March 12, 2015

Still waiting… as war goes on

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The Obama administration continues to stall on making a decision about providing lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine. Or, perhaps it has already made its decision, which is to not provide those weapons, but prefers not to admit it publicly. (Indeed, there were reports that Mr. Obama had assured German Chancellor Angela Merkel that the U.S. would not send arms to Ukraine while the Minsk 2 ceasefire was being negotiated and put into effect. Now, many observers are wondering whether those assurances were more far-reaching.)

The administration’s pondering persists despite the fact that numerous credible sources are reporting continued Russian troop movements and while attacks go on against pro-Ukrainian activists in areas outside the war zone such as Odesa and Kharkiv.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on March 10: “We can confirm new transfers of Russian tanks, armored vehicles, heavy artillery and rocket equipment over the border to the separatists in eastern Ukraine.” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on March 11 that “Russia is still in Ukraine” and noted that NATO “has seen and still sees a strong Russian presence and strong support for separatist forces in eastern Ukraine.” Assistant Secretary Nuland further noted: “Since the February 15 ceasefire, the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission has recorded hundreds of violations. Debaltseve, a key rail hub beyond the ceasefire lines, fell to the separatists and Russian forces six days after Minsk was signed and three days after the ceasefire was to come into effect. In Shchastia, in villages near the Donetsk Airport, in Shyrokyne and other towns around Mariupol the shelling continues, as verified by OSCE Special Monitor Authority.”

Why, even Secretary of State John Kerry had stated back on February 24 that the Russians “have been persisting in their misrepresentations, lies, whatever you want to call them, about their activities there [in Ukraine] to my face, to the faces of others, on many different occasions.”

And still, the Obama administration sees only what it wants to see.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee members, who unanimously support sending lethal weapons to help Ukraine defend itself against continuing Russian aggression, are not pleased. Nor are leaders in the House of Representatives, who underscored in a bipartisan letter (see page 3) sent to President Obama: “We should not wait until Russian troops and their separatist proxies take Mariupol or Kharkiv before we act to bolster the Ukrainian government’s ability to deter and defend against further aggression.”

An article by David Francis posted on March 10 on foreignpolicy.com, began with these words: “Republicans and Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee are already angry at the White House for its failure to deliver arms to Ukraine. The administration’s admission that it has also failed to send about half of the $118 million in non-lethal assistance it promised Kiev [sic] isn’t helping matters. …Brian McKeon, the principal deputy undersecretary of defense, said that some of the assistance, which includes radar systems and night-vision goggles, hasn’t been sent to Ukraine because of U.S. logistical or supply chain problems.”

To be sure, the administration did announce, the very next day, that it would send another $75 million worth of nonlethal aid (radios, first-aid kits, surveillance drones, counter-mortar radar systems, military ambulances and Humvees) to Ukraine’s military. And that was welcome. However, stalling on the decision about whether to send lethal defensive arms to Ukraine is the same as saying no. And that is simply unacceptable.

Deputy Undersecretary of Defense McKeon told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the administration was wrestling with the consequences of sending weapons to Ukraine (that’s according to The Washington Post’s account). But we must ask: What are the consequences of NOT sending those weapons? The answer, we believe, is evident in the scenario that unfolded in Crimea.

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