April 8, 2016

On Putin, Russia and Eastern Europe

More

Dear Editor:

We all know Vladimir Putin is very intelligent, ruthless, shrewd, devious and a habitual liar. He’s paranoid about NATO, and this drives his desire to re-establish a new USSR . In August 2008 he tested the mettle of the U.S. and NATO by attacking Georgia. Since that was an election year in the U.S., President George W. Bush was in his last months in office and not likely to respond to a provocation.

In 2008, when Ossetian separatist military units shelled Georgian villages, the Georgian military responded, assuming the West would support it. Russia quickly unleashed not a diplomatic effort, but an unprecedented military assault. The results were disastrous for Georgia. The West’s response to this aggression? A “diplomatic solution” in which the aggressor dictated the terms under which he would halt his assault.

Unfortunately, just as military solutions alone are not the answer to all conflicts, neither are diplomatic solutions alone always the way to sustainable peace.

Civil war erupted in Syria, and President Bashar al-Assad resorted to using chemical weapons and barrel bombs. The West refused to put in place a no-fly-zone, and lines-in-the-sand regarding chemical weapons were drawn and then neglected by the U.S. Mr. Putin concluded that the West will not respond to provocation.

Russia’s hosting of the 2014 Winter Olympics presented an opportunity. With Ukraine in transition and the world’s attention focused on the Games, Mr. Putin unleashed thousands of “little green men” to Sevastopol, and prepared special security forces for assignments in eastern Ukraine.

The response from the West? Words! This in spite of the fact that the U.S., Great Britain, Russia and Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, which clearly states that these signatory countries are bound to respect, honor and defend the territory and sovereignty of Ukraine in return for Ukraine’s agreement to rid itself of nukes. So much for trusting Russia, the U.S. and Great Britain to uphold agreements.

With this victory behind him, Mr. Putin set out to complete the second phase of his Ukraine strategy by fomenting a “separatist uprising” in eastern Ukraine. The West resorted to “diplomatically” resolving the war.

Current sanctions are not effective. Additional sanctions should include the freezing of all Russian assets in Europe and North America, and using these assets to compensate Ukraine, Georgia and future victims of Russia’s aggression. And how about really arming Ukraine so that it can defend itself?

In the meantime, Mr. Putin fills the vacuum in Syria, resulting in the decimation of the moderate opposition, ignoring ISIS and strengthening Mr. Assad, and forcing tens of thousands of emigrants into Europe, greatly destabilizing that continent.

Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland and Ukraine: Beware! The conditions are ripe: Europe is internally torn by the migrant and other problems, the U.S. is in an election year, and leaders in both Europe and the U.S. are not willing to act. Look toward yourselves to collectively face Russia, and take any commitment by the West with a very large dose of skepticism.

St. Paul, Minn.

Comments are closed.