Orange coalition established (06/25/06)

Orange coalition established

Tymoshenko expected to be PM, Poroshenko the Rada chair

by Zenon Zawada
Kyiv Press Bureau

KYIV - They're giving it another go.

After weeks of posturing and politicking, the political forces that directed the Orange Revolution on June 22 signed a 120-page agreement to form a ruling parliamentary coalition that will attempt to direct Ukraine towards the West and eventual membership in the European Union.

"The coalition according to the new Constitution is active today, when 65 years ago the Ukrainian people, together with the Soviet people, began the fight against our aggressors," said Yulia Tymoshenko, who will likely return as prime minister after being dismissed in September 2005 by President Viktor Yushchenko amidst mutual accusations of corruption.

"And today we begin the struggle for our nation to become democratic, to be cleansed from the dirt of corruption, and for us to be proud of our Ukraine, as it was hoped for by our grandfathers, fathers and all those who fought for independence."

The coalition consists of 243 national deputies, including 129 from the Tymoshenko Bloc, 81 from the Our Ukraine bloc and 33 from the Socialist Party of Ukraine, giving it a slim majority of 17 votes in the 450-member Parliament.

It is, therefore, fragile and tenuous, with Our Ukraine leaders still very reluctant to allow Ms. Tymoshenko to return as prime minister and the Socialist Party differing on many policy issues, in particular opposing Ukraine's membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

The Socialists demonstrated last year that they are willing to break ranks with the coalition on numerous issues, including private property, agriculture, military and defense issues, and foreign economic policy.

After signing the agreement, Socialist Party chair Oleksander Moroz even urged reporters to drop the term "Orange coalition" as part of his effort to rid his party of that association.

"I ask that journalists be accurate - there is a coalition of democratic forces," Mr. Moroz said. "There is no Orange coalition and never was."

The coalition partners agreed to divide the Cabinet of Ministers and parliamentary committee chair positions proportionately, based on the results of the March parliamentary elections.

The Tymoshenko Bloc gained the prime ministership, 11 Cabinet of Ministers posts and 12 parliamentary committee chairs; Our Ukraine gained the parliamentary chairman's post, six Cabinet positions and eight committee chairs; the Socialist Party gained four Cabinet posts and four committee chairs.

No coalition partner has the right to veto the other members' nominations, according to the agreement.

Ms. Tymoshenko will receive support from her bloc for the prime minister's post.

However, it appeared that Our Ukraine was still maneuvering to prevent that outcome, or at least place limitations on the prime minister's power, which has increased since last year, after the new Constitution went into effect on January 1.

On the evening of June 21, the eve of the coalition's signing, Our Ukraine National Deputy Roman Zvarych announced the bloc was nominating Petro Poroshenko to the Rada chair's post.

Our Ukraine had won the right to select the Rada chairman after Mr. Moroz agreed to sacrifice his party's claim to the position at the Parliament's June 14 session.

The nomination of Mr. Poroshenko made it apparent why Our Ukraine had fought so fiercely with Mr. Moroz over the position he once held between May 1994 and April 1998.

Enabling Mr. Poroshenko to become the Parliament's chairman would serve to directly counterbalance Ms. Tymoshenko's influence as prime minister, political experts said.

Our Ukraine also wants the Verkhovna Rada to vote on Ms. Tymoshenko's and Mr. Poroshenko's candidacies together as a package, without separate consideration, Mr. Zvarych said.

Such a package vote would force the Tymoshenko Bloc into supporting Mr. Poroshenko's candidacy.

Speaking with reporters on June 22, Ms. Tymoshenko didn't immediately confirm that she would accept Mr. Poroshenko's candidacy for the Parliament's chairmanship.

"I didn't sleep at all after hearing such great news yesterday night from Our Ukraine regarding personnel appointments," she said. "I won't say anything, so as not to ruin the coalition."

If Ms. Tymoshenko doesn't support Mr. Poroshenko's candidacy, and if Our Ukraine doesn't withdraw it, another crisis can emerge, political experts said.

Oles Donii of the Center for Political Values Research suspects that Our Ukraine will try any political maneuver possible to prevent Ms. Tymoshenko from becoming prime minister.

