The start of the new year in Ukrainian domestic politics has been characterized by turbulence, surprises, and the redrawing of shifting battle lines. The country’s embattled president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, finding himself squeezed from many quarters, seems to have gotten a second wind and decided to stand his ground and carry the fight to his adversaries.
The unexpected banning at the beginning of February by the Ukrainian leadership of several pro-Russian TV channels linked with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s close associate and point man in Ukraine, tycoon and lawmaker Viktor Medvechuk, has captured the headlines. But it is rather more complicated than this.
During the first weeks of 2021, Ukraine witnessed unexpected developments that have in effect shaken up the situation and raised more questions than they have provided answers. New opportunities have opened, but considerable challenges and dangers have also been exposed.
Already domestic and foreign commentators are saying that a turning point has been reached and that a tougher, more assertive, Mr. Zelenskyy has emerged. They conclude that he has hoisted much clearer colors to his mast and has signaled, whatever skeptics and detractors have suggested, that he wants to be seen as the real defender of Ukraine’s independence and democracy – that he is prepared to stand his ground and confront his opponents in an open political contest.
Briefly here are but some of the events of the last weeks that have formed the context and broader factors. First, as the credibility of the president’s own Servant of the People political party has been plummeting, and its status as a majority faction in the Parliament has been undermined, the steady and alarming growth of support shown in the polls of the pro-Russian forces, particularly the Opposition Bloc – For Life has continued.
Viewed as a Russian fifth column not only by various “patriotic” forces, but now openly by the president’s camp as well, Mr. Medvechuk and his partners have made no secret of their disdain for Mr. Zelenskyy, particularly through the media channels he and his associates have controlled. For them, he is a disappointment because he did not turn out to be soft on Russia and its aggression against Ukraine, as they and others had hoped or suspected. Nor has he wavered in promoting Ukraine’s integration into Euro-Atlantic structures.
Mr. Zelenskyy has also proven to be an irritant and obstacle for forces either directly connected with corruption – such as the rogue oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, or the would-be monopolists in the energy sphere, fugitive Dmytro Firtash and Rinat Akhmetov, the populist veteran politician Yulia Tymoshenko, or his most clearly defined political adversary and self-styled leader of “patriotic” forces, former president Petro Poroshenko.
While seeking to destroy the political image of Mr. Zelenskyy, the pro-Russian forces have sought to present themselves as the only “Ukrainian” party of peace and conciliation with Russia. Mr. Medvechuk has also irked Mr. Zelenskyy even more by allowing himself to be used by Moscow, as under Mr. Poroshenko, as a self-styled go-between in the sensitive issue of securing the release of Ukrainian political hostages from the Russian-occupied areas. In reality, he has complicated and blocked, rather than facilitated matters.
Mr. Kolomoisky’s unruly agents with the Servant of the People parliamentary faction, most notably Oleksandr Dubinsky and Maksym Buzhansky, who have in effect spearheaded a sizable group of some 25 and more, have been not only an embarrassment but a debilitating factor.
President Zelenskyy has been humiliated by them in recent weeks as, by withdrawing their votes, they, in de facto league with his factions’ political opponents, twice blocked the appointment of his nominee, the maverick and patriotic technocrat Yuriy Vitrenko, who engineered Ukraine’s Naftogaz’s historic victory over Russia’s Gazprom at the end of 2019, to head the critical energy ministry. This month, throwing down the gauntlet to Mr. Kolomoisky, Mr. Zelenskyy ensured that Mr. Dubinsky was finally expelled from his faction.
Mr. Zelenskyy was undoubtedly buoyed by the inauguration last month of Joe Biden as the new U.S. president, whose team has stressed its strong support for Ukraine, and the departure from the scene of his problematic predecessor. He was also well aware that on the eve of this game-changing event, the U.S. government had imposed sanctions on seven Ukrainians accused of interfering on Russia’s behalf in the internal politics of the U.S., among them Mr. Dubinsky.
On February 2 Mr. Zelenskyy struck out. He enacted a package of sanctions put forward by the National Security and Defense Council, effectively blocking a number of media assets, including 112 Ukraine, ZIK, and NewsOne TV channels that had repeatedly been accused of spreading pro-Russian propaganda. Although formally owned by Taras Kozak – a member of Parliament – they are generally believed to belong to his partner, Mr. Medvechuk.
