ANALYSIS: Yushchenko ends crisis, but Orange legacy in doubt (08/13/06)

ANALYSIS

Yushchenko ends crisis, but Orange legacy in doubt

by Jan Maksymiuk
RFE/RL Newsline

August 3

In the early hours of August 3, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko at last put an end to the country's four-month political stalemate with a painful political concession. In a live televised address, Mr. Yushchenko named Viktor Yanukovych, the head of the pro-Russia Party of the Regions and Mr. Yushchenko's main rival in the 2004 Orange Revolution, as the country's new prime minister.

President Yushchenko kept the nation in suspense until the last moment. August 2 was the constitutional deadline for the president to endorse or reject the nomination of Mr. Yanukovych as the new prime minister. A rejection would likely have meant the dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada and a call for new elections.

Following a meeting with political leaders on the day of the deadline, Mr. Yushchenko appeared to hint the impasse had left him no other options. "The leading five Ukrainian political forces did not reach an understanding on the key Ukrainian constitutional priorities, the key priorities for national development," he said. "This is the most worrying. The road map, the [Declaration of National Unity], which was envisaged as an answer to this challenge, unfortunately, was not signed."

This left Ukraine anticipating that the president would use his scheduled television address to announce his rejection of Mr. Yanukovych and the dissolution of Parliament.

Mr. Yanukovych and Oleksander Moroz, the Socialist Party leader and Verkhovna Rada chairman, came to the president for last-ditch anti-crisis talks, which continued deep into the night.

Early on August 3, two hours past the expiration of his deadline, Mr. Yushchenko announced that he had ultimately decided to endorse Mr. Yanukovych for prime minister.

"Following from what I have said, I have made the decision to put forward Viktor Yanukovych for the post of Ukraine's prime minister," the president said. "By this I want to once again stress that I understand the whole complexity in the east and the west of Ukraine, regarding this nomination for the post of prime minister. I call on the country to understand that today we have a unique chance to realize all that we talked about, and to bring the country together for a political understanding."

Mr. Yushchenko went on to say that he, Mr. Yanukovych and Mr. Moroz - together with caretaker Prime Minister Yurii Yekhanurov and Roman Bezsmertnyi from Mr. Yushchenko's Our Ukraine - initialed a so-called Declaration of National Unity. He gave no details about the terms of the declaration, saying only that it preserved the essential domestic and foreign policies mapped out by his presidential election program.

Ukrainian media reported earlier that week that Our Ukraine and the Party of the Regions differed on four points in talks on the declaration: the state language, relations with NATO, relations with Russia, and the status of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.

Although the text of the initialed declaration had not been made known as of writing this article, two things are already clear. First, the Communist Party of Ukraine, which proposed Mr. Yanukovych as a candidate for prime minister jointly with the Party of the Regions and the Socialist Party, refused to sign the declaration. This means the Communists will drop out of the Anti-Crisis Coalition formed last month after the Orange coalition of Our Ukraine, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, and the Socialist Party notoriously failed to agree on a new Cabinet. Second, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, which in the past repeatedly declared it would never strike a coalition deal with Mr. Yanukovych's Party of the Regions, will also go into opposition.

Messrs. Bezsmertnyi and Yanukovych are reported today to have initialed an agreement bringing Our Ukraine into a coalition with the Party of the Regions. The second Anti-Crisis member, the Socialists, is likely to stay in the fold as well.

Does the endorsement of Mr. Yanukovych for prime minister by PresidentYushchenko mean that the 2004 Orange Revolution has suffered a total disintegration? Is Ukraine about to reverse its political course? Both concerns appear to be exaggerated.

Speaking to a crowd of supporters in Kyiv on August 2, Mr. Yanukovych was forced to admit that the Orange Revolution has radically changed the country and that there can be no return to the past. "We have already come to understand that 2004, all things considered, has opened all of our eyes as to who we are, who stands by us, and what our country is," he said. "I think that this has brought us benefits and, of course, purification."

It is true that Mr. Yanukovych objects to Ukraine's membership in NATO, which is a goal fervently pursued by Mr. Yushchenko. However, Mr. Yanukovych's objection reflects the feeling of a majority of Ukrainians about the North Atlantic alliance, rather than his own deep-seated political convictions.

In 2003, during Mr. Yanukovych's previous prime ministership under then President Leonid Kuchma, Kyiv sought expanded cooperation with NATO, and declared NATO membership as a strategic goal. So, there may be room for compromise on this tricky issue between Messrs. Yanukovych and Yushchenko in 2006.

Mr. Yanukovych has also repeatedly declared that he is in favor of Ukraine joining both the World Trade Organization and the European Union, two other goals pursued by Mr. Yushchenko. Therefore, his prime ministership under President Yushchenko may eventually prove to be no less "pro-Western" than those of his two predecessors, Yulia Tymoshenko and Mr. Yuriy Yekhanurov.

However, a big setback for Ukraine's new government is the general disillusionment with political elites in the country, which was provoked by the infamous break-up of the Orange Revolution allies in 2005, the virtual lack of reforms in the country, and what is widely seen as Yushchenko's lack of political will and inability to live up to his election promises.

If the new government manages to adopt a prompt reform plan and put it into practice, President Yushchenko may get a chance "to bring the country together," as he declared while nominating Mr. Yanukovych. If not, Ukraine will most likely become even more bitterly divided and exasperated.

Jan Maksymiuk is the Belarus and Ukraine specialist on the staff of RFE/RL Newsline.

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