November 30, 2018

“Provocation” or an act of war?

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When Russian ships attacked three vessels of Ukraine’s Navy on November 25, the “incident” was nothing short of an act of war. The Ukrainian ships – two gunboats and a tug – were sailing in the Black Sea toward the Azov Sea when they were confronted by Russian forces near the entrance to the Kerch Strait. The Russian coast guard first rammed the tugboat, and later fired upon and seized all three vessels and their crew. Six of the sailors were wounded; two of them seriously. Twenty-four sailors are now prisoners of war held by Russia; they’re in pre-trial detention for 60 days as ordered by a Russian court in occupied Crimea. The charge: trespassing on “Russian territory.”

Kurt Volker, the U.S. special representative for Ukraine negotiations, tweeted soon after the confrontation at sea: “Russia rams Ukrainian vessel peacefully traveling toward a Ukrainian port. Russia seizes ships and crew and then accuses Ukraine of provocation???” Yes. Exactly.

In the aftermath of this brazen attack, President Petro Poroshenko warned of the threat of “full-scale war,” and his declaration of martial law was approved by the Verkhovna Rada by a vote of 276 to 30 (plus one abstention and 23 not voting). Mr. Poroshenko urged NATO, which condemned the Russian attack, to send ships to the Azov Sea “to assist Ukraine and provide security.” NATO responded that it’s already in the Black Sea and “will continue to assess our presence in the region.” The U.S. – both Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley – spoke out forcefully against Russia’s latest act of aggression and its continuing unlawful conduct.

At the same time, Russia continues to assert its control over Ukrainian territory. More long-range defense missile systems (S-400s) are being sent to Crimea, and it was announced that a new missile early-warning radar station will be built on the peninsula. Those moves follow months of Russian “inspections” of ships entering the Azov Sea and general harassment of ships heading for ports in Ukraine – all designed to transform the Azov Sea into a “Russian lake” – not to mention the ongoing war in the Donbas.

The latest news out of Ukraine indicates that Russia is blocking shipping traffic. Ukraine’s Minister of Infrastructure Volodymyr Omelyan reported that, as of the evening of November 28, “the Ukrainian ports on the Sea of Azov – Berdyansk and Mariupol – are effectively under blockade by the Russian Federation. Vessels are being barred from leaving and entering.” As of November 29, 18 vessels were awaiting entry into the Azov Sea and 17 others were unable to sail out of Berdyansk and Mariupol. The minister also noted this salient fact: “Only vessels moving towards Russian ports on the Sea of Azov are permitted entry.”

Now here’s the bottom line: If President Donald Trump – who has famously stated that his predecessor Barack Obama is responsible for losing Crimea – does not act, he will be the one responsible for losing the Azov region. Thankfully, Mr. Trump tweeted while en route to Argentina on November 29 (as this editorial was being written) that he would not meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the G-20 summit: “Based on the fact that the ships and sailors have not been returned to Ukraine from Russia, I have decided it would be best for all parties concerned to cancel my previously scheduled meeting …” It was a good sign that, perhaps, business would not continue as usual and that President Trump would indeed take a strong stand against Russia’s latest moves to not only destabilize Ukraine but to seize more of a neighboring sovereign state’s territory.

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