certain members of the Our Ukraine bloc or the Socialist Party of Ukraine after leader Viktor Yanukovych announced June 15 that he has enough votes.

"We already have the signatures of a majority in agreement," Mr. Yanukovych said, adding that he expects an accord will be signed by June 20.

In the event of such a coalition, the Our Ukraine bloc could splinter because it's unlikely that all six of its member political parties will come to agreement with the Party of the Regions.

Business-oriented parties, such as the Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs led by Anatolii Kinakh and the Our Ukraine People's Union led by Yurii Yekhanurov, indicated they are willing to compromise on many issues.

However, the People's Rukh of Ukraine led by Borys Tarasyuk and the Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists led by Oleksii Ivchenko are unlikely to cede on ideological issues such as official status for the Russian language and recognition of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army.

The Christian-Democratic Union Party led by Volodymyr Stretovych said it will enter a coalition with the Party of the Regions only if the coalition agreement explicitly supports membership in the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Socialist Party leader Yosyp Vinskyi didn't rule out the possibility that some of his party's deputies would join a coalition with the Party of the Regions, but said the party's leadership would sign no such formal agreement.

Mr. Yanukovych's announcement came after National Deputy Roman Zvarych announced in the Verkhovna Rada the morning of June 15 that the Our Ukraine bloc has begun formal talks with the Party of the Regions.

Earlier in the week, Our Ukraine's leaders said they were quitting coalition talks with the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and the Socialist Party of Ukraine after intense lobbying by Oleksander Moroz for the Verkhovna Rada chairman's position.

"In relation to the Socialist Party's ultimatums regarding the Verkhovna Rada chairman position, Our Ukraine believes further talks to form the coalition are without prospects," an Our Ukraine statement noted. "Our Ukraine expresses deep regret that the personal ambitions of the Socialists' leader ruined the discussions to form a coalition."

Political experts concede that a coalition with the Party of the Regions would decimate the Our Ukraine electorate, much of which would flock to the Tymoshenko Bloc, and potentially splinter the Our Ukraine bloc.

A bloc is a union of several political parties. A faction is a political grouping in the Parliament that may consist of politicians from different parties, but typically reflects the bloc structures.

Five parliamentary factions represent the five political blocs that qualified for Parliament. However, a Party of the Regions coalition may transcend those factions to include Our Ukraine and Socialist Party politicians.

It's too early to get excited over Mr. Yanukovych's claim, which might be a bluff, said Oleh Donii, chair of the Kyiv-based Center for Political Values Research, which is supported by Ukrainian citizens and is seeking international financing.

If Mr. Yanukovych has secured politicians from Our Ukraine or the Socialists to join a coalition, it's likely because they're fed up with the way coalition-building is taking place, Mr. Donii commented.

Our Ukraine is interested in dragging out the coalition-forming process as long as possible, without any results, because the bloc doesn't benefit from a union with the Tymoshenko Bloc or the Party of the Regions, he said.

While President Viktor Yushchenko can dismiss the Parliament after June 25, he isn't required to do so as long as some tenuous agreement is reached.

A coalition agreement doesn't have to designate any posts.

Moreover, dismissal is the last thing Mr. Yushchenko would do because, in a repeat election, it's likely the Our Ukraine bloc will lose much of its votes, Mr. Donii said.

In the ideal scenario for President Yushchenko, the prime minister and Cabinet ministers will remain in power as an acting government - a goal that Our Ukraine's leaders are working towards, Mr. Donii said.

The latest political developments resulted in the first full session on June 14 of the newly elected Verkhovna Rada taking on the appearance of a political circus, as politicians staged their latest public relations ploys.

Ms. Tymoshenko pounced on the news that Our Ukraine was open to talks with the Party of the Regions, declaring that such a coalition had already been in the making and attacking Our Ukraine for betraying the Orange Revolution.

