November 20, 2020

Ukraine and the ongoing Belarus factor

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As Ukraine prepares to mark the anniversaries of the beginning of the Orange Revolution on November 22, 2004, and the Euro-Maidan, which was launched on November 23, 2013, and by the beginning of the following year evolved into the Revolution of Dignity, Belarusians on November 16 marked the 100th day of their white-red-white national revolution.

They have revolted against the dictatorship of Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who after 26 years in power has once again imprisoned rivals and rigged the August 9 presidential election. The Belarusian people’s resistance has now lasted longer than the 95-day Ukrainian popular insurrection against the kleptocracy of President Viktor Yanukovych and his pro-Russian lurch when Ukraine was poised to enter into an Association Agreement with the European Union.

Both the political leadership and civil society of Ukraine have been challenged by questions about the extent to which they should support the Belarusian democratic movement. Natural impulses to support a neighbor in need as it seeks to throw off a stifling dictatorship have been counter-balanced by concerns about national interests and the motives of the leaders of the Belarusian liberation movement.

Whether warranted or not, some in Ukraine were initially suspicious that what was under way in Belarus was an attempt by Moscow to replace the obstreperous Mr. Lukashenka through a democratic election with a more appealing but docile pro-Russian candidate.

Mr. Lukashenka, a wary megalomaniac, put an end to that possibility and speculation and forcefully rejected any notion of regime change – whatever its source. But, disowned by his own people, he has had to dispense with any pretense of balancing between Russia and the West, and to prostrate himself before the Kremlin.

Russia’s Vladimir Putin may not like Mr. Lukashenka, but he has chosen to back him for the time being rather than see another democratic revolution succeed on his doorstep. On November 13, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reaffirmed that Moscow – unlike the EU, the U.S., Canada and Ukraine – continues to regard Mr. Luka­shenka as the legitimate president of Belarus, whose economy Russia has long ”subsidized.”

Russia’s endorsement of the Belarusian tyrant and failure to condemn his methods have been turning away those Belarusians prepared out of economic or political reasons to give Moscow the benefit of the doubt. At the same time, the leaders of the Belarusian movement have allayed concerns about any underlying pro-Russian orientation.

The unexpected uprising in Belarus created an additional security dilemma for Ukraine. Already at war with Russia in the Donbas, the prospect of the Russian military now being deployed on the country’s extensive northern border with Belarus gave Kyiv plenty to think about.

There are other factors, beyond the scope of this article, which also need proper consideration in this regard. One is the level of Ukraine’s dependence on petroleum products originating in Russia but received via the Belarusian oil refinery in Mozyr. To what extent is this continuing? Who has gained or continues to profit from this?

Another is this month’s opening by Mr. Lukashenka of Belarus’s first nuclear power station. Built hastily with Russian financing, it is located in Astravets, in the Grodno region, close to the border with Lithuania. How will it affect the energy market in the neighborhood, and more importantly what potential dangers does it pose for neighbors, let alone the Belarusian population?

On the other hand, because of Ukraine’s alignment with the EU and its partners in the immediate neighborhood, most notably Poland and Lithuania, Kyiv was obliged to join them in condemning Mr. Lukashenka’s usurpation of power and brutal methods, and in imposing or preparing sanctions against him.

In this tricky situation, Mr. Lukashenka himself, through his most recent statements and reprehensible behavior, has precipitated the widening of the rift with official Kyiv.

Despite its peaceful nature so far, the Belarusian revolt has faced a far more ruthless terror machine than Mr. Yanukovych dared to employ, or even had at his disposal. This was and remains a situation very different from the Maidan in Ukraine, and the tactics successfully employed by Ukraine’s defenders of democracy have not been appropriate in the Belarusian case.

Mr. Lukashenka has been utilizing an inordinately large army of riot police, soldiers, ordinary police and masked hired thugs reminiscent of the “titushky” during the Euro-Maidan to carry out the repression and intimidation. These servants of the junta, as the population refers to the regime, shoot, beat, gas, injure, maim, torture, imprison and degrade without batting an eyelid.

Almost 30,000 people are reported to have been detained since the protests began. Torture and inhuman conditions in places of detention continue. The popular resistance has been heroic and resilient, but the human cost has been mounting and questions about how to adapt tactics to the ruthless intransigence of the regime are being asked.

