February 12, 2015

Second ceasefire deal signed at Minsk summit

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president.gov.ua

At the Minsk summit (front row, from left) are: French President Francois Hollande, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who hosted the meeting. Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen in the background.

KYIV – A second attempt at a ceasefire in Ukraine’s east was brokered on February 12 in Minsk by the heads of state of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine after Western leaders warned it was the last chance to avoid an escalation in violence in the Donbas war, particularly with the U.S. leadership considering providing lethal arms.

The ceasefire agreement – signed by the representatives of the Ukrainian and Russian governments, the “separatist” forces and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (collectively known as the Trilateral Contact Group) – consists of 13 points, including a establishing a ceasefire as of midnight February 15, removing all foreign armies from Ukrainian territory and withdrawing heavy weaponry from what is in effect a newly created buffer zone.

Western and Ukrainians leaders hailed the new agreement as a critical step towards de-escalating the war, which reached its peak the weekend of January 30-February 1 in a battle for control of the Donetsk regional railroad hub of Debaltseve. Several days earlier, terrorists shot rockets into residential sections of Mariupol, a key port city, killing 31 and wounding more than 100.

“It’s not a complex solution and of course not a breakthrough, but Minsk 2 can be a step that can remove us from the spiral of military escalation towards a political impulse after weeks of violence,” said German Foreign Affairs Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

At the same time, much skepticism surrounded its prospects – even in the short term – particularly since many of the agreement’s points were repeated from the first agreement, which was never upheld by the Russian-backed forces.

“Today’s document is practically aimed at the implementation and fulfillment of that agreement,” said Volodymyr Horbach, a political analyst at the Institute of Euro-Atlantic Cooperation in Kyiv, referring to the failed September 5, 2014, Minsk ceasefire. “And we remember it all, that only Ukraine began to implement the Minsk accords. The same thing can happen this time.”

The new agreement emerged after a week of negotiations involving the leaders of what’s known as the “Normandy format” countries: French President Francois Hollande, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.

The talks were prompted by unprecedented fighting between Russian-backed militants and Ukrainian forces, which are still battling for control of Debaltseve, the easternmost city still under Ukrainian control. The terrorists also continued to fire on civilian targets throughout the week, even striking one of the main bus stations in Donetsk.

Even during the overnight negotiations in Minsk, which began the evening of February 11, the pro-Russian forces killed two soldiers and injured 21. As for civilians, three were killed and five injured in the Donetsk towns of Kramatorsk, Debaltseve, Vuhlehirsk and Avdiyivka, reported Vyacheslav Abroskin, the head of the Donetsk Oblast police.

The impetus for the talks was driven by President Hollande and Chancellor Merkel, who declared their official position to be against providing lethal defensive weapons to the Ukrainian army and warned that a peace agreement would be the last chance to avoid an escalation in violence.

That became a real concern after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on February 5 that President Barack Obama has begun to seriously consider supplying Ukraine with defensive weapons after the escalation in warring.

“I think this is one of the last chances,” Mr. Hollande said, as reported by France’s Le Figaro newspaper on February 7. “I think if we don’t achieve progress in finding a long-lasting peaceful resolution, everyone knows what there will be. The name of that scenario is war.”

Little was known about the agreement to be reached until the morning of February 12, when the exhausted Mr. Poroshenko emerged before reporters to tell them that many of Moscow’s demands were “unacceptable” and that he had no good news to report.

A few hours later, Mr. Hollande tried offering a more positive spin, stating that he is cautious about the agreement, which offers “serious hope, but all not done [sic],” tweeted Gavin Hewitt of the BBC.

Perhaps more revealing of the expectations for the pact was the fact that the press conference at which the signing ceremony was supposed to take place was canceled.

Many of the agreement’s points were concessions to the separatists, Serhiy Sydorenko, the editor of the Yevropeyska Pravda news site, reported on February 12.

Although the Ukrainian government had suspended social payments to the Donbas region (including for newborns and pensions), citing the threat that the separatists would pilfer the funds, the agreement calls for renewing them. Mr. Poroshenko vaguely stated that this will happen after local elections are held and “Ukrainian sovereignty is renewed in the occupied territories.”

The Kyiv government still doesn’t recognize the illegal elections of the prime ministers and parliaments of the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics,” but it will have to proceed with elections for local councils, which will serve to legitimize the illegally elected officials who will be involved in organizing those elections.

Organizers of terrorist acts and perpetrators of mass killing and brutality are guaranteed pardons and amnesty in accordance with the agreement, a situation entirely at odds with Mr. Poroshenko’s repeated vows that those guilty of the most violent of crimes would never be pardoned.

In another concession, although the Ukrainian government refuses to recognize the 212 square miles (550 square kilometers) of territory gained by the separatists after the dividing line was established by the Minsk memorandum of September 19, 2014 (following the September 5 ceasefire), the agreement offers its recognition of this territory, requiring the withdrawal of heavy armaments “from the actual contact line.”

Meanwhile, the separatist fighters have to withdraw their heavy arms from the contact line established on September 19, essentially creating a gray, buffer zone between the September line and the actual contact line. Although heavy arms must be removed, soldiers can remain, in effect ensuring that the separatists will continue to maintain control over the territory seized after the first ceasefire.

In addition, heavy weapons are required to be removed from various security zones as wide as 86 miles (140 kilometers) within 16 days of the agreement.

Another concession was on the critical issue of establishing control of the border, through which Russian soldiers and arms continue to pour through, even on the day of the agreement’s signing, according to reports.

The agreement sets a series of tasks for the Ukrainian government to achieve before it’s allowed to restore full control of the Russian-Ukrainian border. These include passing a new law establishing the special status of the separatist-controlled territory, holding local elections and amending the Constitution to provide for decentralization in areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, all of which is supposed to be done by the end of 2015.

“Let’s admit honestly that this schedule is beyond heavy,” Mr. Sydorenko commented. “The failure to uphold it will be more grounds for separatists to claim Ukraine violated the agreement.”

The February 12 agreement revealed the widening rift between Western European countries, which are eager to appease Moscow, and the countries of the so-called Baltic-Black Sea arch, which suffered under Soviet rule and remain most vigilant in defending against Russian expansionism.

Nothing was coordinated or resolved regarding re-establishing Ukrainian control over the border, said Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite, as reported by Yevropeyska Pravda. She described the overall agreement as “absolutely weak.”

Some European countries “would like to have calm at any price,” Ryszard Czarnecki, the vice-president of the European Parliament, who represents Poland, told the UNIAN news agency.

“Merkel and Hollande, without the participation of the EU and representing the economic interests of their states, sacrificed Ukraine. This peace is definitely more beneficial for Moscow than Kyiv because it de facto politically sanctions the gains of the Russian Federation.”

The February 12 agreement was signed by former President Leonid Kuchma representing the Ukrainian government, Heidi Tagliavini of OSCE, Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov, and the self-declared prime ministers of the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics,” respectively, Aleksandr Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky.

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