Mr. Zelenskyy stressed that while he strongly supports freedom of speech, he will not permit “propaganda financed by the aggressor country.”
The head of Ukraine’s State Security Service (SBU) elaborated: “There is a big difference between freedom of speech and outright anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. Freedom of speech ends where signs appear of encroachment on territorial integrity and the sovereignty of Ukraine.” The U.S. and many other Western states have supported Mr. Zelenskyy’s action and many domestic commentators have said it was long overdue.
On the other hand, hardly surprisingly, the pro-Russian forces have condemned this move as an attack on freedom of expression and have launched a challenge in the country’s Supreme Court. Given the corruption still inherent in Ukraine’s legal system – the president is currently in the middle of an ugly battle with the head of the Constitutional Court – the outcome of their appeal is still uncertain and, in this regard, Mr. Zelenskyy has clearly taken a big risk.
Mr. Zelenskyy’s move has caused a major public stir, which of course is being hyped up by the media, particularly those not well disposed towards him. Oligarchs Messrs. Kolomoisky, Akhmetov and Poroshenko also control TV channels that are critical of Mr. Zelenskyy.
Furthermore, the president’s former close political associate, Dmytro Razumkov, who is the influential speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament, is indicating that he has political ambitions of his own. In recent weeks he has opposed Mr. Zelenskyy on several issues including his sanctions against the pro-Russian TV channels.
Assessing the repercussions, Petro Oleshchuk, a political scientist who teaches at the Taras Shevchenko National University in Kyiv, notes that the sanctions have dealt a significant blow to Russia’s information influence in Ukraine. They will not only cause problems for the pro-Russian forces in promoting their messages and political representatives but will also exacerbate divisions among them.
The analyst also suggests that Mr. Zelenskyy’s gambit will also partly pull the rug from under his opponents in the “patriotic” camp, especially among Petro Poroshenko’s supporters.
As Mr. Oleshchuk puts it, “currently, many Ukrainians experience cognitive dissonance. After all, there has long been an opinion in our society that Mr. Zelenskyy was a pro-Russian politician. But after his move on blocking Mr. Medvedchuk’s channels, many who loathe Mr. Zelenskyy have their reality picture fractured. And now moderately patriotic citizens of Ukraine will at least start looking closely at the president.”
Certainly, as Ukraine watcher and business analyst Timothy Ash puts it, “the gloves are now off” and it will also be important to see “how Mr. Putin reacts.” And for that matter we will now see how much external support Mr. Zelensky receives from his Western partners.
Domestic commentators nevertheless place the emphasis on the internal ramifications of what has been happening. Will these developments, as investigative journalist Serhiy Leshchenko puts it, “shift the balance of political power?”
It’s too early to say, but the results of the most recent Ukrainian polls are revealing and worrying. According to the first poll on attitudes towards the closure of the pro-Russian channels published on February 10, 49 percent of respondents supported the sanctions and 41 percent did not.
But even more revealing are the most recent polls, conducted before Mr. Zelenskyy’s moves against the pro-Russian TV channels, indicating the latest trends in public thinking and loyalties toward possible presidential candidates. If elections were to be held now, Mr. Zelenskyy still comes first with a rating of 23.1 percent among those who have already made up their mind, followed by almost 20 percent for pro-Russian representative Yuriy Boiko, and around 18 percent for Mr. Poroshenko.
But the picture is alarmingly different when it comes to support for political parties, where the polls show that 25.7 percent of those who would vote and have made their choice (16 percent of all respondents) support the Opposition Platform – For Life; 20.1 percent (11.9 percent) support Mr. Poroshenko’s European Solidarity; 16.6 percent (14.2 percent) support Servant of the People, and 10.8 percent (8.2 percent) support Ms. Tymoshenko’s Fatherland (Batkivshchyna).
Furthermore, according to the results of a poll conducted on February 2-3, 63 percent support the idea of dissolving Parliament and early elections, while 30 percent do not. Over the past two months, support for early parliamentary elections has increased from 58 percent to 63 percent.
And there is more bad news, as 76.5 percent of Ukrainians believe that the situation in the country is developing in the wrong direction; some 69 percent call the economic situation bad, and 32 percent expect it to deteriorate; more than 90 percent of Ukrainians consider utility tariffs high, and 70.4 percent say that the country’s efforts to fight COVID-19 have been unsuccessful.
In short, the situation is volatile, ripe for manipulation by populists, and unpredictable.