Recent events in Ukraine have underscored the importance of being able to influence U.S. foreign policy. Although concerted efforts to influence American policy regarding events in Ukraine have had some success, the results have been, at best, modest. The Ukrainian community in the United States will be able to influence the country’s foreign policy only if we are actively engaged in the political process.
Our extraordinary efforts of direct assistance to Ukraine need to be complemented by more vigorous and coordinated efforts regarding our government’s foreign policy. The upcoming presidential election provides an opportunity for implementing this strategy. Although the number of persons of Ukrainian ancestry in the U.S. is small – 0.3 percent of the total population – experience has shown that often elections are won or lost by a small margin. Countless examples show that often quality, i.e., effective organization of the voting effort, is more important than quantity of potential voters.
As a service to our community, the Center for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research of Ukrainians in the U.S. at the Shevchenko Scientific Society has produced statistics on the number of potential voters of Ukrainian ancestry in the US. Ukrainian poential voters are persons of Ukrainian ancestry, age 18 or older and citizens of the U.S.
In Table 1 we show the number of Ukrainian potential voters in each state and their percent of all potential voters in that state; the numbers are based on official Bureau of the Census data for 2013 (the most recent data available).
We see that Ukrainian potential voters in Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey make up close to 1 percent of all potential voters in these states. The total number of Ukrainian potential voters in New York and Pennsylvania is around 100,000 each, and close to 50,000 in New Jersey.
In Connecticut, Delaware, North Dakota and the District of Columbia, they account for about 0.5 percent of all voters. These are significant numbers, and their potential effect can be even stronger if we take into account two factors: the proportion of potential voters who register and vote, and the differences in these proportions for different age groups.
In the 2012 election, only 65 percent of all potential voters were registered and 56 percent actually voted. Thus, if all potential Ukrainian voters register and vote, their actual voting power can be almost doubled. Also, it is a well-known fact that the higher the age, the higher the proportion of potential voters registering and voting. In the 2012 election 49 percent of potential voters age 18 to 24 were registered and only 38 percent voted while, for the age group 65-74, 77 percent were registered and 71 percent voted. As Ukrainians have a somewhat older structure than the total U.S. population, this can translate into more actual votes. Potential voters age 18 -24 make up 11 percent of the total among Ukrainians and 13 percent for all of the U.S.; the respective percentages for potential voters age 45-64 are 37 percent and 35 percent.
In Table 2 we present similar data for the 18 largest metropolitan areas. We see that in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Rochester, Ukrainian potential voters account for 1 percent or more of all potential voters. Respective percentages in Portland, Cleveland, Sacramento, New York, Detroit and Seattle are in the 0.7 percent-0.8 percent range. In most of the 18 largest metropolitan areas Ukrainians represent at least 0.5 percent of all potential voters.
Russia’s aggression poses a direct threat not only to Ukraine but also to several Eastern European countries. Some efforts have been made to take joint action regarding this threat and, if well-coordinated, they can be quite effective. An examination of the numbers of potential voters among other Eastern European ethnic groups shows that if Ukrainians join forces with these ethnic groups the result can be a powerful political force at election time.
Table 3 shows that potential voters of a coalition of Eastern European groups (Ukrainians, Poles, Czechs, Slovaks, Hungarians, Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians) represent a significant number of voters in many states. Overall, they represent more than 5 percent of all potential voters in the U.S. – more than 11 million people.
In six states – Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, they account for more than 10 percent of all potential voters.
In 11 states they represent between 5.3 percent, as in North Dakota, and 8.2 percent, as in Ohio, of the total number of potential voters. Additional states in this range are: Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont.
Two additional tables can be found at the center’s website: http://www.inform-decisions.com/stat/, in the section “Voter Statistics.” One table presents the number of Ukrainian potential voters by state and age groups; the second table shows the number of Ukrainian potential voters by county. In both tables one can select the state and see the data for that state. Due to sampling constraints, data is not available for all counties in each state. However, numbers of Ukrainian potential voters are available in many counties, and this can be useful when dealing with politicians at the local level. All tables on the website can be exported to Excel.
This information can be useful for lobbying candidates running for office. Independently of party affiliation, Democrat or Republican, a key criterion for our support of a candidate should be the candidate’s position regarding Ukraine in particular and his/her foreign policy position in general. As the data show, this lobbying can be much more effective and powerful if coordinated with other Eastern European ethnic groups. Objective estimates of potential voters based on official statistics, if adequately presented, are likely to draw a politician’s attention.