On November 11 another peaceful activist, Roman Bondarenka, was beaten to death after being detained. Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) promptly joined its EU partners in condemning the terror that has been unleashed against the Belarus population.

“Ukraine is in solidarity with the EU in condemning violence and repression by the Belarusian authorities that led to the death of Roman Bondarenka. The murderers must be punished, and those who cover them must be condemned by the entire democratic world,” the ministry wrote on its Twitter account on November 13.

The following day, Mr. Lukashenka, noting that Ukraine was ready to join the EU in applying sanctions against him and his regime, struck out at Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In an “interview” with a selected group of invited journalists, Mr. Lukashenka claimed that the Ukrainian leader had shamefully given in to pressure from Western leaders.

“All this wagging by your president, Zelenskyy, all his twists and turns are shameful copycatting of the European Union and the U.S.,” Mr. Lukashenka said. Had the Western powers not imposed sanctions on him, Mr. Zelenskyy “wouldn’t have gone for it either,” he suggested. “This is humiliation of the Ukrainian people, to say the least.” Mr. Zelenskyy’s ratings had dropped sharply, Mr. Lukashenka added, and it was he who needs to think about whether he can hold on to the title of president.

Mr. Lukashenka threatened that Belarus could close the border to Ukrainian goods, including raw materials. “Watch out, because we could shut the border for goods coming from the Ukrainian territory. And then you won’t be able to supply products to our market; you won’t even be able to process Ukrainian products in Belarus before supplying them to other markets, primarily the Eurasian one,” he said.

Mr. Lukashenka also criticized the Ukrainian media for their coverage of Belarus developments. Why is the Ukrainian side “determined to spoil bilateral relations?” he asked rhetorically. Unfortunately, there was no-one present other than a representative of pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk’s TV channel (112 Ukraine TV), to challenge him. It was the only channel in Ukraine to broadcast this scurrilous and rather pathetic attempt by the Belarusian dictator to get his messages across.

In the interview, Mr. Lukashenka blamed the West, and singled out Ukraine as its accomplice in Eastern Europe, for allegedly attempting to instigate turmoil in Belarus with the apparent aim of undermining Belarus’s “sovereign” statehood. “There is no smell of revolution here,” he declared, “because there are no revolutionaries. The driving force behind these riots is an external factor.”

Invoking obsolete anti-Western Cold War-era images, Mr. Lukashenka claimed: “The motive is clear: for over a quarter of a century, Belarus has built an effective model of a social state structure that enables defending national interests.” Hostile forces were seeking “to belittle all these achievements by removing a competitor, destroying out industrial potential,” he declared.

The Belarusian dictator singled out “Americans,” acting with Polish and Ukrainian support, as the alleged main culprits. “I say Poland. And we know who is in these centers: Americans, to a single person. And, unfortunately, they created a second center in Ukraine to work against Belarus. We see it, this center.”

In an attempt to substantiate this accusation, but without offering any concrete details, Mr. Lukashenka announced that “Four people were detained near the Ukrainian border,” “a huge cache” with grenade launchers was “discovered,” and “these four anarchists, who were hiding in Ukraine, came back here, and we detained them. They set fire to several buildings and cars.”

Mr. Lukashenka appears to have been referring to four known Belarusian “anarchists,” all of whom have been detained in Russia and Belarus before, who were “captured” near the town of Mozyr near the Ukrainian border on October 28. They were accused of “terroristic acts” in Soligorsk and Mozyr, where property of the local administration was reported to have been vandalized.

The Ukrainian side has not bothered to respond to Mr. Lukashenka’s claim.

With the EU poised to apply additional sanctions against the Lukashenka junta, and the winner in the U.S. presidential election, Joe Biden, having pledged his support for the Belarusian democratic movement, official Kyiv will also be called upon to show its solidarity – not only in words but in deeds, regardless of the costs and risks.

And perhaps those who will be marking the anniversaries of the Orange Revolution and the Euro-Maidan can ask themselves why tens of thousands have come out in support of the Belarusian freedom movement in Poland and Lithuania, and so relatively few in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.

Finally, Belarusians in the diaspora have united and created a forum for coordinating their activities, as well as an interface with the outside world. On October 31, representatives of Belarusians living in about 50 countries met online and launched the World Belarus Congress. Initial reports suggest their interaction with Ukrainian diasporas in North America have gotten off to a good start.

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