IN THE PRESS: Ukraine's parliamentary coalition, the crisis in the Verkhovna Rada (07/09/06)

IN THE PRESS

Ukraine's parliamentary coalition, the crisis in the Verkhovna Rada

"Hope over experience," The Economist, June 29:

" 'No love, no romance, no illusions.' It is like a second marriage, says Oleg [sic] Rybachuk, head of Ukraine's presidential administration, of the politicians who led the 'Orange' revolution of 2004 and are now re-forming the coalition that collapsed acrimoniously last year, only this time with clear-eyed pragmatism.

"The Socialists, President Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine and the bloc led by Yulia Tymoshenko, the prime minister whom he sacked, have agreed to form a new government, on the basis of their small majority in Parliament. ... 'History has given us a second chance,' proclaims Ms. Tymoshenko, who is getting her old job back. She had insisted on that throughout three months of horse-trading since March.

"Was there any other way? Mr. Yushchenko's lot had flirted with the PRU, led by Viktor Yanukovich [sic], the disgraced loser of the presidential election of 2004. The PRU, says Mr. Rybachuk, was 'like a lion waiting for one of [the Orange parties] to leave the camp.' Although it would have annoyed the Americans, an alliance of the two Viktors might have made for decent economic policy, and helped to pacify the eastern and southern bits of the country that back Mr. Yanukovich. But it would have outraged those Ukrainians who thought the revolution meant the end of Mr. Yanukovich and his ilk. ...

"Ideology is not the dividing line in Ukrainian politics: personal ambition and greed are more important. If a coalition of the Viktors looked unlikely, so, after the vitriolic mud-slinging last year, when Mr. Yushchenko accused Ms. Tymoshenko of corruption, did an Orange revival ensue. Has she forgiven the president? 'God forgives,' Ms. Tymoshenko replies piously. She complains too that business and politics in Ukraine are still too intertwined. And she promises that she will not stand against Mr. Yushchenko for the presidency in 2009. He is evidently calculating that it is safer to have her inside the government than in opposition. Do not be too surprised if neither the coalition nor Ms. Tymoshenko's pledge endures."

"Revived Orange coalition needs to reinvigorate Ukraine's reforms," by Taras Kuzio, in the July issue of The Ukrainian Observer magazine, Kyiv:

" ...The election results put President [Viktor] Yushchenko in a lose-lose situation, while [Yulia] Tymoshenko was an instant winner. Building a coalition with either Tymoshenko or [Viktor] Yanukovych would be difficult for Yushchenko. The former would require that Tymoshenko return as prime minister, while the latter would necessitate a deal with the defeated presidential candidate that could lead to Orange voters flocking to Tymoshenko. Tymoshenko meanwhile, could choose between being either prime minister or head of the opposition.

"The best solution to this conundrum might have been a grand coalition of the three Orange forces and the Party of the Regions, or a non-left grand coalition (i.e., without the Socialists). President Yushchenko never took this strategic step, as it was left for others to raise and negotiate as coalition talks dragged out. The merits of a grand coalition might have been numerous, but neither the president nor any of the other parties ever gave such a coalition serious consideration.

"At the end of this long and laborious process, we now seem slated for an Orange coalition on a very shaky foundation. The Orange coalition gives Yushchenko a second, and final, chance to prove himself between now and the end of 2007 - as the 2009 election campaign will unofficially begin in early 2008.

"Public disillusionment in Yushchenko's leadership skills and his ability to effect change (or better still, a break with the Kuchma era) has led to a growing consensus that he is likely to be a one-term president. A successful and durable Orange coalition until 2009 gives him a chance to right this ship. ..."

"Party of Regions blocks Parliament," Eurasia Daily Monitor, July 5:

"Ukraine still has no new Cabinet in place, and the Parliament elected in March still has not started work either. On July 4 President Viktor Yushchenko described this situation as a 'parliamentary crisis.' ... On June 27, the Party of Regions (PRU), which has the largest faction in Parliament, began to physically block the Orange Revolution coalition from electing a speaker from the ranks of Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party and to prevent the approval of Yulia Tymoshenko as prime minister. ...

"The PRU has nothing to lose. There are no legal mechanisms for unblocking Parliament in Ukraine, and after a month of obstruction Yushchenko will be entitled to call new elections, which the PRU, apparently being at the peak of its popularity, would only welcome. There is still no full trust inside the Orange coalition, so any serious obstacle to government formation may kill the coalition. The PRU was formally right, protesting against a simultaneous vote on prime minister and speaker [Verkhovna Rada chairman], as current parliamentary regulations prohibit this. The PRU does not conceal that it expects cracks to appear in the coalition if the speaker is voted on first - should the 242-strong coalition fail to collect the 226 votes needed to approve [Petro] Poroshenko for speaker, Poroshenko's party, Our Ukraine, would likely vote down Tymoshenko.

"Cracks appeared almost immediately. The Socialists suggested that Our Ukraine replace Poroshenko with a different candidate for speaker, a suggestion immediately rejected by Our Ukraine. Korrespondent quoted Socialist Oleksander Baranivskyi, now minister of agriculture, as saying that Ukraine's countryside will not survive another round with Tymoshenko as prime minister. ...

"Afraid for the coalition, Yushchenko backed down. On June 29, he urged talks with the PRU and agreed that the chairmanship of several key committees ... should go to the PRU. On June 30, the head of Yushchenko's secretariat, Oleg Rybachuk, made it clear that Yushchenko had agreed to the PRU's demand that votes for speaker and prime minister should be held separately. They also decided to hold a roundtable meeting between the leaders of the coalition and the PRU on July 3 to unblock Parliament.

"The PRU took this as a sign of weakness, and on July 3, PRU leader Viktor Yanukovych did not turn up for the meeting. He said he would do so only if Yushchenko also attended - a condition that Yushchenko immediately accepted - yet later on the same day the PRU came up with a new set of conditions. ...

"Yesterday, July 4, Tymoshenko's representative Oleksander Turchynov said that the coalition had agreed to the PRU's main demands, including voting for speaker and prime minister separately, giving the chairmanship of several committees to the opposition, and using a secret ballot for deputy speakers. At the same time, he accused the PRU of plotting 'to destabilize Ukraine' and made it clear that the coalition has sticks as well as carrots up its sleeve. ... Yushchenko met with Yanukovych and Communist leader Petro Symonenko twice on July 4, but no solution was apparently found. ..."

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