April 22, 2016

Going forward: Three steps

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The two-year battle to defend Ukraine from Russia calls for an assessment.

High marks go to Ukraine’s ATO forces. Originating with the young protesters from the Maidan, the fighters had little but their bare hands to repel the invader. Not only have they withstood Russia, virtually on their own, but their endurance is accumulating other benefits for Ukraine.

Primarily, it’s the image. Ukraine is seen as a country determined to stand up for its rights. Volunteer battalions forced the overhaul of Ukraine’s military and exposed Russia’s aggressiveness. The West is biting back with economic sanctions.

On the negative side, Ukraine’s human and property losses are considerable. NATO is not providing military support nor have any member states sent lethal weapons to aid Ukraine. Russia’s ongoing intransigence and further escalation have failed to get it barred from the international banking system known as SWIFT or to place President Vladimir Putin on the sanctions list.

Instead of giving Russia a response that will make it pay attention, NATO and the West are guided by Russia’s threats of a broader war. Meanwhile, Moscow views non-intervention as a green light to advance its territorial and political interests worldwide. Its hate propaganda mocks the West’s lack of resolve and levels accusations, especially against the United States and NATO, as if they, not Russia, were the world’s aggressor.

Russia’s propaganda masks its rogue image. Its lies and misrepresentations manipulate and lead global opinion. Moreover, EU states, primarily those that did not experience Russia’s rule during its Soviet era – Holland, France, Germany – or are sequestering Russia oligarchs’ money –Austria, Great Britain, Switzerland – are keen to re-engage with Russia.

They pressure the victim, Ukraine, to fulfill one-sided demands of the Minsk agreements. They push for elections in the occupied Donbas, even though Russia is not meeting requirements, including the ceasefire and the total withdrawal from Ukraine’s territory. Many states cite corruption as a reason for distancing themselves from Ukraine.

This pro-Russia diplomatic position is dangerous and gathering steam.

Apparently, in the latest Minsk discussions, France and Germany badgered Ukraine to meet the Minsk demands without equally pressuring the aggressor. This allowed Russia’s representatives to sit back and observe the charade with amusement.

Similarly, it was hard to find a balance in the document summarizing the meeting between the Catholic pope and Russia’s Orthodox patriarch. The horrors of more than 9,000 Ukrainian dead, tens of thousands wounded, nearly 2 million homeless and displaced by Russia in Ukraine, were missing from the final message of rapprochement. It was nothing less than a victory for the criminal.

So was the vote in Holland to keep Ukraine out of the EU. True, Russia funds the extreme left- and right-wing elements there – and elsewhere – that organized the referendum. True, it is nonbinding. It is, however, an anti-Ukraine position and a propaganda tidbit for Russia.

In Canada, the new Liberal government is anxious to make its own mark on foreign affairs: to distance itself from former Prime Minister Stephen Harper who considered Ukraine “family.”

The current minister of foreign affairs, Stephen Dion, seeks re-engagement with Russia primarily as a response to pro-Putin lobbyists parading as pro-business interests, as well as because Russia is an Arctic neighbor. The minister hopes that by talking, or “reasonable accommodation” as he calls it, Russia will be convinced to play by the rules. Good luck.

In recent Arctic maneuvers, Russia employed some 30,000 military personnel, while Canada had 250. It is building 14 new icebreakers to Canada’s one. It seems more prudent for Canada to talk to the U.S. and NATO about its north than Russia.

Despite Ukraine’s courageous efforts, disturbing signs point to a collapse of the free world’s will to stand up to Russia. Democratic values – sovereignty, rule of law, human rights – are being traded in for political, ecclesiastic and business expediencies. They are pursuing their definition of self-interest. Ukraine must do likewise.

Going forward Ukraine must:

•  Maintain independence. This calls for a national emergency-preparedness strategy that turns every citizen into a battle-ready warrior on the front, in politics, the media, business and the diplomatic arena.

•  Recognize that there is no substitute for political power. Form a political party comprising patriots who understand that revolutions start on the streets – Ukraine’s have been brilliant through the ages – but are won by obtaining and holding presidential, parliamentary and judicial power. There is no time to waste; elections are looming.

•  Push for reforms. Here the West, which is interested in doing business, will assist in exerting constant pressure to remove corrupt officials and change laws that enable crime. President Poroshenko must do his job or go.

Every day since the Maidan marks progress in Ukraine, and every day there are setbacks that erase achievements. This must stop. Successful states move forward rather than vacillate. So must Ukraine.

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