However, the Tymoshenko Bloc secured the right to nominate the first vice-chairman of the Parliament, which may be enough to ease Ms. Tymoshenko's concerns about Mr. Poroshenko.

The only chance for Mr. Poroshenko to become chairman is through a package vote that forces the Tymoshenko Bloc to support his candidacy, said Andrii Yermolayev, president of the Sofia Center for Social Research.

However, it's also doubtful that Our Ukraine will get the package vote, he said.

"A candidate who can lead the parliamentary majority should be nominated," Mr. Yermolayev said. "Considering his relations with the Tymoshenko Bloc, I doubt Mr. Poroshenko is the right man."

Roman Bezsmertnyi of Our Ukraine denied the bloc is proposing Mr. Poroshenko's candidacy to obstruct Ms. Tymoshenko, stating that the two would complement one another.

"I've known them for a long time, and very well," he said. "They have the same view on 90 percent of the issues."

The Parliament is expected to select its new chairman and the prime minister at the June 27 session.

After Ms. Tymoshenko's announcement that a coalition - the country's first under the revised Constitution that went into effect on January 1 - had been signed, the Party of the Regions immediately went on the offensive.

Former Luhansk Oblast Administration Chair Oleksander Yefremov berated the Yushchenko government for failing to provide heating to thousands of Alchevsk residents during the freezing temperatures this past winter.

"Tens of thousands of people faced with below-zero temperatures lived in cold apartments the entire winter, and nothing was done to fix the state of affairs," Mr. Yefremov said, standing before the Rada. "And today in the city councils, there's not a penny to begin preparations for the wintertime."

Even after Ms. Tymoshenko's 10:45 a.m. announcement that a coalition was signed, Party of the Regions national deputies continued to allege they didn't have enough signatures.

Their accusations began bordering on the bizarre when they began accusing the coalition partners of falsifying signatures on their agreement.

"We went to look at how they formed the collection of signatures and saw that there's one signature across from two surnames," said Serhii Kivalov, the former chair of the Central Election Commission who was directly involved in falsifying the 2004 presidential vote that led to the Orange Revolution.

By the afternoon, when they were finally convinced that 239 signatures were obtained in support of the coalition, the Party of the Regions declared it was in opposition to the coalition.

In a statement released the evening of the coalition signing, the Party of the Regions said the coalition further divides Ukraine and will be short-lived, creating enormous problems for the nation as early as this fall.

"We will fiercely control the government's actions with the goal of avoiding the consequences of its governance, which may have an irreversible character," the statement said. "We retain the right to turn to the people in critical moments."

The coalition is a result of an unprecedented cynicism in dealing for power in order to secure party and individual interests, the statement said.

What may concern the Party of the Regions about the coalition agreement is a provision that would strip national deputies of their immunity from prosecution.

Another provision in the 120-plus page agreement calls for a national referendum on Ukraine's entry into NATO.

Rumors floated about Kyiv that the U.S. government had pressured President Yushchenko to form the pro-Western coalition, but U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor said Vice-President Dick Cheney had no telephone conversation with the Ukrainian president, as some had alleged.

Other provisions in the coalition agreement call for the creation of 1 million jobs annually and for raising the status of the Ukrainian language among society.

Ms. Tymoshenko appeared entirely comfortable in returning to the helm of the Cabinet of Ministers.

If selected as prime minister, she said her first action would be to address Ukraine's natural gas agreement with RosUkrEnergo and the Russian Federation, which she fiercely criticized when it was signed on January 4.

Already, Ms. Tymoshenko's likely prime ministership is drawing worldwide attention.

"If Tymoshenko reviews the gas agreement with Russia, I believe it's highly possible that it will entail a wide-scale gas war that would involve all of Europe," said Sergei Markov, director of the Moscow-based Institute for Political Research.

Socialist Yurii Lutsenko, among the most popular Cabinet members will lose his position as minister of internal affairs to an Our Ukraine candidate, according to the agreement.

Valentyna Semeniuk, another Socialist Party member, will be replaced as State Property Fund chair with a candidate from the Tymoshenko Bloc.

Nina Karpachova of the Party of the Regions will no longer serve as the parliamentary ombudsman for human rights, a position the Socialists secured.

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