Yanukovych sets back Ukraine's NATO bid (09/24/06)

Yanukovych sets back Ukraine's NATO bid

by Zenon Zawada
Kyiv Press Bureau

KYIV - Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych said on September 14 that his government has postponed plans for Ukraine to enter the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), citing its current unpopularity among Ukrainians as his reason.

"We explained that, given the political situation in Ukraine, we will have to take a pause," Mr. Yanukovych told reporters in Brussels after talks with NATO Secretary Jaap de Hoop Scheffer and NATO ambassadors. "We have to convince society."

Only 12 to 25 percent of Ukrainians support NATO membership, Mr. Yanukovych said, adding that a referendum would not be held until social and economic reforms improve living standards.

Mr. Yanukovych's announcement directly conflicted with the foreign policy goals set by President Viktor Yushchenko, who had aimed to sign a Membership Action Plan (MAP) at the NATO summit in Riga, Latvia, at the end of November.

Prime Minister Yanukovych also derailed President Yushchenko's ambitious goal for Ukrainian NATO membership by 2008.

If the current broad coalition government, which consists of both pro-Western and pro-Russian forces, remains in place it's likely that Ukraine will maintain a neutral foreign policy between the West and the Russian Federation for years, if not decades, to come, political observers said. "The nation is oriented a little towards Europe, a little towards Russia," said Oles Doniy, chair of the Kyiv-based Center for Political Values Research, which is supported by Ukrainian citizens and is seeking international financing.

"This will continue for decades. Ukraine will be a buffer until some time passes and there's a consciousness of unity," he said.

That appeared to be Mr. Yanukovych's hope after he stated in Brussels that Ukraine "should be a reliable bridge between the European Union and Russia."

Ukraine intends to broaden its activity with NATO in the context of "mutually beneficial cooperation," he said. A decision on the MAP will be made when the timing is right, he added.

The day after Mr. Yanukovych's Brussels visit, the Ukrainian president harshly criticized his prime minister for what he called "an erroneous speech" in Brussels.

The statement that Ukraine isn't ready to join NATO is wrong and inconsistent with national interests, Mr. Yushchenko said. "I clearly understand that his tone has been formed on the basis of political positions within the coalition and the Regions Party faction," Mr. Yushchenko said.

"I admit that some politicians in this party, perhaps, have a different vision of defense and security policies of the nation. Thus, I would like to say again that this is the basis for pushing our foreign policies forward in this issue," Mr. Yushchenko stated

Mr. Yanukovych's announcement violates Ukrainian law on national security, which requires taking steps toward full NATO integration, Mr. Yushchenko said, and it breeched the Universal of National Unity which is based on Euro-Atlantic aspirations.

The declaration states that the NATO referendum will be held only after all necessary procedures have been implemented, including MAP participation for NATO entry, according to a statement released by the Our Ukraine bloc the same day.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Borys Tarasyuk said Mr. Yanukovych had overstepped his boundaries as prime minister. He cited the Constitution of Ukraine, which stipulates that the president sets the country's foreign policy.

"His statement can be considered as a statement of the leader of a faction," Mr. Tarasyuk said. "As a representative of a different faction and party, I can say that nobody has canceled the essential priorities of our government's foreign policy that the president has underlined."

Minister of Defense Anatolii Hrytsenko, who also is appointed by President Yushchenko, referred to Prime Minister Yanukovych's decision as "groundless, illogical and even, in my view, mistaken."

By allowing Mr. Yanukovych to influence Ukraine's foreign policy so drastically, the conflict made Mr. Yushchenko appear weak in light of the fact that he's charged with the responsibility of determining foreign policy, political experts said.

"Our president sometimes appears as a 'lame duck,' " said Vitalii Kulyk, director of the Kyiv-based Center for Civil Society Research, which is funded by French private grants, as well as donations and lecture fees. "It depends on him if he's able to keep his spheres of influence or lose them. At the moment, there are only losses," he added.

Several days later, Mr. Yanukovych rebuked Mr. Tarasyuk and Mr. Hrytsenko for making statements to the press without consulting him.

The prime minister also said he didn't violate the Universal of National Unity. In his interpretation, the declaration explicitly states that Ukraine's commitment to NATO will depend on the results of the national referendum.

The declaration makes no mention that Ukraine must pursue a MAP, Mr. Yanukovych insisted.

In fact, the Universal of National Unity states the following:

"To resolve the question of NATO membership based on the results of a national referendum, which will be held after Ukraine carries out all necessary procedures."

Some political observers said that Mr. Yushchenko was well aware that Mr. Yanukovych was going to make his statement postponing Ukrainian progress toward NATO and they planned it together as their foreign policy.

"It was not a surprise at all," Mr. Kulyk said, adding that government officials had decided in late August to delay NATO membership because of the negative public sentiment.

To appeal to their respective electorates, however, they arranged for Mr. Yanukovych to appear anti-NATO, while Mr. Yushchenko rebuking him the next day was orchestrated to maintain his pro-Western image among western Ukrainians.

U.S. officials didn't express concern with Mr. Yanukovych's statement.

"Ukraine is supposed to decide for itself how it wants to move forward in its relations with NATO," said Sean McCormack, a State Department spokesman in Washington.

U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor Jr. had expressed the view that a referendum would be held within the next two or three years. Since his appointment, Mr. Taylor has repeated the American government's staunch position that NATO membership is up for the Ukrainian people to decide in a national referendum.

Meanwhile, Bruce Jackson, president of the Project on Transitional Democracies, told Radio Liberty that NATO had already decided in the summer not to extend Ukraine a MAP, based on the lack of public support.

Therefore, Mr. Yanukovych was correct in determining that Ukraine isn't ready to proceed with NATO membership, Mr. Jackson said. "The deciding moment were this summer's demonstrations against military training exercises in Crimea, which convinced everyone that some officials are forcing the decision too strongly," he said.

All of Ukraine's major political parties are manipulating perceptions and information for NATO to their own political gain, and are responsible for Ukrainians' view of the military alliance, Mr. Jackson pointed out.

Perhaps Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski expressed the most disappointment among foreign officials, stating on September 15 that he regretted Mr. Yanukovych's decision to delay pursuit of NATO membership.

While Ukraine has demonstrated cold feet regarding NATO, European Union membership has proven a lot more attractive to Mr. Yanukovych and his circle of eastern Ukrainian industrial magnates.

"We have the firm intention to have excellent relations with the EU and a stable relationship, which in the long term will bring us to European Union accession," Mr. Yanukovych told reporters after a September 14 visit to European Union headquarters in Brussels that included breakfast with External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner.

Ms. Ferrero-Walner said Ukraine has no membership prospects at this moment, but offered to negotiate an enhanced agreement that would create closer political and economic ties, including closer cooperation on energy issues and a free-trade agreement after Ukraine joins the World Trade Organization (WTO).

That same day, Mr. Yanukovych agreed to allow the EU to install meters on gas and oil pipelines along Ukraine's borders to help resolve future conflicts about supplies.

"All that Ukraine performs progressing towards the EU receives powerful backing from society," Prime Minister Yanukovych said, adding that Ukraine is capable of balancing its progress towards EU membership with its economic interests in the Russian Federation.

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