"It's obvious today, and absolutely understood, that this entire drawn-out, demeaning and disgraceful Orange negotiating process was an absolute smokescreen for their true intentions, true plans and true likings," Ms. Tymoshenko thundered.

"And they set the very goal of not creating a coalition, but destroying and discrediting the process ... so that time runs out to form a coalition and then say, 'Look, nothing came of it. So let's turn to a more compromising and understandable process of forming a coalition with the Party of the Regions.' "

As part of a well-orchestrated strategy to solidify her image as the Orange Revolution's torchbearer, Ms. Tymoshenko repeated her stance that her bloc would never unite with the Party of the Regions, and its union with Our Ukraine would benefit Ukraine's elite businessmen at the expense of its common people.

"Once they announce their coalition, we will declare a plan to fight for Ukraine, because we will never give it up for the clans to tear apart," Ms. Tymoshenko told reporters on June 15.

More so, an Our Ukraine-Party of the Regions coalition would certainly benefit the Tymoshenko Bloc, which would become the main opposition force rallying central and western Ukraine against what Ms. Tymoshenko has portrayed as big business interests represented in such an alliance.

To respond to Our Ukraine's criticisms of his political ambitions, Mr. Moroz took to the parliamentary podium and declared that his party was willing to sacrifice the Rada chairman's post for a revived Orange coalition, but only on a certain condition.

"The entire distribution (of posts) will be based on a proportionate system, beginning with the assistant chair of the district administrations, and ending with the ministers, committee chairs, procurator generals and other positions," Mr. Moroz said to strong applause, particularly from Tymoshenko Bloc deputies.

In the afternoon of June 15 Mr. Yushchenko gave a brief speech in which he stated that he agrees with this principle, but understands it to mean that an Our Ukraine politician should be the Rada's chairman because that bloc finished third in the elections.

Mr. Yushchenko also said he was willing to concede the prime ministership to Ms. Tymoshenko, but she had insisted that Mr. Moroz should chair the Rada. The president offered Mr. Moroz the position of National Security and Defense Council chair instead, which was then declined.

Mr. Yushchenko also complained that Ms. Tymoshenko and Mr. Moroz were laying claim to positions they don't have a right to under the Ukrainian Constitution, including those of the ministers of defense and Foreign Affairs, director of the Security Service of Ukraine and chair of the National Bank of Ukraine.

Amidst the politicking in the Rada, the Party of the Regions and the Communists appeared to be the only serious politicians interested in conducting political business.

Their parties were the only ones to make any legislative proposals.

A Party of the Regions national deputy proposed creating an investigative committee to find out why Regions deputies were denied access to the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Council on June 2, the day of elections for the council chair.

Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko called for an investigation into the incident involving the USS Advantage in Feodosiya, demanding the dismissal of Ukraine's defense, justice and foreign affairs ministers.

He mocked the failure of the Orange forces to form a coalition. "Please tell us what do we need to do to help you because you are playing with the Ukrainian people and nothing has been borne to this very day," Mr. Symonenko said.

As a result of the government's ineffectiveness, Ukraine's economic and military security is threatened as a result of rising natural gas prices and the unlawful presence of foreign soldiers, he added.

"The Orange leadership has demonstrated its incapability," Mr. Symonenko said. "In their fight for positions, they forget about government that's supposed to serve the people. And in this manner, they've created a systemic crisis."

In his address to the Ukrainian public, Mr. Yushchenko called on Ukrainians to ignore the claims that Ukraine is in crisis.

Ukraine's Gross Domestic Product growth is 4 percent so far this year, among the best rates in Europe, he said. An inflation rate of 2.8 percent is the slowest in five years. During the last five months, Ukrainians' real income has grown 23 percent, the best rate in Ukraine's 15 years of independence, he noted.

"I call on everyone to be realists and for politicians to refrain from rocking the boat where there are significant processes taking place for the Ukrainian nation," President Yushchenko said.

Copyright © The Ukrainian Weekly, June 18, 2006, No. 25, Vol. LXXIV

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