NEWS AND VIEWS: Ukraine's political disaster averted (07/09/06)

NEWS AND VIEWS

Ukraine's political disaster averted

by Oksana Bashuk Hepburn

There are two items of good news from Ukraine.

After a humiliating defeat against Spain in its first game of the World Cup, Team Ukraine recouped by winning against Saudi Arabia and again against Tunisia, making it into the Group of 16. Way to go.

Even better, after a disastrous three months of political squabbling, the Orange parties in Ukraine signed an agreement on June 22 to form a coalition government in Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada. This must cause great rejoicing among Ukrainians who have seen a deterioration in Ukraine since last March. And, similarly among all democrats, who see a political disaster averted.

The March 26 Rada elections brought enough deputies for the three Orange parties to form a coalition government. The biggest win went to Yulia Tymoshenko's party. This allowed her to claim the prime minister's position. The other two were the president's Our Ukraine party, and the Socialists. Together the three can control the 450-seat Rada. The president's job was to call Ms. Tymoshenko to the PM's position. That is the set-up under the new Constitution of Ukraine.

But the president was not responding. He did not want his former prime minister in the position again. Reasons abounded: she's a woman; she's a better leader; a harder worker; a more competent administrator. The most damning was that after she precipitated a reprivatization deal of the mega steel enterprise Kryvorizhstal and brought $4.2 billion into Ukraine's coffers by its sale to India's Mittal, the oligarchs demanded her head from the president and he obliged by firing her.

The oligarchs were in charge of the country once again. The ineffective coalition-building was, in fact, a stalling tactic on the part of Our Ukraine sanctioned by the president. An impasse was to develop, as it has, leaving the president "no choice" other than to seek rapprochement with the fraudulent Party of the Regions and to lock out Ms. Tymoshenko and her supporters.

After the bad performance with Spain, a sad joke was making the rounds in Ukraine: What is the difference between Ukrainian politics and soccer? No difference. Both bring shame to their country.

All this speculation is history now. It is hard to know what transpired in the endless discussions that all but fell apart last week when President Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine moved toward coalition talks with its former arch-enemy the Party of Regions. It can only be assumed that the pressure from the right sources was enough to sway the President to instruct his party to cease further talks with a pro-Russia, anti-NATO, oligarch-controlled party that caused the formation of the Orange forces and Ukraine's Orange Revolution in the first place with its fraud and disregard for democracy.

Regardless of what happened, the Orange forces came to their senses just in time. Their turnaround may yet salvage the principles of the Orange Revolution, restore the faith of the people in the Orange forces and salvage the image of the president, unthinkable only last week. He was singlehandedly blamed for the mess. His popularity had plummeted to 20 percent.

In Ukraine there is already a sense of fence-mending. The biggest gain is that the Orange coalition will be in power and the party with the greatest votes is to get the prime ministership. This is a great victory for Ms. Tymoshenko, it is also a victory for democracy as at long last the president and other intransigent members of Our Ukraine confirmed the voters' choice. For this, the party is to receive the post of chairman of the Rada, a very powerful position. It will be handled by Petro Poroshenko rather than Oleksander Moroz, the leader of the Socialists, the third Orange party. He had wanted and would be very good for this job. Last week, it became an insurmountable issue forcing the Our Ukraine walkout. Now resolved, Mr. Moroz looks set to become the vice prime minister.

Overall, the distribution in the Rada looks somewhat like this. Thirteen, or so, portfolios or equivalents will go to the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc. These include the all-important oil and gas, and finance ministries. Her party will also nominate the ministers for agriculture, economy and health. The president constitutionally controls several key Cabinet jobs, including foreign affairs and defense. Now, his party will also get regional policy, justice and internal affairs.

In addition to the Cabinet line-up, the coalition agreement indicates the direction this government is planning to take. The proposed agenda indicates a strong emphasis on agriculture and land reform, and on state control of the Russian-manipulated oil and gas. It takes aim at decreasing privileges of the oligarchs by eliminating double standards before the law. Currently the immunity of national deputies protects them from prosecution unless agreed to by the Rada members. This gives credence to a common Ukrainian expression referring to "the crooks in Parliament."

There is no doubt that Ukraine has a very tough political row to hoe. Not the least of it was brought about by President Yushchenko's stalling at calling a government right after the March 26 election when it was obvious who had won. However, it is off the rails now. It is hard not to recall that the Orange forces came back from the brink some 16 months to win big for democracy. This week they did it again, a feat worthy of a celebration particularly when matched with Team Ukraine's equally fine win against Switzerland, propelling Ukaine into the quarter-finals.

In both games hope springs eternal.

Oksana Bashuk Hepburn, president of U-CAN Ukraine Canada Relations Inc., a consulting firm. She is a three-time Ukraine elections observer for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and is writing a book based on these experiences.

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