February 20, 2015

Putin gets his way, again

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The ink was not even dry on Minsk ceasefire No. 2, yet France was already talking about the possibility of resuming the sale of its Mistral warships to Russia and the U.S. was discussing the possibility of easing sanctions – if the Minsk accord was implemented. By now we see it is not being implemented, nor it is likely to be implemented. Surely anyone who has followed developments in Ukraine’s east can see that. One word – Debaltseve – should be proof enough.

Since Minsk 2 was agreed upon on February 12, more details have surfaced about the negotiations. Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, on the air with the BBC, put it plainly: If the Russian president was interested in peace, he would have agreed to an immediate ceasefire; but he was the only one who wanted to delay the ceasefire. Indeed, the March 13 European Union summit heard a report on those talks, and Ian Traynor of The Guardian reported: “…Putin had resisted pressure for a ceasefire. He hoped to delay the truce by 10 days, the summit heard, in order to force the surrender of up to 8,000 Ukrainian troops who are surrounded in Debaltseve by pro-Russia separatists. Putin was said to have made it clear that Debaltseve had to fall.”

Still, Western leaders persist. The Wall Street Journal reported on February 19 that – now with Debaltseve in the hands of Russian forces (we just won’t call them “separatists”) – German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande think there’s still a chance that Minsk 2 could work. A statement from the French presidency said that leaders “agreed to rigorously implement the entirety of the package of measures agreed February 12 in Minsk.” Though Petro Poroshenko told Mr. Putin, Ms. Merkel and Mr. Hollande in a four-way phone call “not to pretend that the events in Debaltseve comply with the Minsk agreements,” it appears the Western leaders care little about what Ukraine’s president has to say, preferring to believe what they want to believe.

Here in the U.S., President Barack Obama continues his hands-off approach to Ukraine. At home, he has Vice-President Joe Biden doing the phone calling, and sometimes allows Secretary of State John Kerry to get a word in, while in the international arena, he’s let Germany and France take the lead – with the disastrous results of Minsk 2. And just what was the goal of Minsk 2? Many say it was to stop dead in its tracks the move to supply Ukraine with lethal weapons just as the U.S. was leaning toward doing that. Instead we’re left with the administration’s new National Security Policy of “strategic patience” – never mind that Russia has violated every major post-World War II international agreement, from the U.N. Charter and the Helsinki Accords to the Budapest Memorandum…

Readers will recall that back in January President Obama practically gloated in his State of the Union address: “…we are demonstrating the power of American strength and diplomacy. We’re upholding the principle that bigger nations can’t bully the small – by opposing Russian aggression, supporting Ukraine’s democracy, and reassuring our NATO allies. Last year, as we were doing the hard work of imposing sanctions along with our allies, some suggested that Mr. Putin’s aggression was a masterful display of strategy and strength. Well, today, it is America that stands strong and united with our allies, while Russia is isolated, with its economy in tatters.” (Shades of George W. Bush’s “mission accomplished” banner?)

Now it appears to be back to business as usual with Russia. Incredibly, the head of Russia’s FSB (successor to the KGB), Alexander Bortnikov, is leading the Russian delegation to the three-day White House summit on battling terrorism and extremism. The very same Mr. Bortnikov is on the European Union’s and Canada’s sanctions lists, though not, for some reason, on the U.S. list. Furthermore, Russia itself should be labeled a state sponsor of terrorism, among other things for its complicity in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (see Taras Kuzio’s excellent exploration of this topic in Foreign Affairs: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142811/taras-kuzio/ukraine-reignites).

The Obama administration is failing miserably in its handling of the Ukraine crisis. But it can still take action: supply Ukraine with defensive lethal weapons and implement other provisions of the Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014; remove Russia from the international payment-processing system SWIFT; and apply sanctions to top Russian leaders, including Mr. Putin.

We thought we had won a great victory at the end of 2014 with the passage and the signing of the Ukraine Freedom Support Act; we thought the U.S. would indeed provide Ukraine with the lethal weapons it needs to defend itself from Russian aggression. But our struggle continues. That is why it’s important that we demonstrate our strength and resolve at the rally for Ukraine scheduled for March 5 near the White House. And, whether or not you can attend that demonstration, you should be calling the White House. Daily. Memorize this number: 202-456-1111. We cannot allow Vladimir Putin to continue getting his way.

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